South Africa’s gradual structural reforms are breathing life into the economy, but aren’t sufficient to lift the growth rate to the government’s 3.5% target, according to Moody’s Ratings https://t.co/OKexgJ3oZZ ...

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The EU raised tariffs on steel imports, aiming to protect its market from global overcapacity, primarily stemming from China [1][2] - The EU emphasizes that the steel import restrictions are a horizontal measure, not specifically targeting any single country, but impacting all importers [2] - The US shares similar concerns with the EU regarding global steel overcapacity and protecting local markets, leading to engagement between the two [3] - EU-US trade relations are the largest in the world, with both being each other's largest trading partner, indicating significant economic stakes [4] Economic Growth & Uncertainty - Global trade uncertainty and tensions negatively affect growth, as the EU's economic model relies on open international trade [6] - The EU is committed to defending a functioning multilateral rules-based trading system and diversifying trade engagement through new trade agreements [6][7] - The EU has concluded trade agreements with Merkasur, Mexico, Switzerland, and Indonesia, and is negotiating with India, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates [7] Investment Opportunities in Europe - The EU offers investors a single market of 450 million consumers and 26 million companies, characterized by predictability, rule of law, and strong institutions [9] - There is elevated investor interest in Euro-dominated assets due to the stability and predictability they offer in turbulent times [9] - Strengthening the competitiveness of the European economy and enhancing productivity growth is a priority for the current political cycle [9]

Earnings and Market Trends - Bank earnings are increasingly important due to the lack of economic data such as PPI, CPI, and jobs report [1] - Investors are expected to rely more on bank CEOs' commentary regarding consumer trends and market conditions [2] - Earnings estimates for calendar year 2026 show a 14% growth [3] - The market is considered to be priced to perfection, raising concerns about the departure from economic growth estimates and earnings growth [4] AI Impact and Investment - The expectation of strong earnings growth is contrasted with nominal GDP estimates, suggesting potential overestimation of firm performance [5] - AI is seen as a driver of earnings growth, particularly in communication services, technology, and financials [6] - There's skepticism about the near-term benefits of AI, as the investment phase precedes significant productivity gains [7][8] - Investors should be cautious about AI deals, considering the potential for revenue acceleration to meet deal obligations [11] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Investors should be more cautious about new technology buildouts, considering the possibility of building in the wrong direction [13] - Commodity rallies, including gold hitting new records, reflect concerns about Fed credibility and a preference for real assets over financial assets [14][15] - International relations, particularly with China, are a factor influencing market dynamics [15]

Market Trends - Government bonds rallied globally due to escalating US-China trade tensions [1] - Investors sought safe assets amid concerns of faltering economic growth [1]

Philippine Finance Secretary Ralph Recto warns that the government’s anti-corruption drive on infrastructure projects could slow the country’s economic growth https://t.co/kcRHj8M99x ...

Singapore kept its monetary policy unchanged amid stronger-than-expected economic growth despite the risks from President Donald Trump’ global trade war. https://t.co/3lvdHoXaUR ...

New Zealand Retail Spending Increase Hints at Economic Growth https://t.co/AXDbNPf8PM ...

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Previous government shutdowns have had negligible effects on the broader economy and financial markets, with the federal government being the smallest contributor to GDP [1] - The household and business sectors remain in good shape overall, which mitigates the impact of government shutdowns [1] Recessionary Risks and Employment Data - Recent weak employment data has sparked debates about market valuations and potential interest rate movements by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but broader economic data indicates a healthy economy [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a 3.8% real growth for the third quarter, significantly above the prior business cycle's average of 2.5% [3] Corporate Earnings and Stock Prices - S&P Global forecasts record earnings for the S&P 500 Index in the coming quarters, supporting stock prices despite periodic volatility [4] Tariff Uncertainty and Economic Resilience - While tariff uncertainty is causing turbulence in some industries, the U.S. economy remains relatively insulated due to its services-driven nature [5] Labor Market Dynamics - Slowing jobs growth is viewed as a normalization post-pandemic, with demand for new workers cooling but not collapsing, and layoffs remaining at normal levels [6] - Net immigration is projected to fall to less than 250,000 per year, which should help maintain low unemployment rates [6] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is expected to implement a series of 0.25% reductions to short-term interest rates, potentially bringing the Fed Funds Rate closer to the neutral estimate of 3% [7] Yield Curve and Economic Growth Expectations - Long-term yields remain anchored, with the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4.15%, indicating expectations of further short-term interest rate reductions [8] Investment Implications - The company remains overweight U.S. equities, particularly in high-quality businesses with strong earnings and low leverage, favoring sectors such as information technology, financials, and industrials [9] - On the alternatives side, equity option overlay strategies are being used to enhance yield and manage downside risk [10] Fixed Income Strategy - The company is cautious about short-duration assets due to reinvestment risk and has shifted focus to intermediate-term asset-backed securities [11] - There is an underweight position in U.S. Treasuries, with a strategy to diversify across credit qualities and durations [12] Market Volatility and Cash Indicator - The Cash Indicator has shown low levels, suggesting market complacency and susceptibility to shocks, but the positive economic backdrop presents opportunities to increase allocations to high-quality businesses [13]

Industry Dynamics - Creative destruction shapes industries by replacing old practices with new innovations [1] - Creative destruction drives economic growth, competition, and disruption [1]

Key Points The Fed chair said that economic growth in the U.S. is slowing. He also said he thinks the stock market is frothy. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Is the current bull market, which began three years ago on Oct. 12, 2022, in trouble? If you've been listening to the most important economic policymaker on the planet lately, you might have come to that very conclusion. In a Sept. 23 speech to the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island, Federal Re ...