Core Insights - The U.S. is not expected to become China's main supplier of soybeans, as China is currently seeking to fill its needs with U.S. soybeans until Brazil's next harvest [1] - The National Soybean Index reached its lowest monthly close at the end of September since August 2020, indicating ample supplies relative to demand [2] - The government shutdown has led to a lack of reporting from the USDA, creating uncertainty in the market and allowing China to potentially buy soybeans under the radar, similar to actions taken in 2018 [5][7] Market Trends - The agricultural markets are experiencing a quiet period, with livestock futures showing significant losses [4] - Basis is weak for both corn and soybeans due to increased supplies during harvest time, with producers selling soybeans while holding corn [8][12] - The cash cattle market is seeing pressure, with cutout values dropping significantly, indicating a potential shift in investor interest towards markets with a more bullish supply and demand outlook [16][18] External Factors - Gold prices are reaching record highs, driven by concerns over inflation and a growing lack of confidence in the U.S. economy, as central banks continue to buy gold as a safe haven [13][14] - The ongoing government shutdown is contributing to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and trading behavior [15]

Well, joining me now is Wharton School Professor of Finance and Wisdom Tree Chief Economist Jeremy Seagull. Jeremy, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.>> Good to see you, Morgan. >> So, where do we go from here with stocks. >> Well, as I've been saying a long for a long time, make the trend your friend.It's the trend is on. Um, you know, but Mike Santo is right. It's been a it's been a long time since we've had any reaction.But at this point, I don't see anything immediately that is uh derailing uh ...

Core Viewpoint - Interest rates have already decreased by 25 basis points and may continue to fall, prompting investors to consider alternative income sources such as equity income ETFs to enhance fixed income performance [1][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Environment - The Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation could lead to further interest rate cuts, impacting fixed income allocations in investor portfolios [1] - A potential economic downturn could result in lower yields for traditional bonds, making equity income ETFs more attractive for investors, especially those nearing retirement [1] Group 2: Active Equity Income ETFs - The Goldman Sachs Nasdaq-100 Premium Income ETF (GPIQ) and the Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Premium Income ETF (GPIX) both charge a fee of 29 basis points and provide yield options outside the fixed income category [2] - GPIX focuses on the S&P 500 while GPIQ targets the Nasdaq 100, with both funds employing call options on 25% to 75% of their holdings to generate equity income [2] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date returns for GPIX and GPIQ are 12.1% and 15.1%, respectively, outperforming their FactSet Segment Averages [3] - As of July 31, GPIX offered an 8.17% trailing 12-month dividend yield, while GPIQ provided a 9.9% yield as of August 31 [3] Group 4: Strategic Implications - GPIQ and GPIX present meaningful options for advisors seeking to provide additional income to clients as interest rates decline [4]

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Group 1: Market Liquidity and Speculation - Liquidity has been a primary driver of financial asset returns, with unprecedented speculative activity due to the Fed's actions since the pandemic [1][4] - The correlation between Ether and SPACs indicates broad speculation driven by easy liquidity conditions rather than fundamental asset performance [2] - Current financial conditions are very easy, allowing companies easy access to capital, as evidenced by historically narrow corporate spreads and the popularity of SPACs [7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed influences the economy through the banking system, cutting rates to lower the cost of capital and encourage lending when banks restrict lending [5] - Conversely, when lending is excessive, the Fed raises interest rates to slow down the economy [6] - The Fed's recent rate cuts signal potential outcomes, including either a broadening of equity markets or further excess liquidity leading to more speculation [16][17] Group 3: Economic Conditions - The US economy is showing growth above the long-term average, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker [10] - Inflation expectations are rising, influenced by tariffs and supply chain disruptions, which are typically inflationary [12][14] - Recent immigration policies are constraining labor supply, potentially leading to rising wages if demand for labor remains strong [14][15] Group 4: Investment Implications - Two potential outcomes from the Fed's rate cuts include a healthy broadening of the market or rampant speculation leading to misallocations within the economy [30] - Bubbles are inherently inflationary, misallocating capital and potentially leading to significant future inflation [18][20] - The current misallocation of capital, such as investments in cryptocurrencies instead of essential infrastructure, could exacerbate inflationary pressures [20]

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers blasted Stephen Miran’s first speech as Federal Reserve governor, saying it failed to provide a proper analytical basis for slashing interest rates https://t.co/1t4wUOJDCK ...

Group 1 - The final reading for S&P Global's manufacturing PMIs for September remains at 52, indicating stability in the manufacturing sector [1] - The mid-month reading for September was also 52, marking the lightest reading since July, which was slightly below 50 [1] - July is noted as the only month this year with a PMI below 50, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity [2] Group 2 - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the lightest figure since March 2023, which has influenced interest rates to decline [2] - Interest rates have decreased by six basis points for the 10-year and eight basis points for the 2-year [2]

The conventional wisdom is we shut down after midnight. And I'm assuming you don't see a way around it. What comes after the shutdown.Well, unfortunately, it looks like we are barreling towards a shutdown because Democrats like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have changed their position entirely on keeping the government funded and passing clean cars. Whether it was Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I voted for every single C. R.to keep the government open and funded while we negotiate a final appropriations pac ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc has been a leading tech stock, excelling in e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising, yet its stock performance has disappointed investors recently [1][2]. Stock Performance - Despite the broader equity market reaching new highs, Amazon's stock has not surpassed its all-time high of $240 from February [2]. - The stock has encountered resistance at the $240 level multiple times over the past nine months, indicating a potential "triple top" pattern, which is a bearish signal [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The triple top pattern suggests that buyers are losing confidence at the $240 price point, making it increasingly difficult for the stock to break through this ceiling [4][6]. - The recent inability of Amazon to capitalize on favorable market conditions raises concerns about the sustainability of its bullish momentum [6]. Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo upgraded Amazon's rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, indicating a stronger commitment to the bullish outlook, especially in light of the stock's struggles to break the $240 barrier [7][9]. - The upgrade is significant as it reflects a high degree of confidence in Amazon's potential to overcome current resistance levels [9]. Growth Drivers - The upgrade from Wells Fargo is based on expectations surrounding Project Rainier, which aims to accelerate growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) amidst increasing demand for AI workloads [10]. - Amazon's advertising business is also highlighted as one of the fastest-growing segments, alongside its robust e-commerce operations, particularly with the upcoming Prime Day expected to drive significant consumer spending [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - Amazon possesses multiple growth drivers that provide a strong long-term outlook, despite recent stock performance challenges [12]. - The underlying business fundamentals remain solid, suggesting that the stock may soon gain enough momentum to reach new highs [12].