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And welcome back to Squawkbox. Our exclusive Q3 CFO survey is back with insights from the biggest corporate financial decision makers. Managing risk always top of mind.26% said US trade policy that's the biggest risk to their business. Also the top answer. You can see here consumer demand a close second at 22%.We also asked their views on a possible recession. Wide range of answers here. More than 7%.They see a recession still being a possibility this year. Roughly half see the potential for a major economi ...

Market Outlook - The market is believed to continue its upward trend due to a strong economy and consumer base, despite focus on the Federal Reserve [2] - Consumer sentiment is strong and accelerating, with healthy consumer and corporate credit [3] - Capital markets are experiencing a resurgence, expected to continue for multiple years [3] - While unemployment has slightly increased, it remains at historically low levels [3] - The AI boom continues to gain momentum, presenting opportunities for retail investors to focus on core competencies and specific stocks [4] - October is historically a volatile month, but the absence of substantial leverage in the system suggests that any pullback may be limited [4][5][6][8] - Earnings growth is accelerating, and market participation is broadening, indicating a constructive outlook [9] Investment Strategy - Putnam Investments focuses on individual stock selection rather than broad market plays [10] - Portfolio allocation is closely tied to the S&P 500 sectors [12] - Larger companies ("Goliaths") are seen as winners across various industries due to their scale, operating leverage, and ability to invest in AI [12][13] - Sectors of interest include Amazon, Walmart, Croup, and Co-Star (a commercial real estate data analytics company) [13][14] - The market is considered expensive, but compelling risk-reward opportunities exist at the individual stock level [14]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is expected to experience significant gains in the second year of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, with historical data indicating an average return of over 16% [1][4] - The positive performance is contingent upon the U.S. economy avoiding a recession, as noted by LPL Financial's Chief Equity Strategist [2][6] - The first year of the current rate-cutting cycle has already seen the S&P 500 deliver a strong return of over 17%, surpassing the historical average of 9.6% for the first year [2][4] Historical Performance - Historical analysis over the past 50 years shows a consistent pattern of positive stock performance during rate-cutting cycles, with an average gain of 9.6% in year one and 16.4% in year two [4][6] - The median return for year two stands at 14.4%, indicating robust performance during this period [4] Economic Environment - For the S&P 500 to maintain its upward trajectory, sustained economic growth is essential, which could be supported by stable interest rates, cooling inflation, fiscal stimulus, and ongoing investment in artificial intelligence [7] - The macroeconomic environment is described as "far from assured," with potential headwinds including deficit spending, a stalled job market, legal challenges to tariffs, and geopolitical risks [9]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last week’s video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fed ...

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any in ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's quarter-point rate cut has effectively removed the worst-case scenarios for the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - The rate cut is expected to stabilize economic conditions and support growth [1] - This monetary policy adjustment reflects a proactive approach to managing economic risks [1] - The decision indicates confidence in the economy's resilience despite potential challenges [1]

As the Federal Reserve embarked on the second year of its rate-cutting cycle after its last cut in September 2024, historical data points to potentially significant gains for the S&P 500, with an average return of over 16% in the second year following initial cuts.S&P 500 Poised To Soar In Absence Of RecessionHowever, a crucial caveat remains: these robust returns are contingent on the U.S. economy successfully sidestepping a recession.According to Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, ...

like a. >> Big I can't tell you how excited I am. >> When was the last time we talked about the dynamics.>> I'm in. I'm I'm on the edge of my seat. >> Exactly.All right. Let's talk more about it. Joining us is Claudia Sardine, New Century Advisors chief economist and a former fed economist.Claudia, that that will be interesting, right. We'll see who dissents. We'll see how divergent the dot plots are.What are you looking for. >> Yeah. And I want to underscore that even in normal times, like we would expect ...

Core Insights - The job market is showing signs of deterioration, with a shift towards medium-level layoffs despite previous perceptions of low hiring and firing rates [2][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Trends - Recent data indicates a slowdown in hiring, with layoffs increasing to levels that are at or above normal [3][4]. - Unemployment claims have surged to their highest level in four years, and layoff announcements were 13% higher in August compared to the previous year [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Economists at UBS suggest that the economy may be at a greater risk of recession than previously thought, challenging the narrative of low layoffs [4]. - The analysis indicates that if hiring continues to slow, the labor market could enter a contraction phase [4]. Group 3: External Factors - Many economists attribute the job market's challenges to President Trump's economic policies, particularly the increase in tariffs, which have created uncertainty and increased costs for businesses [5]. - The trade wars have led to reduced hiring and, in some cases, layoffs among current employees [5].