The BIGGEST Mention Market of the MONTH&& I got my plays.We going HARD on the NO'sGovernment Shutdown, data may be sparse.Plays Below______Inflation 50 + Times | NO◦ Has hit 5/6 times, with 4 being only 1-2 times over◦ Gov shutdown means data will be minimal, therefor i lean less talking in general, we take the coin flip for NOUnemployment / Employment 25+ Times | NO◦ Same idea as the above, data will be lower due to shutdown◦ Averages 29 mentions, with the opening part of the speeches closer to 13+ times, ...

Is the risk of higher unemployment greater than the risk of sticky inflation? (via @opinion) https://t.co/Z0vBk6XYfa ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a quarter-point interest rate cut during its October meeting, despite the ongoing government shutdown, with a projected 98% chance of this reduction [1][3]. Economic Context - The government shutdown has resulted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics not publishing the September jobs report, and inflation data has been delayed, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market is no longer in solid condition, which is a shift from earlier in the year when job creation was strong [4]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation remains above the Fed's target at 3% as of September, which is a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 3.1% [5][3]. - Consumer sentiment has declined, indicating that Americans are feeling the pressure of high prices and limited job opportunities, which may lead to reduced spending [12]. Labor Market Trends - Job openings have decreased, and unemployment is rising, suggesting that the labor market is not keeping pace with the number of job seekers [11]. - Powell noted a marked slowing in both the supply and demand for workers, advocating for a less restrictive monetary policy [11]. Rate Cut Implications - A pattern of rate cuts could provide relief to consumers, particularly those with mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt, as these rates typically fluctuate with the federal funds rate [14][15]. - Financial analysts expect that even if inflation data comes in as expected, the Fed will prioritize the deteriorating labor market conditions over inflation concerns [10][9].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has experienced a significant rally despite adverse economic indicators, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [1]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has reached its highest level since 2021, and inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increased to 3% in September from 2.3% in April [3]. - Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to have risen by 9.2% in the third quarter, with a net profit margin estimated at 12.8%, up from 12.4% the previous year [8]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 has rallied 35% since early April when President Trump paused most reciprocal tariffs, with a year-to-date gain of 15.5% [1]. - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is near 23, a level historically associated with lackluster returns [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts, including those from Bank of America, are adjusting their forecasts in light of the current market conditions and potential risks [4]. - There is a notable uncertainty in the market due to tariffs, which previously caused a nearly 20% decline in the S&P 500 [5]. Corporate Strategies - Companies have managed to offset profit impacts by negotiating lower prices from vendors and implementing cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and passing price increases to consumers [6][11]. - Nearly 1 million workers have been laid off in the U.S. through September, marking a 55% increase from the previous year, indicating struggles within the labor market [9].

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, surging over 50% year-to-date to nearly $4,400 per ounce, followed by a sharp decline of over 6% on October 21, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [1][2] - Despite the recent downturn, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook for gold prices, projecting continued strength through 2026 [2] Economic Context - The current economic environment is characterized by uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve balancing its dual mandate of low unemployment and inflation control [3] - The jobs market is showing signs of weakness, with unemployment rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, and nearly 1 million layoffs reported, a 55% increase from the same period in 2024 [5][6] - Inflation has also risen, with the Consumer Price Index at 3% in September, up from 2.3% in April, coinciding with the implementation of tariffs [5] Market Dynamics - The decline in Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar has been favorable for gold, as lower yields reduce the attractiveness of bonds as a safe-haven investment [8] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to 4% from 4.77% earlier in the year, while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen from 109 to 99 [8] - Historically, gold prices tend to move inversely to Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, making gold more appealing to foreign buyers when the dollar weakens [9]

Developing countries—eager for remittances and a solution to domestic unemployment—are enthusiastic about guest-worker schemes https://t.co/x2weY5L3vh ...

RT cryptoleon (@cryptoleon_xyz)Everyone is now employed.Don’t worry myself & @waleswoosh will be leading the unemployed. https://t.co/UTwr9JO7TB ...

Inflation Analysis - Evercore ISI认为，对于市场而言，通货膨胀是良性的，因为CPI数据低于预期，且未观察到关税转嫁到商品价格上的迹象[2] - 商品价格通胀低于8月份，住房服务通胀疲软，其他服务通胀略有上升，但总体而言无需担忧[2][3] Federal Reserve Policy - 由于通胀方面没有坏消息，美联储可以自由地通过降息来应对劳动力市场的疲软和风险[4] - 美联储将密切关注总体裁员情况，因为如果裁员人数增加且招聘仍然非常低迷，可能会导致失业率迅速恶化[6] Labor Market Dynamics - 初请失业金人数保持平稳，未发出失业方面的红色警报，但裁员公告仍需跟踪，以判断初请失业金人数是否会增加[6] - 需要密切关注联邦、州和地方政府的就业情况，包括Doge裁员的滞后效应和政府停摆的影响[8][9] - 政府停摆可能对需求侧产生宏观经济影响，经济学界将关注潜在的私营部门工资单和劳动力市场动态[9][10] Government Shutdown Impact - 政府雇员可能会因为停摆而错过工资，这可能会对需求产生轻微的宏观经济影响[7][9] - 除了潜在的私营部门劳动力市场动态外，政府部门的就业情况也需要密切关注[8]

South Africa is pushing to deport more undocumented migrants who compete with citizens for jobs in an economy with one of the highest unemployment rates globally https://t.co/jyygIkQwy6 ...

This year, there has been much debate over how fast the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to stabilize the jobs market, given inflation has been trending higher. So far, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has taken a mostly wait-and-see approach to interest rates, only reducing them by a quarter percent once, in September. Most expect a second cut when the Fed meets again on Oct. 29, but what happens after that is a bit murkier. If more cuts are to follow, it will depend on how two important, often compe ...