Investment Rating - The report rates NARI Technology as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb31.8, implying a 39% upside based on an unchanged 25X 2026E P/E [1][12][15]. Core Insights - NARI Technology is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year (yoy) in 2025E, surpassing its target of 12% yoy growth, supported by a backlog of Rmb50.7 billion and a strong order intake of over 50% yoy in 1Q25 [1][2][15]. - The company anticipates that its Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) revenue will double in 2025E, driven by significant project execution and new contracts [1][4][7]. - NARI Technology is positioned to benefit from China's structural smart grid needs, with a focus on overseas markets and new growth drivers such as AI integration and market-based electricity price reform [1][5][10][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company targets Rmb64,500 million in revenue for 2025E, indicating a 12% yoy increase, marking a shift in guidance to a more conservative growth outlook after eight years [2][15]. - The 1Q25 revenue growth was reported at 16% yoy, with power grid automation growing by 25% yoy, primarily due to UHV revenue recognition [1][4]. Segment Performance - **Grid Automation**: Revenue in this segment was Rmb28.5 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of over 10% yoy in 2025E, driven by UHV revenue [4]. - **Grid Digitalization**: This segment recorded Rmb12.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a projected growth of close to 10% in 2025E, supported by national policies promoting AI integration and virtual power plants [5]. - **Power Generation**: Revenue reached Rmb12.2 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of 14% yoy in 2025E, despite a moderation in installation growth [8]. - **Industrial Internet**: The segment faced a decline of 24% yoy in 2024 but is expected to return to growth in 2025E [9]. Overseas Business - NARI Technology's overseas revenue reached Rmb3.28 billion in 2024, a 135% yoy increase, contributing 6% to total revenue, with expectations for continued growth in 2025E [10][15]. Expense Management - The company guided an expense of Rmb7,741 million for 2025E, indicating a 19.6% yoy increase, primarily due to increased R&D investments [11][15]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report maintains earnings forecasts unchanged, with a focus on a stable margin profile supported by necessary investments in R&D and a reclassification of interest income [12][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the first quarter was $715 million, flat compared to the fourth quarter, with a 2% increase in volume offset by a 1% decrease in average selling prices [28][29] - Gross profit was $136 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19%, which includes a negative impact from Newport of approximately 200 basis points [30] - GAAP loss per share was minus $0.03 compared to a loss of minus $0.49 in the fourth quarter [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue decreased by 2% versus the fourth quarter, reflecting lower average selling prices associated with new OEM contracts [13] - Industrial market revenue increased by 3% from the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand for smart grid infrastructure projects [15] - Aerospace and defense revenue declined by 5% quarter over quarter due to inventory management by distributor partners [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Book to bill ratio improved for semiconductors to 1.12 and held at 1.04 for passives, indicating positive order intake [10][29] - Distribution customer point of sale (POS) was up in all regions, with a 4% increase worldwide, reflecting improved inventory management [25] - Revenue in Europe increased by 8% sequentially, while The Americas saw a 6% decline in industrial sales [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, focusing on capacity expansion and leveraging growth levers to participate in market upturns [42][43] - Investments between $300 million to $350 million are planned for 2025, with at least 70% allocated to capacity expansion projects [44] - The company aims to enhance its product portfolio and customer engagement through innovation and strategic partnerships [51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about growth in the second quarter, guided by strong demand signals and improved inventory levels [10][51] - The company is closely monitoring macroeconomic uncertainties and is prepared to adjust spending plans as necessary [52] - Future visibility remains uncertain, but there is confidence in sequential growth based on current demand trends [51] Other Important Information - The company has been charging tariff adders to customers since February 2018 to offset increased tariff costs, with minimal impact on gross profit [29][38] - The Newport facility is expected to reach gross margin neutrality by the first half of 2026 as production ramps up [68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution inventory and demand pull - Management noted ongoing efforts to increase product SKUs with distributors, with improvements in POS observed in Europe and The Americas [55][56] Question: Tariff impact on revenue - Management explained that less than 4% of sales are from China, and they are providing customers with alternative manufacturing options to mitigate tariff impacts [62][63] Question: Newport Fab utilization and gross margin impact - Management indicated that Newport Fab utilization is expected to increase quarter on quarter, targeting gross margin neutrality by early 2026 [68][69] Question: Cyclical recovery trends - Management highlighted positive signals in smart grid, aerospace, and AI sectors, with no significant pull-ins observed [75][78] Question: AI business size and market share - The AI business saw more than double the volume in Q1 compared to Q4, with a strong design position across various components [82][83] Question: Outlook for the second half of the year - Management expressed optimism for the second half of 2025, with backlogs building and no negative adjustments in automotive scheduling agreements [85][86] Question: Gross margin outlook despite higher revenue - Management explained that while revenue is expected to increase, tariff impacts and ASP adjustments will keep gross margins relatively stable [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the first quarter was $715 million, flat compared to the fourth quarter, with a 2% increase in volume offset by a 1% decrease in average selling prices [8][28] - Gross profit was $136 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19%, which includes a negative impact from Newport of approximately 200 basis points [30] - GAAP loss per share was minus $0.03 compared to a loss of minus $0.49 in the fourth quarter [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue decreased by 2% versus the fourth quarter, reflecting lower average selling prices associated with new OEM contracts [13] - Industrial market revenue increased by 3% from the fourth quarter, led by Europe, with strong demand for smart grid infrastructure projects [15] - Aerospace and defense revenue declined by 5% quarter over quarter due to inventory management by distributor partners [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Book to bill ratio improved for semiconductors to 1.12 and held at 1.04 for passives, indicating positive order intake [10][29] - Distribution revenue grew by 3%, while OEM and EMS revenue decreased due to market softness [22][23] - Revenue in Europe increased by 8% sequentially, while The Americas saw a 6% decline in industrial sales [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, focusing on capacity expansion and leveraging growth levers to participate in the next industry upcycle [43][44] - Plans to invest between $300 million to $350 million in 2025, with at least 70% allocated to capacity expansion projects [45] - The company aims to enhance its product portfolio through innovation and expand its market participation by working with subcontractors [49][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for a 6% revenue increase in Q2 despite global economic uncertainties, supported by improving market signals [11][54] - The company is closely monitoring customer demand and production timing to adapt to potential market changes [54] - Positive signals during the first quarter support optimism for sequential growth, with demand aligning more closely with end market consumption [53] Other Important Information - The company has been charging tariff adders to customers since 2018 to offset increased tariff costs, with minimal impact on gross profit [29][38] - The Newport facility is expected to reach gross margin neutrality by the first half of 2026, with increasing volume quarter on quarter [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution and SKU Increase - Management noted ongoing efforts to increase SKUs with distributors, with improvements in POS observed in Europe and The Americas, while Asia remained flat [57][59] Question: Tariff Impact - Management explained that less than 4% of sales are from China to the US, and the tariffs have a minimal long-term impact due to alternative sourcing options [63][64] Question: Newport Fab Utilization - The Newport fab is expected to see increasing volume quarter on quarter, targeting gross margin neutrality by early 2026 [68][70] Question: Cyclical Recovery Trends - Management highlighted positive trends in smart grid and aerospace defense markets, with ongoing demand for AI-related projects [75][78] Question: AI Business Size and Market Share - The AI business saw more than double the volume in Q1 compared to Q4, with a strong design position across various components [83][84] Question: Second Half Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the second half of the year, with backlogs building and expectations for growth compared to the previous year [86][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $715 million, flat compared to Q4 2024, with a 2% increase in volume offset by a 1% decrease in average selling prices [7][25] - Gross profit was $136 million, resulting in a gross margin of 19%, which includes a negative impact from Newport of approximately 200 basis points [28] - Book to bill ratio improved to 1.08, with semiconductors at 1.12 and passives at 1.04, marking the second consecutive quarter with a book to bill greater than one [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automotive revenue decreased by 2% compared to Q4 2024, reflecting lower average selling prices due to new OEM contracts [11] - Industrial market revenue increased by 3% from Q4 2024, driven by strong demand for smart grid infrastructure projects [13] - Aerospace and defense revenue declined by 5% quarter over quarter, while medical market results were mixed, with improved orders in The Americas but mixed results in Europe and Asia [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Distribution customer point of sale (POS) was up in all regions, with a 4% increase worldwide, reflecting a normalization of inventory levels [8][22] - Revenue in Europe increased by 8% sequentially, while The Americas saw a 6% decline in industrial sales [23] - AI-related shipments increased significantly, more than doubling compared to Q4 2024, indicating strong demand for AI servers and related products [80] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its five-year strategic plan, focusing on capacity expansion and leveraging growth levers to participate in market upturns [40][41] - Plans to invest between $300 million to $350 million in 2025, with at least 70% allocated to capacity expansion projects [42] - The company aims to enhance its product portfolio and customer engagement through innovation and strategic partnerships [50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for a 6% revenue increase in Q2 2025 despite global economic uncertainties, citing improved order intake and inventory normalization [9][51] - The second half of 2025 is expected to show better performance than the first half, with positive signals from various markets [84] - Management remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties but is prepared to adjust spending plans as necessary [51] Other Important Information - The company has implemented procedures to pass along tariff costs to customers, with minimal direct impact on Q2 results from recent tariff changes [9][35] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was negative $45 million, with expectations of continued negative free cash flow in 2025 due to capacity expansion plans [33][38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution inventory and demand pull - Management noted ongoing efforts to increase product SKUs with distributors, with improvements in POS observed in Europe and The Americas, while inventory levels have normalized [54][56] Question: Tariff impact on revenue - Management explained that less than 4% of sales are from China, and the impact of tariffs is expected to contribute 1% to 2% to revenue, with a minimal effect on gross profit [59][60] Question: Newport Fab utilization and gross margin impact - Management indicated that Newport Fab utilization is expected to increase gradually, targeting gross margin neutrality by early 2026 [65][66] Question: Cyclical recovery trends - Management highlighted positive signals in smart grid and aerospace defense markets, with expectations for continued growth in AI and industrial sectors [72][78] Question: AI business size and market share - Management reported that AI-related shipments in Q1 were more than double those in Q4, with a strong design position across various components [80][81] Question: Outlook for the second half of the year - Management expressed optimism for the second half of 2025, with backlogs building and no negative adjustments in automotive scheduling agreements [83][84]