I like long term cheap debt, but a lot of the debt comes through because Biden that's what he didn't do it. I'm sure he didn't know anything about it, but somebody approved short term debt. It's all over the place and it comes due starting very soon.And if we would lower the interest rates by one point, we pay about one point less. That's $300 billion a year. Can you believe at one point if it lowered by two points.We pay $600 billion a year, leases for years, ten years, 12 years, whatever we make it. But w ...

Market Trends & Predictions - Expectation of a higher yield curve in the future [1] - Anticipation of substantially lower front-end rates with a new, potentially dovish Fed chair within six months [2] - The yield curve steepening trade is a slow-moving process but expected to eventually work [3] Fiscal Policy & Debt - The US is facing fiscally constrained conditions with budget deficits potentially exceeding 6% [4] - High debt-to-GDP ratio (100%) necessitates keeping real interest rates low to manage interest burdens [5] - Japan's reluctance to raise rates significantly despite inflation (2-3%) and wage growth (35%) illustrates a debt management strategy [5] Monetary Policy & Fed - Potential appointment of a dovish Fed chair to lower interest rate costs [4] - The next Fed chair is expected to initiate policies aimed at lowering interest burdens [6] - The strategy to escape a debt trap involves maintaining the lowest possible real interest rates [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides a growth forecast for China with a rating of 4.6% for 2025, which is above consensus expectations [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [6]. - It expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking, while noting potential upside risks from AI adoption [8]. - The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, projecting flat export volumes for the year [9]. - It expects a widening fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth rising to 9.5% [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.6% for 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, with domestic demand expected to rise to 4.5% [10]. - Consumption growth is projected at 4.9% for 2025, with household consumption at 4.8% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report predicts a prolonged reflation path with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.1% in 2025 [9]. - It outlines a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, aimed at stabilizing the economy [32]. Trade and Exports - The report notes that Chinese exports are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms in 2025, following a 5.9% increase in 2024 [10]. - It emphasizes that despite US-China trade tensions, Chinese exports to other economies may continue to grow [23]. Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending and lower revenue [37]. - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and special bond issuance on fiscal health [37].