Stop showing your feet for free.We are in a recession, do better. ...

"My best guess is that mortgage rates will decline slightly, on balance, over the next year," Rossman said.Mortgage rates are influenced much more by how the 10-year Treasury is trading and investor expectations, Rossman said."Mortgage rates are the most interesting —and difficult — to predict," said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate.com.Going forward, the trend for mortgage rates will depend on activity in the 10-year U.S. Treasury market, which serves as the benchmark for mortgages and oth ...

Speaking of new jobs, Kevin Hasset versus Kevin Worsh. Do you have an opinion. >> I either I do not make personnel decisions.You know, I think I think I think Kevin is I think Kevin is a fantastic name. Uh, [laughter] you know, it's it's a great >> I'll ask another way. So, so Kevin Hassets, you know, there's been some he's been dogged lately by by being too close to Trump. There's some, you know, there reports that there's been some concern uh voiced to the president around the fact that I don't know, mayb ...

The year is winding down, but several critical pieces of economic data will soon be released.With the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year now in the rearview, there aren't too many days left in 2025. However, before investors head off for the holiday season, there could still be some fireworks that strongly impact the broader benchmark S&P 500 index this year, most of which will come out over the next few days.The government plans to release several important pieces of economic data, some of which w ...

Personally, this may sound wildBut I’m leaning that we see a fiscal situation similar to the post 08 recessionIt may not seem it, but as a country the US is experiencing record highs of debt, and a job market that is shrinking at an alarming rate with unemployment numbers surgingTrumps idea to get rates to 1% is a concern to some with how inflation will play into that, but in due time the economic spend from the individual will be on pace or slower than the economic spend we saw post 08 which helped keep in ...

Economic Indicators - U.S. payrolls are expected to have increased by 35,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that the actual average could be a loss of 20,000 per month instead of the reported average gain of 40,000 since April [1][7] - Marvin Loh, a senior global macro strategist at State Street, indicated that negative job prints would lead to discussions about a potential recession [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street faced pressure as the S&P 500 fell by 1.1% from its all-time high, marking its worst day in three weeks, while the Nasdaq composite dropped by 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 245 points, or 0.5% [2][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has less emphasis on technology stocks, rose by 1% over the past week, contrasting with the Nasdaq composite's decline of 1.6% [5][7] Bond Market Influence - The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 4.18% from 4.14%, which can deter investors from paying high prices for stocks, especially when valuations are perceived as excessive [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 under stable economic conditions, but warns of a potential 20% decline if a recession occurs [1][7]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, with Stifel assigning a 25% probability of a recession occurring [2]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could negatively impact consumer spending that constitutes 68% of GDP [3]. Market Conditions - Stock valuations are historically high, with the median pullback during recessionary periods since World War II averaging 20% [4]. - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble, indicating potential overvaluation [8]. Investment Strategy - Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks to mitigate risks associated with a potential bear market [9]. - Speculative assets have already seen significant declines, suggesting a broader market downturn could follow [5].

Core Viewpoint - Visa Inc. is considered one of the best companies for investors to include in their portfolios due to its high-quality operations [1] Company Analysis - Visa Inc. is recognized for its strong market position and quality, making it a favorable choice for long-term investment [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, with an emphasis on building investment portfolios that can provide financial independence [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 if the US economy remains stable, but warns of a potential 20% decline in the event of a recession [1][2] Economic Outlook - A recession is not the base case for Stifel or other major banks, with a 25% chance assigned to a downturn occurring next year [2] - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [2] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [3] - Consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP, making its decline a significant concern for economic health [3] Stock Valuation Risks - Current stock valuations are historically high, with median pullbacks during recessions averaging 20% and average drops at 23% since World War II [4] - The S&P 500 is considered expensive, and P/E ratios may become critical in a downturn [4] Speculative Assets and Market Behavior - In the event of a bear market, speculative assets are expected to decline first, followed by the broader market [5] - A basket of seven highly-volatile stocks has already seen significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Defensive Investment Recommendations - Despite a positive base case for the S&P 500, Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks [6] - Suggested funds for exposure to defensive assets include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

Tracey Ryniec and Zacks Chief Equity Strategist, John Blank, look at the US economy and 5 stocks to buy in 2026. Visit our website: https://www.zacks.com Visit our Stocktwits account: https://stocktwits.com/ZacksResearch Check out our weekly promotion: https://www.zacks.com/promo If you're interested in our services, please check out Zacks Ultimate: https://www.zacks.com/ultimate/?adid=YOUTUBE&cid=sm-YOUTUBE ...