（原标题：美联储，突发！刚刚，直线跳水！） 特朗普，又有大动作！ 当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普宣布，即刻撤销美联储理事库克的职务。特朗普指责库克在金融事 务中存在"欺诈性和潜在犯罪性行为"，并称此类行为已动摇其作为监管者的可信度。 受此消息影响，美元指数、标普500指数期货、纳指期货、道指期货均在盘中直线跳水。 与此同时，关税谈判，也有新消息传来。当地时间8月25日，美国国土安全部发布预告通知，拟自8月27 日零时起对印度商品加征50%关税。通知指出，关税将适用于"所有进口供消费或仓储提取供消费的印 度商品"。 同日，美国总统特朗普表示，不介意就与韩国贸易协议进行重新谈判，考虑从韩国订购一些舰船。 特朗普：撤销美联储理事库克职务 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上公开了一封致美联储 理事丽莎·库克的信件，宣布即刻将其免职。 当地时间8月25日，特朗普政府发布一份公告草案，概述了对印度产品征收50%关税的计划，这是白宫 计划推进提高关税的最新信号。 美国国土安全部发布的通知称，提高的关税将针对"2025年8月27日美国东部夏令时间凌晨12:01或之后 进入消费市场 ...

日，美国和欧盟共同宣布，已就双方贸易协定的部分细节达成一致，但仍需数周甚至数月的额外谈判来解决剩余问题。 根据美欧周四在华盛顿和布鲁塞尔同步发布的联合声明，此次达成的共识主要集中在关税调整上：美国将对大多数欧洲产品征收15%的关税，而以往这类产 品的关税通常仅为2%多一点。 这一关税上调意味着美国消费者未来购买欧洲药品、法国香水、意大利葡萄酒等商品时，价格可能会上涨。 在汽车关税方面，双方约定了一个"条件性下调"方案：一旦欧盟通过立法，取消对美国工业产品本就不高的关税，同时为美国部分农产品（比如野牛）提供 更大的市场准入空间，美国就会将欧洲汽车进口关税从当前的25%降至15%。此外，欧洲的半导体、药品和木材也将面临15%的进口税，不过这个税率远低 于特朗普此前计划对其他市场同类产品征收的水平。 欧洲官员经过数周反复协商，才成功将这些关税承诺以书面形式确定下来。 欧盟27个成员国自协议框架公布后，一直在努力为本土主要产业争取关税豁免，以规避特朗普政府"一刀切"关税带来的冲击。 目前，飞机及零部件已获得豁免，但葡萄酒和烈酒行业未能如愿——这一结果让大西洋两岸的酒类从业者大失所望，要知道此前美国进口欧洲酒类产品是无 ...

不到一个月的时间，加拿大政府开始做出妥协，决定调整之前对美国商品实施的报复性关税。这一变化正如我们之前所预测的那样。根据最新的消息，加拿 大总理卡尼宣布，将取消对美国大部分商品加征的关税，但对美国的汽车、钢铁和铝产品的关税将暂时保留。这一决定被解释为加拿大对美国降低对加拿大 商品关税的回应。 自特朗普推动新经贸协议以来，加拿大在所有发达国家中是唯一一个与美国发生直接冲突的国家。其他发达国家基本上都选择了妥协，而加拿大则从2018年 8月1日起开始对美国商品施加35%的关税，这个税率远高于其他国家——其他发达国家对美国商品的关税大多为15%。这种情形表明，加拿大与美国之间的 经贸矛盾愈加激烈。 然而，造成这一局面的背后，还存在着其他深层次的原因。首先，加拿大的高科技产品和中高端商品现在成为进入美国市场的重要来源。它是美国第二大进 口商品来源国，仅次于墨西哥，而墨西哥主要是中低端商品的中转地。其次，特朗普对加拿大的全球第二大石油储量虎视眈眈，力图通过控制能源资源进一 步巩固美国的经济地位。更为关键的是，特朗普有意将加拿大纳入美国的管辖范围，将其变成美国的一个州，进一步加强北美的统一。 然而，在面对美国强大的压力下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous rapid decline of PG accelerated the release of weak expectations. Currently, the marginal improvement of fundamentals and relative strength compared to crude oil indicate good realization of this expectation. The downward driving force has faded, but the rebound space is limited. The market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern during the logistics repair process [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents China's LPG Import Structure Changes - During the 2018 - 2020 trade war, US propane exited the Chinese market due to a 20% tariff. By 2024, the proportion of US LPG imports in China reached a record high of 50.9%, and subsequently, trade conflicts led to fluctuations in this proportion. In March 2025, it dropped to 38.7%, and in June, it fell to 12%. It is expected to remain in the range of 35% - 40% in the short term [1][3][4] - After the expectation of a 145% tariff on US LPG in May, there was a rush to import, causing the total LPG import volume to increase after March. In June, the procurement volume declined rapidly, and the proportion of US LPG also decreased significantly [4] - In July, the total domestic import volume is expected to rebound, with the year - on - year decline narrowing from - 21% in June to - 12% in July. The proportion of US LPG in the import volume is expected to further recover to 36% in August [4] US LPG Export Changes - Since 2022, Northeast Asia, centered on China, has become the main destination for US LPG exports. In 2024, Northeast Asia accounted for 50.7% of US LPG exports, with China being the largest export destination at 15.6% [8] - In 2025, after the sharp decline in exports to China, exports to other regions such as Northeast Asia and Europe remained stable. The US redirected its exports to South Asia and Southeast Asia, with the export proportion to these two regions increasing from 9.4% in Q1 to 20.4% in Q2 [8] Market Fundamentals and Outlook - The EIA slightly increased its short - term forecast of natural gas and associated propane production, but the room for further production increase within the year is limited due to weak gas prices. The over - supply pressure remains, but the negative pressure may decline marginally [11] - In August, the Middle East CP was significantly lowered for the first time in a year, indicating the Middle East's attitude to seize the market under over - supply pressure. The previously high PG/crude oil ratio has been restored to a historical neutral level [11] - The low - price PG has stimulated the recovery of terminal demand, and the distorted trade flow has begun to repair. After the recent rapid decline of crude oil, PG has remained relatively stable, with a firm ratio [11]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities show different trends, including price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and impacts from macro and industry news [2][6] - Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy changes Summary by Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold**: PPI exceeding expectations dampens interest - rate cut expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] - **Silver**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12] - **Zinc**: Shows a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15] - **Lead**: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18] - **Tin**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21] - **Aluminum**: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina's center of gravity moves down, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25] - **Nickel**: Narrowly fluctuates based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of news - related risks, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] Energy - related Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Trades in a range, and investors should pay attention to supply disruptions, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38] - **Polysilicon**: Market news boosts sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 [2][39] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43] - **Rebar**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][46] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Silicomanganese**: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - **Coke**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] - **Coking Coal**: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] Forestry Products - **Log**: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58] Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the monthly spread remains strong [2][62] - **PTA**: Weak reality and strong expectations lead to a monthly - spread reverse arbitrage [2][62] - **MEG**: The arrival volume this week is low, and the basis strengthens [2][62] Rubber - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly [2][31] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pulls back in the short - term and trades in a range in the medium - term [2][33] Building Materials - **Asphalt**: Poor sales and unfavorable crude - oil trends [2][35] - **LLDPE**: Trades in a range [2][38] - **PP**: Tends to be weak, but investors should be cautious when short - selling at low levels [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Should be treated bullishly, but investors should pay attention to the situation of near - month warehouse receipts [2][40] - **Pulp**: Fluctuates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Fluctuates [2][44] - **Urea**: Driven by short - term news, the upside space narrows [2][46] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [2][48] - **LPG**: The risk of squeezing positions in the near - month contract still exists [2][49] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Follows the macro trend and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Oil**: Lacks driving force from US soybeans and adjusts [2][61] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans close lower, and the domestic soybean meal adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Soybean**: The atmosphere in the soybean market is weak, and it adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - **Corn**: Runs weakly [2][65] - **Sugar**: The import volume in July increases significantly year - on - year [2][67] - **Cotton**: Investors should pay attention to the listing of new cotton [2][68] - **Egg**: The long - term expectation is weak [2][70] - **Live Pig**: Wait for the verification of the spot price at the end of the month [2][71] - **Peanut**: Investors should pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][72] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Fluctuates and consolidates, and investors can hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [2][54] Textiles - **Short - fiber**: Trades in a short - term range, and investors should pay attention to the approaching peak - season demand [2][58] - **Bottle - grade Chip**: Has limited downside space and trades in a range [2][58] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Fluctuates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [2][59] - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates weakly [2][60]

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on India, primarily due to India's profitable dealings in Russian oil, which has caused significant concern among Indian businesses reliant on exports to the U.S. [2] - India faces limited options for retaliation against the U.S. tariffs, as previous attempts to impose counter-tariffs had minimal impact, and legal actions through the WTO would take years, potentially harming Indian enterprises in the meantime [4][6] - Brazil's President Lula has reached out to Modi to discuss trade and potential bilateral agreements, but Brazil's own economic challenges may limit the effectiveness of such discussions [6][7] Group 2 - Indian media has expressed frustration over the U.S. treating India differently compared to other countries in trade negotiations, highlighting India's significant service surplus with the U.S. and its reliance on U.S. market access for various sectors [9] - Indian scholars have noted that the U.S. appears to be less cautious in its dealings with India compared to other nations, suggesting that India needs to find a protective ally to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [11] - India has been adept at navigating multilateral trade relationships, but the imposition of tariffs presents a direct challenge that could strain its economic interests, particularly in maintaining energy imports from Russia while preserving access to U.S. markets [13] Group 3 - Indian companies are facing immediate decisions regarding export pricing, storage in the U.S., and potential relocation of orders to third countries with trade agreements, as the impact of tariffs is felt quickly across supply chains [15] - The situation illustrates the intersection of political and economic pressures, with India needing to balance its strategic autonomy in energy procurement against the economic costs imposed by U.S. tariffs [17] - The current discourse in India reflects a mix of advice on how to respond to U.S. actions, emphasizing the need for strategic negotiations and the importance of leveraging available resources to counteract tariff impacts [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may experience a slight increase in both supply and demand, with costs being supported and supply expectations improving due to policy impacts. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is also suggested to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,622.50 US dollars/ton, up 36.50 US dollars [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,725 hands to 10,977 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, down 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,610 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export quantity was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 7.80%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.29%, down 0.39% [2]. - The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.21, up 0.02; the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. Industry News - China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks, suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [2]. - The US 7 - month CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected; the core CPI was up 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by more than 90% in the September meeting [2].

Hot News - From 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods Originating from the United States" (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4 in 2025) will be adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [1] - The People's Government of Guangzhou and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan on Implementing the Opinions on Financial Support for the In - depth All - around Cooperation of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in Nansha, Guangzhou Facing the World", proposing to support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to actively study power futures and strive for the support of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments to explore the timely launch of power futures [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans". The annual interest subsidy ratio is 1 percentage point, with a maximum of 50% of the loan contract interest rate. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the interest subsidy funds respectively [1] - On August 12, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian was asked by a AFP reporter about US President Trump's post on the "Truth Social" platform, expressing the hope that China would triple its soybean orders as a way to significantly reduce the US - China trade deficit. Lin Jian said that specific issues should be referred to the competent authorities, and China's stance on US - China economic and trade issues is consistent and clear [1] - Federal Reserve's Barkin said that the uncertainty about the direction of the US economic development is decreasing, but it is still unclear whether the central bank should focus more on controlling inflation or supporting the job market [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are coking coal, rapeseed meal, crude oil, soda ash, and fuel oil [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.94% increase, precious metals 26.15%, oilseeds and fats 12.70%, non - ferrous metals 21.79%, soft commodities 2.41%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 15.48%, energy 3.36%, chemicals 11.22%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.80% [3] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 2.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.37%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 1.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.55%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.52%, a monthly increase of 1.67%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.31%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.41%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.09%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 1.13%, a monthly increase of 1.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.59%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a monthly increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.48%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.23%, a monthly decrease of 0.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.67%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 4.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.08%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.20%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.93% [5] Fixed - Income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.00%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.77%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.62% [5] Commodities - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.11%, a monthly decrease of 1.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; WTI crude oil had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 7.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 11.03%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 1.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.57%; LME copper had no daily change, a monthly increase of 1.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.76%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.87%, a monthly decrease of 0.47%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.07% [5] Others - The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.44%, a monthly decrease of 1.98%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.60%; the CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 2.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.34% [5] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME copper prices increased by 0.30% to $9,761 per ton, driven by the consensus between China and the U.S. to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs [1] - The SHFE September copper contract remained stable at ¥78,940 per ton, reflecting positive sentiment in the commodity market due to the tariff suspension agreement [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of increased copper supply are suppressing price gains, with Codelco reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production to 120,200 tons in June [3] - The approval for the resumption of operations in unaffected areas of the El Teniente copper mine alleviated supply concerns, impacting copper prices [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME aluminum prices rose by 0.39% to $2,598 per ton, while nickel prices fell by 0.10% to $15,335 per ton [4] - In Shanghai, aluminum prices remained stable at ¥20,680 per ton, with nickel prices increasing by 0.79% to ¥122,590 per ton [4]