欧盟发言人：欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇前往华盛顿进行贸易谈判。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. capital markets, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, and the technology sector. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Small Positive News** The market is currently experiencing small positive news that lacks concrete outcomes, leading to a mixed sentiment among investors. Despite some minor positive developments, the market did not reflect these on the following Friday, with two out of three major indices showing slight declines and trading volumes decreasing slightly [1] 2. **High-Level Negotiations Impacting Capital Markets** Upcoming high-level negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to address sensitive issues such as tariffs, technology restrictions, and rare earth exports. There is a significant probability that positive news may emerge from these discussions, driven by the U.S.'s need for favorable outcomes to stabilize its situation amidst internal and external turmoil [2][4] 3. **Political Climate and Its Effects** The political climate, including attacks on former President Trump and discussions about forming a third political party, is creating a chaotic environment. This situation may compel the U.S. administration to seek victories, such as successful trade negotiations with China, to divert attention from domestic issues [3][4] 4. **Potential Tariff Adjustments** There is speculation regarding the possibility of further tariff reductions, particularly on previously imposed tariffs exceeding 30%. Any concessions from the U.S. side could positively influence market sentiment in China, especially in the technology sector [5] 5. **U.S. Employment Data and Market Reactions** Recent U.S. employment data exceeded market expectations, contributing to a positive reaction in the stock market. However, there are concerns about the reliability of this data in accurately reflecting the employment situation, raising questions about the sustainability of the market's upward movement [6][7] 6. **High Valuations and Market Risks** The U.S. stock market is currently at a high valuation, which poses risks of downward corrections. The market's upward movement appears to lack substantial positive drivers, leading to a divided state in U.S. assets, particularly in the bond market [7] 7. **Sector-Specific Opportunities** There are emerging opportunities in sectors such as technology and military industries, with reports of new overseas orders. The recent warming of international relations may enhance market sentiment and trading volumes, particularly benefiting the technology sector [8][9] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The potential for a rebound in market sentiment is linked to the outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations, which could lead to increased trading volumes and sustained interest in specific sectors, especially technology [9]

Group 1 - The speech by Shigeru Ishiba on July 9, 2025, reflects a strong discontent with U.S. policies and calls for Japan to reduce its reliance on the U.S. [3][17] - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japan and 13 other countries, targeting key sectors such as automotive, steel, and electronics, which are crucial for Japan's export economy [8][12] - Japan's automotive exports to the U.S. totaled $117.1 billion in 2024, accounting for 34% of its total exports to the U.S., with potential job impacts affecting approximately 5.6 million people [8][9] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are stalled due to conflicting economic models, with Japan advocating for investment prioritization while the U.S. demands a reduction in trade surplus and increased imports of U.S. goods [12][16] - Japan's steel exports to the U.S. fell by 20.6% year-on-year as of May 2025, indicating significant pressure on its foundational industries [13] - The U.S. has also pressured Japan to open its agricultural market further, which threatens Japan's domestic agricultural interests and political stability [11][19] Group 3 - Ishiba's firm stance is influenced by domestic political pressures, with his cabinet's approval rating at 24% and the ruling party's support at 19% ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [17][19] - The U.S. demands for Japan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP are seen as excessive and beyond Japan's fiscal capacity [11][23] - Japan's trust in the U.S. has significantly declined, with only 22% of the population expressing trust in the U.S. as of June 2025, marking the lowest level since 2000 [23][25] Group 4 - Japan is actively seeking to improve relations with China, which has become its largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $102.49 billion in 2024, as a strategy to counterbalance U.S. pressures [27][29] - The Japanese government has shown restraint in territorial disputes, indicating a focus on stabilizing relations with China amidst U.S. trade tensions [27][29] - The ongoing trade war and Japan's diplomatic strategies will significantly influence the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region [31]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, following the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods by U.S. President Trump [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU's countermeasure list spans 206 pages and targets over €65 billion in industrial products, including aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [2]. - Agricultural products account for approximately €6 billion, with fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) being the most affected [2]. - The initial list targeted €95 billion in U.S. goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - EU officials express disappointment over the U.S. tariff announcement, which they believe disrupts ongoing negotiations that were close to reaching an agreement [4]. - The new tariffs have negatively impacted European stock markets, with analysts noting that the 30% tariff far exceeds initial expectations of a 10% tariff [4]. - If the 30% tariff is implemented, trade between the EU and the U.S. could become "nearly impossible" [4]. Group 3: EU's Strategic Alliances - The EU plans to strengthen ties with countries affected by U.S. tariffs, including Japan and Canada, and is seeking to expand cooperation in the Pacific region [1][8]. - The EU is also negotiating trade agreements with countries in the Southern Common Market and aims to establish global partnerships to counter U.S. pressure [8]. - There is a growing trend among countries, including Canada and Brazil, to seek independent trade paths and reduce reliance on the U.S. [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

美国财长贝森特：部分贸易谈判起步较为缓慢。 ...

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price was 9184 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.52% and a trading volume of 735,125 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price was quoted at 9146 yuan per kilogram, showing a discount of 79 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures main price [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations related to drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [1] Group 2 - Guotou Futures reported that precious metals experienced volatility due to the announcement of high U.S. tariff rates, with the EU preparing to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail [2] - The market remains uncertain, and risk sentiment may fluctuate, leading to continued volatility in precious metals [2] - Attention is on the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could impact market movements [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, potentially affecting $84 billion worth of American imports, amid significant trade negotiation tensions between the two parties [1][3]. Summary by Sections EU's Retaliatory Measures - The EU has identified a second list of retaliatory tariffs targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1][5]. - The initial list aimed at $95 billion worth of U.S. goods was reduced after consultations with businesses and EU member states [1][5]. - The EU's response is a direct reaction to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods, which has created a significant divide in trade negotiations [3][4]. Negotiation Dynamics - The EU's trade commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, indicated that while there is a close agreement on the trade agreement text, substantial differences remain in certain areas [3][4]. - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs is seen as a way to gain leverage in negotiations, although it has shocked EU officials [3][4]. Impact on Trade Relations - The proposed 30% tariff would drastically alter the transatlantic trade relationship, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade dynamics [3][4]. - Experts believe that the EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff as a baseline was already a significant concession, and the 30% threat is unacceptable [4][8]. Composition of the Retaliatory List - The retaliatory list includes over €65 billion worth of industrial goods, with significant items being aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [8]. - Agricultural products affected exceed €6 billion, primarily fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) [8]. Broader Trade Strategy - The EU is considering all possible measures to protect its economy, including potential actions against the U.S. service sector and the use of coercive measures [8][9]. - The EU is also looking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is interested in enhancing cooperation with CPTPP members [9][10].

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 780.40 yuan per gram on July 15, with a daily increase of 0.25% and a trading volume of 216,294 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.80 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 8.6 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - President Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on more countries, while investors expect these tariffs to be reduced through negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump urged Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement, or else face a 100% secondary tariff [2] - The U.S. is open to trade negotiations with various countries, including Europe, regarding tariff issues [2] - The London silver spot price reached over $39 per ounce, marking a new high in over a decade [2]

欧盟贸易部长们一致表示，仍希望在截止日期前与美国达成协议以避免破坏性关税，但同时也做好了报复准备。主持会议的欧盟轮值主席国丹麦 外交大臣拉斯穆森称，美国的关税威胁"绝对不可接受"，"我们希望达成公平协议，但若遭遇不公平关税，就应做好反制准备"。法国贸易部长洛 朗·圣 - 马丁认为制定报复计划应"没有禁忌"，周末的挫折要求欧盟重新考虑策略。 在与部长们会晤前，谢夫乔维奇警告，若特朗普真征收30%关税，美欧贸易将"几乎不可能"，实际就是禁止贸易。事实上，欧盟已准备了一份涉 及价值210亿欧元美国进口商品的单独清单，旨在回应特朗普对钢铁和铝征收的关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩13日宣布，将把这些反制措施推迟 至8月初实施，且欧盟倾向于与美国协商解决问题的立场不变。（陈十一） 此前，特朗普宣称若8月1日前未能达成协议，将对欧盟商品征收30%关税，这一税率明显高于其4月公布的针对欧盟20%的对等关税税率。今年4 月初，特朗普宣布对所有来自欧盟的进口商品征收20%"对等关税"，随后给予90天暂缓期，期间仅征收10%基准关税。目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产 品征收50%关税，汽车领域征收25%关税，几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税 ...