Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve Critique - The speaker advocates for monetary regime change at the Federal Reserve, suggesting deeper problems beyond short-term interest rate adjustments [3][4] - The speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve's models, constructs, and meeting choreography, calling for a strategic approach aligned with government economic and national security goals [4] - The speaker questions the Federal Reserve's independence, arguing it shields the Fed from legitimate criticism and Congressional oversight, violating democratic governance norms [7][8] - The Federal Reserve has been operating at a loss since September 2022 and holds over 900 billion USD in unrealized capital losses [9] Interest on Reserves (IOR) & Banking System - The Federal Reserve is paying hundreds of billions of USD to commercial banks to keep money in cash reserve accounts instead of lending or investing [9] - Paying interest on reserves (IOR) originated as an emergency measure in October 2008 during the global financial meltdown [12] - The speaker suggests eliminating the Federal Reserve's use of paying interest on reserves and shrinking its portfolio to raise interest rates [17] Quantitative Easing (QE) & Inflation - Quantitative easing (QE) involved the Federal Reserve purchasing government assets to lower interest rates to zero [13][14] - The Federal Reserve credited banks' cash balance accounts for millions of USD with a keystroke when purchasing Treasury securities, creating base money [14][15] - The speaker argues that paying banks to keep money at the Federal Reserve is more lucrative than making loans, hindering financial intermediation [16]

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Stablecoin Market & Treasury Demand - The modernization of the global payment system via stablecoins, backed primarily by T-bills, could significantly expand international trade invoiced in dollars [2][3] - Increased adoption of stablecoins in international trade could lead to trillions of additional demand for Treasury securities [5] - Legislation providing a clear framework for stablecoins is expected to reduce run risk and create a more stable environment for payments [7] Impact of Stablecoins on Payment Systems - Stablecoins on blockchain could reduce payment times from 24-48 hours to minutes or seconds, enhancing speed, security, privacy, and cost-effectiveness [3][4] - Increased use of stablecoins could revolutionize international payments, attracting significant adoption [4] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Strong economic data, including flat CPI, strong retail sales, and growing consumer confidence, may warrant a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [11][12] - The current economic environment, characterized by expansionary supply-side policies and deregulation, should reduce inflationary pressures [11][12] - High interest rates compared to global peers raise questions about the Federal Reserve's approach [13] - Markets may react adversely to rate cuts if there are credibility concerns about the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation, potentially leading to higher long-term rates [14] Trade & Tariffs - Sector-specific tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals are under evaluation by the Commerce Department and the U S Trade Representative [17][18] - The administration is reportedly close to announcing more trade deals [18][19]

Market Trends & Macroeconomic Factors - The market is receiving mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, especially with recent CPI increases [1] - While overall inflation has been relatively tame despite tariffs, the Fed is expected to observe a few more months of data before resuming rate cuts [2] - There's uncertainty surrounding the risk of inflation spiking and upward moves in bonds, particularly with the August 1 deadline looming [4] - The market appears to be largely shrugging off these concerns, hoping for trade deals or extensions [5] Company Earnings & Valuations - Attention is being paid to how tariffs and trade are impacting company earnings and margins, though no significant impact has been observed thus far [6] - NASDAQ and S&P are near or at all-time highs, indicating markets are priced for perfection [6] - Tech stocks have seen a surge since April lows, leading to stretched valuations [8][9] - Top 10 holdings in the S&P account for a significant concentration, representing 30-38% of the index and 32% of the earnings [9] - Despite high expectations, the market wants to see continued investment in AI and capex spending on data centers and infrastructure [10] Investment Opportunities - Both public and private investments are seen as good opportunities, particularly in illiquid investments across private capital, private equity, private credit, and private real estate [12][13] - Investing in alternative asset managers could benefit if more private investments are allowed in 401ks [11] - Private equity investments offer exposure to AI companies not readily available in public markets [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net earnings for Q3 2025 increased to $15.2 million or $0.78 per share compared to $6.6 million or $0.34 per share in the prior year, with adjusted earnings at $0.81 per share excluding non-recurring charges [6][12] - Average selling prices rose 11.7% year over year and 8.2% sequentially from Q2 2025, reflecting pricing actions taken to manage rising raw material costs [6][10] - Gross profit for the quarter increased to $30.8 million, with gross margin expanding by 650 basis points to 17.1% [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments for the quarter increased by 10.5% year over year and 3.5% sequentially, driven by recent acquisitions and improving demand in construction markets [8] - SG&A expenses rose to $10.6 million or 5.9% of net sales compared to $7.9 million or 5.4% of net sales in the prior year, primarily due to increased compensation expenses [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. wire rod market remains tight, with public prices for steel wire rod increasing by approximately $190 per ton since January [7] - The architectural billing index increased to 47.2, indicating early signs of stabilization in nonresidential construction, although it remains below the growth threshold [15] - Nonresidential construction spending declined by 3.5% compared to the prior year, reflecting a softer demand environment [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capitalize on improving demand trends while managing working capital and maintaining strong customer relationships [19] - The administration's tariff strategy is seen as a work in progress, with only about 10% of revenue directly affected by imports, indicating a cautious approach to import competition [21][22] - The company plans to continue its share buyback program and has reduced its full-year capital expenditure target to $11 million from $17 million [14][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about ongoing demand recovery despite macroeconomic uncertainties, noting that customer confidence remains strong [20] - The company is well-positioned to navigate near-term challenges while building long-term value for shareholders [19] - Management acknowledged risks related to the administration's tariff policies and the future performance of the U.S. economy but remains focused on maximizing shipments and optimizing costs [30] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for the quarter fell to 23.3% from 24.7% a year ago, with expectations to remain around 23.4% for the remainder of the year [12] - The company ended the quarter with $53.7 million in cash and is debt-free, providing financial flexibility for growth opportunities [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Have quoting levels for newer projects followed the same trajectory as strong business activity? - Management noted that raw material constraints have caused backlogs to grow, but they remain optimistic about project inquiries, particularly in data centers [35][36] Question: What is the potential timeline to resolve the recent Section 232 tariff disconnect? - Management believes the administration's intent is for the tariff to be on the full value of the product, and they are actively engaging with commerce to address ambiguities [37][38] Question: How is the integration of engineered wire products progressing? - Management expressed satisfaction with the integration, noting that the facility is productive and they are learning from each other [40][41] Question: Do you anticipate being able to maintain current margin levels? - Management expects to pass through higher costs and does not anticipate margin deterioration in the current market [54] Question: What needs to occur for the housing market to improve? - Management indicated that while they do not solely rely on housing, infrastructure investments are expected to drive demand for their products [56] Question: What is the outlook for cash balance at year-end? - Management stated that they are not dissatisfied with the current cash balance and will assess the situation as the year progresses [57] Question: Can you quantify the domestic wire rod supply shortage? - Management estimated that they will have imported 25% to 30% of their steel requirements, approximating the domestic shortfall [58]

President Trump. Um, enough about me. Now you talk about him.Confirming he has no plans to fire Fed chair J. Pal, downplaying earlier reports that suggested otherwise. Joining us now with the latest on this story and what firing pal could mean for the markets, Nick Timosro, Wall Street Journal chief economics correspondent.Earlier, Nick, we Fed whisperer. Fed he is. He's uh he's got if you read it from him, you you probably can trust u what he's saying.But my point earlier was, have you ever heard anyone ar ...

Tonight, President Trump lashing out at his own supporters amid the ongoing Republican outcry over his administration's decision not to release Justice Department files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epste. I lost a lot of faith in certain people. Yeah, I lost because they got duped by the Democrats.The president dismissing the interest by some in the MAGA world in Epstein as a Democratic distraction and chastising those supporters as quote weaklings. It's all been a big hoax. It's perpetrated by ...

camera and joining us today for a big story, the big story for the markets today. Let's get more reaction on the fed with Jefferies chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, it's great to have you on. You know, it's interesting because you're on CNBC.Earlier today, as we were getting reports that Trump was drafting this letter and planning to potentially do this. And then right after that hearing from the president himself that it's unlikely. And, you know, I sort of leave that with ...

Market Overview & Tariffs - US stock futures are in the red as new tariff threats from President Trump target Mexico and the European Union, following a 35% tariff on Canadian goods [3][4] - The European Union is considering delaying tariffs on US exports but is prepared with over 24 billion in tariffs on US goods if a deal isn't reached [4][5] - The US dollar is slightly up against the euro, while European stocks are declining due to tariff concerns [5] Alternative Assets - Bitcoin surpassed 122,000, reaching a new all-time high, up about 10% in the past week and over 30% this year [6] - US stocks linked to crypto are seeing pre-market gains, with Michael Sailor Strategy up about 2%, and Coinbase and Robin Hood up over 1% [7] - Silver is up over 33% this year, surpassing gold's 27% rise, trading near $40 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and tighter supply [15] Economic Data & Earnings - Inflation reports from the US and Europe are in focus, with the US core CPI expected to show a 29% increase over the prior year in June [8] - Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have grown by just under 5% over the prior year during the second quarter, marking the slowest pace since Q4 2023 [9] - Large banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America are reporting earnings, with expectations of trading revenue gains attributed to record trading after tariff announcements [9][10][11][12] Electric Vehicles & Tax Credits - The federal EV tax credit of $7,500 for new vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles is set to expire on September 30th [38] - Chinese EV companies are releasing more electric SUVs, potentially weakening Tesla's position in the Chinese market [35][36] - Tesla is down about 08% and faces scrutiny due to Elon Musk's multiple leadership roles and the company's valuation being based on future technologies like robo taxis and humanoid robots [44][46][47] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in just a 7% chance of a Fed rate cut in July, with Goldman Sachs expecting the first rate cut in September [53][54] - Some strategists warn the Fed may hold steady due to lingering inflation risks and tariff uncertainty, potentially pushing rate cuts to November or December [54][57] S&P 500 Outlook - RBC Capital Markets raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730, reflecting a roughly flat return for the rest of the year [61] - Strategists are closely watching the tariff situation, with uncertainty surrounding its resolution potentially leading to market chop [63]