What do today's lower-than-expected US GDP numbers mean for the Fed's decision on interest rates? Wrong question, says @keds_economist (via @opinion) https://t.co/KsF7fGanQC ...

The government's measurement of PCE is wrong and lagging.Real PCE is 1.55% right now according to @truflationThe Fed remains behind the curve because they are trying to drive a car while looking through the rearview mirror.They must cut rates now. https://t.co/S5RSy0uxTu ...

Data quirks and all. How did you interpret the pieces we got today. Well, some of it distorted by the government shutdown and some of it maybe people running out of gas at the end of the year in terms of the spending numbers, the inflation numbers affected by various categories in CPI and PPE.But remember, these are December inflation numbers still bad. Look for the Fed to be cutting rates when you've got the PC core at 3% for the month of December. That's quite a ways from their target.And also we saw the ...

Shall we take a little step back on the trade data. Because there's been a lot of volatility underneath the hood over the last 12 months. So let me just say, we've seen this widening in the deficit.Couple of things to remember, that the deficit narrowed a lot in the first half of last year. There was a lot of uncertainty about trade. Then all of that was unwound in the second half of the year.And now we're seeing some normalization in trade data finally. So it's been a very volatile 2025. Now, the next thin ...

Group 1 - Treasuries experienced a slight increase after a two-day selloff, influenced by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, with the 10-year note yield falling to 4.07% and the two-year note yield rising to 3.47% [1] - President Trump's comments regarding negotiations with Iran contributed to market movements, indicating a limited timeframe for a deal, which helped to stabilize Treasury prices [1][2] - The demand for 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was strong, with a $9 billion auction reflecting investor interest amid inflation worries [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions from the US military buildup in the Middle East have negatively impacted stock prices and contributed to rising oil prices, raising inflation concerns [4] - A prolonged US-led operation for regime change could significantly affect energy markets, challenging the current disinflation narrative and increasing medium-term inflation risks [5] - Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that officials are considering interest rate hikes if inflation remains high, leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts in the near term [6] - Unemployment benefit applications fell significantly, suggesting a resilient labor market, which aligns with the Fed's assessment that employment risks have moderated [7]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 281.36 points (-0.57%) to 49,381.30, while Dow Futures fell by 322.00 points (-0.65%) to 49,400.00, primarily driven by a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report [1] - The PPI report raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high for an extended period, leading to a spike in Treasury yields and negatively impacting growth-oriented sectors and major financial institutions [1] Sector Performance - The financial and industrial sectors experienced the most significant losses, with Goldman Sachs declining by 2.92% to $906.73, followed by IBM down 2.19% and American Express down 2.18% [2] - Boeing and Sherwin-Williams both fell by 2.10%, reflecting concerns over industrial demand and rising input costs [2] - Other notable decliners included Salesforce, down 1.44%, and The Walt Disney Company, down 1.32% [2] Defensive Stocks - Defensive stocks gained traction as investors sought safety, with Verizon Communications rising by 1.72% to $48.84 [3] - Consumer staples outperformed, with Procter & Gamble up 0.89% and McDonald's up 0.86% [3] - Cisco Systems increased by 0.61%, and Chevron rose by 0.57%, indicating a rotation into low-beta assets and dividend-paying equities during the session [3]

After putting in a high of 126,000 in October, Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value, bottoming near 60,000 in early February. Although steep corrections are not uncommon in Bitcoin, this one stung more than most due to the over $1.2% trillion in market cap that evaporated. But what's causing it.Well, the easiest explanation is that Bitcoin often correlates to tech stocks within the NASDAQ. So perhaps it's not a coincidence that the NASDAQ also put in all-time highs in October and then traded down 9% bottoming ...

🇺🇸 HUGE: U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.01%, the lowest since September 2022. https://t.co/tP0rMPmVr2 ...

The bond market’s consensus view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice more this year is at odds with US economic resilience, say portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac, who are betting against Treasuries https://t.co/KyJbK7mLth ...

Economic Outlook - The current economic situation is not favorable, with expectations that it will worsen in the near future [2] - There is a significant concern regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with economists questioning their effectiveness [3][4] Tariffs and Manufacturing Jobs - The anticipated positive effects of tariffs on manufacturing jobs have not materialized, as manufacturing jobs have declined over the past year [9] - The overall trade deficit remains a concern, particularly in the context of a service-oriented economy where goods constitute less than 10% of GDP [10] Impact on Different Income Groups - Tariffs are viewed as regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income individuals who spend a larger percentage of their income on goods [11][12] - The increase in jobs in the U.S. has primarily been in the healthcare sector, which is unrelated to tariff policies [12] Institutional Credibility - There is a noted decline in institutional credibility among economic advisors, particularly in the context of the Trump administration, which has affected the respect and trust within the economics profession [15][16] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Concerns have been raised about the new Fed chairman's ability to operate independently from political pressures, particularly from Trump [17] - Statements regarding AI's impact on productivity and interest rates have been met with skepticism, as there is uncertainty about the pace at which AI will influence the macro economy [19]