Economic Slowdown & Recession Concerns - The US economy is slowing down, though not yet in recession, with weak payroll prints attributed to both lack of demand and supply due to immigration crackdown [2][3] - Construction spending is down year-on-year, signaling potential recessionary pressures [4] - Rate cuts are unlikely to stimulate growth and may negatively impact retirees' interest income, potentially increasing uncertainty [5][6][7] Uncertainty & Policy Impact - Uncertainty, stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and geopolitical factors, is acting as a significant drag on the economy, hindering business investment and hiring [8][9][10][11] - Businesses are hesitant to make decisions due to policy uncertainty, adopting a "wait and see" approach [11] - While tax cuts are beneficial for corporations, the unpredictable nature of tariffs creates challenges for long-term planning and investment in manufacturing [12][13] Trade & Tariffs - The industry emphasizes the need for clear and consistent trade rules, suggesting a long-term tariff regime established through Congress to provide businesses with certainty [14][15] - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on consumers, and their fluctuating nature makes it difficult for businesses to compete and plan investments [16] Market Outlook - The market's positive reaction is likely due to anticipation of rate cuts, but these cuts may not address the underlying economic issues [5][6] - Despite the challenges, the US economy has the potential for steady growth around 2%, but uncertainty is hindering progress [9]

Market Overview & Potential Pullback - The market experienced a surge, with the S&P 500 up 29% and NASDAQ up 40% since April 8th [3] - A 5% to 10% pullback would be reasonable and healthy, with expectations of buyers stepping in [3] - The NASDAQ is less than 3% from an all-time high, suggesting the current situation isn't a serious pullback for major averages [4] - A significant pullback (e g, 6%) would likely require a trigger, such as disappointing comments from Jay Powell, weak jobs numbers implying a recession, or disappointing Nvidia earnings [6] Key Stocks & Earnings - "Mag Seven" companies' earnings grew 23% as a group, with high profit margins [8] - Deals with the government could provide downside protection for these companies regarding antitrust, anti-competitive behavior, and foreign employee restrictions [8] - Arius Asset Management owns Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom [9] Consumer Spending & Retail - The consumer has not fallen off a cliff due to continued employment and discretionary income [15] - Home Depot numbers were a relief, though not exceptionally good, with same-store sales up 13% [13] - Target's numbers were weak [13] - TJX's numbers were good, indicating consumers are looking for bargains [14] Portfolio Concentration - The "Mag Seven" stocks represent 29% of the market cap in Arius Asset Management's portfolio [10] - These companies are experiencing earnings growth of 23-24% and have average operating profit margins of 40% [10]

Your next guest is a longtime shareholder and close follower of the company. Joining us, Bill Stone, CIO of the Glen View Trust Company. I think $350 billion, Bill, even for you, is a lot of money.Like, it makes me wonder, what are they waiting for. Or maybe what do they know. Yeah.And I know some people speculate that he's, you know, that Buffett might be taking some sort of a macroeconomic bet. Um, and it could be. He he mostly talks about not thinking about that and just focusing in on owning stocks at a ...

RT Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas)Does it feel like #recession to you personally? ...

RT Wendy O (@CryptoWendyO)We are not in a recession ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential rate cut in September [1] - Survey data indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut, despite 100% believing there will be no cut in July [1] - The chance of recession has fallen to 31%, down from 38% in June and 53% in May [2] - Current rate outlook anticipates approximately two rate cuts this year and two more next year [2] - The market is pricing in 100 basis points of cuts, but the 10-year forecast only goes down to 425 basis points, suggesting a steepening of the curve [10][11] - Easing to come will be a recalibration of bringing down the policy rate and in the process resloping the yield curve, potentially another 100 basis points down to 338 basis points [13] Potential Fed Chair Candidates - The race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell is a three-way tie between Kevin Walsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and Hasset (22%) [1][3] - Fed Governor Waller is also a candidate, polling at 14% [3] - Scott Besson suggests a new Fed chair could be picked as early as December [3] - Paul McCaulay advocates for Governor Chris Waller, citing his monetary policy scholarship, experience as a Fed governor, and sound economic principles [5][6][7] Potential Dissent - There is an expectation that Governor Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman could dissent with the decision not to cut rates [8] - A double dissent from Fed governors hasn't been seen since 1993 [9]

While uncertainty around Donald Trump's trade policy is curbing Canadian businesses investment and consumer spending, firms see the country's economy avoiding the worst recessionary outcomes, central bank surveys show https://t.co/7EvKOsJoyw ...

JP pal uh to his credit in my view has not commented on anything that President Trump has said about him. If I was getting beat up every day or occasionally from time to time by the president, any president, I probably wouldn't be as quiet as Jay has been. But Jay has basically not responded, not taking the bait and I think uh he'd like us to finish out the term if he could, which finishes in May of 26.Jay Pal worked at Carlile and in effect for me for eight years. I hired him out of the George Herbert Walk ...

Trump's trade war may end up just prolonging a period of industrial sluggishness, rather than triggering a sharp recession. But slow-burn downturns also tend to lead to slow-burn recoveries. https://t.co/cdz5pFxAmp ...

Economic Outlook - The US is potentially undergoing a systemic shift, drawing comparisons to both the "Reagan moment" (positive change) and the "Jimmy Carter moment" (stagflation/recession) [1] - Market sentiment regarding the US economic trajectory has been volatile, fluctuating between an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" at the beginning of the year, dropping below 50% by April, and currently residing around 70% [2] - There is an approximate 50/50 chance of either a positive transformation or stagflation/recession in the US [2] Market Dynamics - The US market's significant fluctuations are unusual given its mature institutions and diversified economy [2]