Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities At Any Rate: Aluminum's premium paralysis Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It ...

Core Viewpoint - Victoria's Secret & Co. has faced challenges in its financial outlook, leading to lowered earnings guidance and cautious analyst sentiment regarding its performance in a competitive market [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 9 cents, aligning with analyst consensus estimates [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $1.35 billion, remaining flat year over year and also meeting market expectations [1]. Fiscal Year Guidance - Victoria's Secret has revised its fiscal year 2025 adjusted operating income guidance to a range of $270 million to $320 million, down from a previous forecast of $300 million to $350 million [2]. - For the second quarter, the company forecasts sales between $1.38 billion and $1.41 billion, slightly below the $1.42 billion estimate [3]. Profitability Concerns - The analyst noted that profit forecasts for the second quarter lagged behind prior consensus, which had already accounted for a $10 million impact from cybersecurity issues and another $10 million from tariffs [3]. - A gross tariff impact of $120 million is expected for the year, with $70 million already mitigated, resulting in a net hit of $50 million that could reduce gross margin by over 100 basis points [6]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has taken steps to mitigate tariff impacts, including cost-cutting measures, diversifying sourcing, and improving shipping efficiency [7]. - Victoria's Secret is shifting from blanket discounts to more targeted promotions, such as gift-with-purchase events [7]. Earnings Projections - The analyst has lowered the fiscal year 2025 EPS estimate to $2.10 from $2.22, and for fiscal year 2026, the EPS is now projected at $2.25, down from $2.38 [7][8].

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Finia, a spinoff from BorgWarner, specializes in light vehicle fuel injection systems and has a strong presence in commercial and aftermarket businesses. [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **Market Growth**: The fuel injection market is experiencing content growth due to higher adoption of direct injection technologies. The company anticipates mid to high single-digit growth through the decade, particularly in natural gas and alternative fuels for commercial vehicles. [4][5] Financial Performance - **Cash Flow**: Finia targets over 90% free cash flow conversion, highlighting its strong cash flow generation capabilities. [2] M&A Strategy - **Acquisition Focus**: The company recently made a small acquisition aimed at enhancing its commercial vehicle and aftermarket exposure. The acquisition is expected to complement its existing product lines and leverage its engineering capabilities. [3][4][6] - **Valuation Metrics**: The acquisition was made at a multiple of 4.7, compared to Finia's own trading multiple of 5 to 5.5. [5] - **Future M&A Plans**: Finia is open to further acquisitions, particularly those that align with its existing portfolio and provide shareholder value. The company is cautious about pursuing aftermarket assets that do not have manufacturing capabilities. [7][10] Market Position - **Competitive Landscape**: Finia sees itself as one of the two major players in the light vehicle fuel injection market, alongside Bosch. Smaller competitors are exiting the market, which may provide opportunities for Finia to gain market share. [13][19][21] - **Revenue Goals**: The company aims to maintain its light passenger vehicle revenue between $900 million and $1 billion, while growing its aftermarket and commercial vehicle segments. [16] Sales and Revenue Guidance - **Q1 Performance**: The company reported Q1 revenue in line with expectations, despite a typical seasonal softness. The impact of foreign exchange (FX) was noted, with an estimated $80 million effect on revenue. [24][27] - **Commercial Vehicle Outlook**: The commercial vehicle segment is expected to remain flat to slightly up, with year-over-year declines anticipated in Europe and the Americas. [31][32] Tariff Exposure - **Impact of Tariffs**: Finia has experienced a $4 million impact from tariffs in Q1, with plans to pass through costs to customers. Approximately 60% of its revenue from Mexico is USMCA compliant, mitigating some tariff impacts. [36][39] Aftermarket Strategy - **Aftermarket Growth**: The company aims to increase its aftermarket revenue, currently at 34%, to over 40%. It has a billion-dollar aftermarket distribution network that supports this growth. [9][11] Technological Developments - **Powertrain ECU Development**: Finia is developing its own powertrain ECUs to provide a complete system offering to customers, with a focus on nonrecurring engineering support. [75][76] - **Aerospace and Defense Opportunities**: The company is entering the aerospace sector, supplying fuel injection components, with aspirations to grow this segment significantly by 2030. [78][79] Market Trends - **GDI Penetration**: Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) penetration is currently around 65-70%, with expectations for continued growth in various global markets, including South America and India. [56][57] - **Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)**: The company anticipates that BEV penetration will plateau at around 25-35%, indicating a sustained demand for combustion engines. [60][64] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Finia is focused on maintaining a balanced portfolio with a strong emphasis on aftermarket and commercial vehicle segments, while strategically navigating market challenges and opportunities for growth. [70][73]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 5.3% to $10.4 billion in Q1 compared to $9.9 billion in the previous year's first quarter [7] - Gross profit as a percentage of sales was 31%, an increase of 78 basis points, primarily due to lower shrink and higher inventory markups [16] - EPS for the quarter increased by 7.9% to $1.78, exceeding internal expectations [19] - Merchandise inventories decreased by $344 million or 5% year-over-year, with a 7% decrease on a per store basis [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store sales increased by 2.4%, driven by a 2.7% growth in average basket size [8] - Positive comp sales were observed across all categories, including consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel [8] - Non-consumable product categories performed well during the Easter and early spring seasons, with both seasonal and home categories comping at or above 3% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer traffic slightly decreased by 0.3% during the quarter but remained strong on a two-year stack basis [8] - 25% of Dollar General customers reported having less income than a year ago, indicating a financially constrained core consumer [11] - Increased trade-in activity was noted from both middle and higher-income customers, with new customers making more trips and spending more compared to last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its value and convenience proposition while focusing on long-term financial goals and shareholder value [15] - Plans include opening 575 new stores in the U.S. and executing approximately 4,885 real estate projects in 2025 [24] - The company is diversifying sourcing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, reducing exposure to China for direct imports to less than 70% [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining comp momentum due to improved store standards and customer service [42] - The evolving tariff environment poses risks, but the company has plans to mitigate potential impacts on consumer spending and cost of goods [22] - The updated financial guidance for 2025 reflects Q1 outperformance while considering uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [22] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flows from operations of $847 million during the quarter, an increase of 27.6% compared to the prior year [20] - The company returned cash to shareholders through a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per share, totaling $130 million [20] - The company is focused on reducing its adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR leverage ratio to below three times [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in sustaining comp momentum and any surprises on the top line - Management highlighted improvements in store standards and customer service as key factors for confidence in sustaining comp momentum [42] - The company noted that trade-in activity has accelerated, contributing positively to customer retention [49] Question: Traffic progression and changes in consumer behavior - Management reported positive traffic in May and expressed optimism for continued momentum through the year [62] - The company is focused on retaining trade-in customers and leveraging delivery partnerships to enhance sales [66] Question: Willingness to invest in price and wage rates - Management indicated satisfaction with current investments in wages and pricing, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a competitive price point [72] - The company continues to monitor promotional activity and is prepared to adjust pricing strategies as needed [78] Question: Importance of comp growth for margin expansion - Management stated that sustained comp growth is essential for achieving long-term margin targets, with a focus on improving non-consumable sales [86] - The company expects shrink improvements to continue benefiting margins throughout the year [90]

Core Insights - The Campbell's Company (CPB) reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with earnings and net sales exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, although quarterly earnings declined year over year while net sales increased [1][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 73 cents, down 3% year over year, but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 65 cents [3] - Net sales reached $2,475 million, a 4% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,437.3 million, driven by the Sovos Brands acquisition [3] - Organic net sales rose 1%, primarily due to a 2% positive volume/mix impact, offset by planned lower net pricing [3] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted gross profit increased to $745 million from $740 million, while the adjusted gross profit margin declined by 110 basis points to 30.1% due to cost inflation and supply-chain expenses [4] - Adjusted marketing and selling expenses rose 5% to $207 million, while adjusted administrative expenses declined 4% to $150 million [5] - Adjusted EBIT increased 2% to $362 million [5] Segment Performance - Meals & Beverages segment net sales reached $1,463 million, up 15% year over year, with organic net sales growing 6% [6] - Snacks segment net sales totaled $1,012 million, down 8% year over year, with organic net sales down 5% primarily due to decreased sales of various snack products [7] Guidance and Outlook - Campbell's reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting net sales growth of 6-8% and adjusted EBIT growth of 3-5% [2][13] - Adjusted EPS is expected to decline 4-1%, ranging from $2.95 to $3.05 compared to $3.08 reported in fiscal 2024 [13] - The company estimates an additional headwind of three to five cents per share to its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS due to current tariff actions [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The third quarter earnings performance exceeded expectations, with reported net sales increasing by 4% driven by the Sovos acquisition and organic net sales growth of 1% [5][29] - Adjusted EBIT increased by 2% year-over-year, resulting in a slight margin decrease due to lower net pricing realization [9][30] - Adjusted EPS was down 3%, with a net positive contribution from the Sovos acquisition [10][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Meals and Beverages division reported organic net sales growth of 6%, driven by volume and mix growth of 7% [13][35] - Snacks business experienced a 5% decline in organic net sales, primarily due to lower volume and mix [20][36] - The overall consumption of Meals and Beverages leadership brands increased by 2%, while Snacks leadership brand consumption declined by 3% [11][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In-market consumption for Meals and Beverages outpaced category consumption, while Snacks lagged behind due to competitive pressures [7][10] - The consumer environment showed a preference for home-cooked meals, leading to increased demand for Meals and Beverages products [11][62] - The Snacks category faced a 3% decline in in-market consumption, attributed to deteriorating consumer confidence and increased competition [20][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on near-term in-market execution and mitigating tariff impacts while investing in brand growth and capabilities [8][27] - A growth office has been established to enhance consumer insights, brand activation, and innovation [27] - The company aims to improve efficiency and effectiveness across the organization to facilitate long-term growth [27][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are making more deliberate spending decisions, impacting the Snacks business negatively [6][26] - The company expects adjusted earnings to be at the low end of the guidance range due to slower recovery in the Snacks business [7][39] - There is optimism regarding the sustainability of the at-home cooking trend, which has positively impacted the Meals and Beverages division [60][64] Other Important Information - The company has estimated the net incremental headwind of tariff-related costs to be up to $0.03 to $0.05 per share for fiscal 2025 [39][40] - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be approximately 4.5% of net sales, reflecting a decrease from prior guidance [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the pressure on the Snacks business? - Management indicated that about two-thirds of the pressure is due to overall category performance and one-third from in-market execution, with a focus on innovation and value [45][47] Question: What are the key factors for fiscal 2026? - Management noted that recovery in the Snacks business is expected to take place in fiscal 2026, with a need for increased marketing support [52][54] Question: How sustainable is the at-home cooking trend? - Management expressed optimism about the sustainability of the at-home cooking trend, supported by the company's diverse portfolio [60][64] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on future guidance? - Management clarified that the estimated tariff impact is being phased in and should not be annualized at this time due to the evolving trade landscape [75][80] Question: What is the growth expectation for Rao's? - Management expects high single-digit growth for Rao's in fiscal 2025, with confidence in the brand's trajectory [83][84]

Core Insights - Best Buy's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a year-to-date decline of 23%, underperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The company reported a 2% decrease in net sales and a 5% decline in earnings per diluted share in Q1 2026, attributed to weaknesses in specific product categories [1][8] - Historical data indicates that during downturns, Best Buy's stock has lost substantial value, including a 45% drop in 2020 and a 55% decline during the inflation crisis of 2022 [2][6] Financial Performance - Best Buy's current stock price is approximately $66, with a forward P/E ratio of 11x, slightly below its four-year average of 12x [7] - Analysts have set a 12-month price target of $81, suggesting a potential upside of over 20% from the current price [7] - The company has revised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance downward to a range of $41.1 billion to $41.9 billion, reflecting cautious consumer behavior amid persistent inflation [8] Market Conditions - Best Buy's reliance on imported electronics makes it vulnerable to tariff fluctuations, with 30-35% of merchandise sourced from China and 40% from other countries subject to tariffs [3][4] - The company has implemented selective price increases to mitigate the impact of increased tariff-related costs [3] - Consensus forecasts indicate flat revenue growth for fiscal 2026, with a modest 2% increase projected for fiscal 2027, highlighting ongoing macroeconomic challenges [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of US tariffs on various sectors including appliances, autos, industrial tech, and solar companies, indicating a cautious recovery in production and shipment from China [1][4][19] China Consumer Durables - On average, companies in the consumer durables sector derive 35% of revenues from exports to overseas markets and 7% from exports to the US [2] - Companies are partially resuming production in China, but the pace of recovery varies based on global production capacity [4] - Tariff costs are largely borne by US clients, influencing manufacturers' decisions to resume production in China [4][5] China Autos - Auto OEMs derive 6%-26% of total revenue from China exports and 0%-10% from exports to the US [7] - Companies are cautious about restocking due to high warehousing costs and potential demand decline [7][8] - Some auto suppliers report stable or increasing orders post-tariff reduction, with minimal impact from US-China trade tensions [8][9] China Industrial Tech - Companies in the industrial tech sector are experiencing weakening domestic demand for capital goods, particularly among consumer goods manufacturers [12][14] - Despite a reduction in tariffs from 145% to 30%, the effective tariff burden remains around 55% for thin-margin manufacturers, leading to hesitance in new investments [14][17] China Solar - Solar exporters have seen a meaningful recovery in US shipments following tariff rollbacks, with companies restocking inventory ahead of upcoming regulations [19][20] - There is limited room for further pricing negotiations due to rising demand uncertainty and previous price increases [19][20] - Companies are becoming more cautious about capital allocation to the US, seeking diversified geographical exposure instead [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Williams-Sonoma, Inc. reported strong first-quarter results, exceeding revenue and earnings expectations, but analysts have mixed views on future performance due to tariff-related cost pressures and margin concerns [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of $1.73 billion, a 4.2% increase year-over-year, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $1.67 billion [1]. - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $1.85, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.77 [1]. - First-quarter comparable sales and operating margins outperformed expectations, but there was a significant headwind in merchandising gross margin of approximately 220 basis points [4]. Future Outlook - Williams-Sonoma maintains its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting net revenue to range between -1.5% and +1.5%, with comparable sales flat to up 3.0% [2][3]. - Analysts have adjusted their EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with estimates now at $8.33 and $9.10, respectively [5][7]. - The company is viewed positively for long-term growth potential, driven by market share gains and a strong balance sheet, with some analysts suggesting over 50% upside in shares over the next two to three years [6]. Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - RBC Capital Markets analyst Steven Shemesh lowered the price forecast to $182 from $189 while maintaining an Outperform rating [3]. - KeyBanc analyst Bradley B. Thomas reiterated an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $181, citing solid first-quarter results despite industry challenges [5]. - Telsey Advisory analyst Cristina Fernández maintained an Outperform rating with a price forecast of $215 [7]. Market Trends - All brands under Williams-Sonoma posted positive year-over-year comparable sales for the first time since Q2 2022, indicating improved multi-year comp trends [9]. - The return to positive furniture comps is noted as significant, despite concerns over gross margin performance [8].