文丨编辑 来科点谱 «——【·前言·】——» 白宫高调宣布特朗普将于3月底到4月2日访华，试图在外交舞台抢占先机，然而消息发布不到24小时， 美国最高法院的一纸裁决如同晴天霹雳，特朗普引以为傲的1600亿美元关税被判定违法！ 这位曾经挥舞关税大棒威慑全球的强人，在访华前夕突然失去了最趁手的武器，更令华盛顿尴尬的是， 路透社直言不讳：中方早已将美国的战略软肋看得一清二楚。 2 月 21 日，美国最高法院直接把关键结论说透，特朗普当年拿《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）当依 据推行的对等关税，已经超出法律授权范围，构成越权使用法律。 裁定书由首席大法官罗伯茨亲自执笔撰写，其中最核心的结论就是，这些加征的关税并没有足够的法律 授权作为支撑，必须马上停止征收并彻底废除，而这一切问题的根源，就出在 IEEPA 的本意上。 它是一九七七年通过的工具法，设计目的主要是给总统在战争或国家安全遭遇紧迫威胁时采取紧急经济 措施的空间，而不是让总统把它当成常规的贸易谈判手段。 过去一年半里，特朗普却把这部法律用成"随时加税"的按钮，对中国、欧盟、日本、加拿大等一批经贸 伙伴轮流施压，把关税当成推进政治目标和经贸谈判的主要方式。 ...

在美国联邦最高法院裁定总统特朗普单方面征收惩罚性关税的政策无效后，正与美国进行贸易谈判的主要 国家纷纷开始重新权衡利弊。印度政府立即宣布推迟原定本周的华盛顿访问行程，转为观望态度。 韩国也承诺投资3500亿美元，并将互惠关税税率降至15%，以避免铝、钢铁和汽车部门遭受苛刻的关税。 不过，韩国政府目前正通过新法案组建投资基金，对于全面否认协议本身持谨慎态度。 战略与国际问题研究中心客座研究员保罗·纳多在接受采访时表示，最高法院的判决可能会从根本上改变未 来的贸易谈判格局。他分析称："特朗普总统在谈判中可用的杠杆要素已经大大削弱。各国政府正在克制草 率行动，密切关注特朗普政府的政策变化趋势，并专注于制定新的贸易战略。" 贸易专家认为，印度与美国此前达成的谈判框架实际上已经失去意义。在目前的情况下，印度将在基本最 惠国待遇税率2%至3%的基础上，额外被征收15%的关税。 全球贸易研究倡议组织创始人、前印度贸易谈判代表阿杰·斯里瓦斯塔瓦在接受采访时表示："临时贸易协定 现在已经消失了，双方都需要重新评估战略。"此外，两国在6日发表的联合声明中包含了一项条款，即"如 果一国更改商定的关税，另一国也可以修改承诺"。印度主 ...

| | | | V V SUIL FUIURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月13日 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | | 【豆一】 临近假期,盘面呈现粕强油弱的状态,豆棕菜油呈现减仓态势。美豆上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。 我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少，主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易谈判提升需求，可以鼓励 供应端扩张,面积同比增长,单产维持在历史高点，也会大概率去库,因此易于提升CBOT大豆价格，我们要谨 慎美豆油和美豆震荡 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 豆油 | な☆☆ ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 豆一增仓强势上涨。期货市场大幅增仓，市场预期偏乐观，关注节前资金的动向。目前现货市场交投清淡。近 期的政策端拍卖大豆成交价格偏强,给市场带来提振。美国农业部上调了巴西大豆产量,美豆供需未调整,报 告偏空。不过美豆仍上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。由于外盘大豆价格近期偏强,对国产大豆也有一 定的溢出效应。我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少,主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易 ...

知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普私下正在考虑退出北美贸易协定，这给美加墨三国关键的重新谈判增添 了更多不确定性。 据描述内部讨论的匿名人士称，特朗普曾问助手为什么他不应该退出该协议——这是他在第一任期内签 署的——尽管他并未直接通过信号表明他一定会这样做。 一位白宫官员在被问及这些讨论时，称特朗普是最终决策者，且总是为美国人民寻求更好的交易。该官 员表示，在特朗普正式宣布之前，关于潜在行动的讨论都属于毫无根据的猜测。 美国贸易代表格里尔办公室的一位官员表示，照单全收2019年的条款不符合国家利益，政府打算保留特 朗普的选择权，并谈判解决已确定的问题。 两名官员都要求匿名，并拒绝直接回应特朗普是否在考虑退出该贸易协定。格里尔周二表示，政府将与 墨西哥和加拿大分别举行会谈，并指出与加拿大的贸易关系更为紧张。他没有说明特朗普是否会批准延 期。 《美墨加协定》（USMCA）定于7月1日进行强制审查及可能的延期，这一过程曾被视为例行公事，但 现已演变为一场有争议的谈判。特朗普要求加拿大和墨西哥做出额外的贸易让步，并施压他们解决移 民、贩毒和国防等无关问题。 上述官员表示，如果能达成包含行业利益相关者意见的解决方案，格里尔将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in a fermenting stage [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is in a fermenting stage [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decrease but poor operability on the market [1] - Eggs: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides investment ratings for each product and elaborates on the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market expectations. It also reminds investors to pay attention to risks, especially around holidays and during important data release periods [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The futures market has significantly increased its positions, with an optimistic market expectation. Attention should be paid to the movement of pre - holiday funds. The spot market has light trading. Policy - end soybean auctions have had strong transaction prices, and the strong price of external soybeans has an overflow effect on domestic soybeans. The 26/27 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet pressure is expected to decrease year - on - year, which is conducive to raising the CBOT soybean price [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - After the phone call between the leaders of China and the US, there are expectations of increased US soybean purchases. In the short term, the continuous soybean meal may continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom. The weekly soybean crushing volume in China is high, and the soybean meal inventory has exceeded 900,000 tons. The 2 - month USDA supply - demand report is about to be released. For rapeseed meal, the export situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively good, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. The short - term trends of US soybeans and continuous soybean meal are differentiated [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - As the holiday approaches, the prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil on the market have declined with reduced positions. The Malaysian palm oil report is bullish, with production lower than expected, export higher than expected, and inventory showing a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is positive for soybean oil prices. The news of the resumption of normal rapeseed imports from Canada and further procurement of rapeseed shipments in China have suppressed rapeseed oil prices [4] Corn - The national corn sales progress has reached 61%. The closing prices of Beigang Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are flat compared to the previous day. The Spring Festival stocking of downstream enterprises is basically over, and the trading is light. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. The short - term Dalian corn futures are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [5] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, and the slaughter volume has increased significantly recently. However, due to the high - speed slaughtering, the price has continuously dropped. The industry's average slaughter weight is still high, and the inventory is higher than the same period last year. There is a need to be vigilant about the post - holiday supply pressure. In the long - term, the pig price is expected to hit a low point in the first half of next year [6] Eggs - Some egg contracts have a large intraday decline and hit a new low. The overall market has increased its positions by nearly 10,000 lots. The spot price is stable today. The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but still decreased year - on - year. The egg price in the first half of 2026 still has upward - repair momentum. The futures market has already reflected the expected short - term weakness of the spot. The subsequent trading strategy is to wait for the spot low around the Spring Festival and then configure long positions in the first - half - year 2026 egg futures contracts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the United States and India marks a significant turning point in their long-standing trade negotiations, which have been fraught with tensions over tariffs and trade barriers since 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes a reduction of the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while India will lower its tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero [3]. - India has committed to significantly increasing its procurement of U.S. products, including over $500 billion worth of energy, technology, agricultural products, and coal [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Negotiation Dynamics - Since 2025, U.S.-India trade talks have been overshadowed by U.S. threats to raise tariffs, leading to a breakdown in negotiations and heightened tensions [4][5]. - The U.S. initially imposed a 25% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods in July 2025, which was further exacerbated by additional tariffs related to India's oil imports from Russia, resulting in a total tariff rate of 50% on Indian exports to the U.S. [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Impact on India - The high tariffs have significantly impacted India's labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and jewelry, which employ millions and have faced substantial losses due to missed export opportunities [5][6]. - Indian exporters have been forced to establish subsidiaries in the U.S. to circumvent tariffs, and some have relocated production to countries with lower tax rates, such as the UAE [6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The Indian government, under Prime Minister Modi, is under pressure to deliver economic benefits to the public ahead of the 2026 elections, necessitating a satisfactory agreement with the U.S. [7]. - Both countries must prepare for the finalization of the agreement and consider how the new trade dynamics will influence their respective economies moving forward [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 21, most equity index futures and CGB futures traded higher, while commodities showed mixed performance. Lithium carbonate, tin, and gold led the rises, while glass, sodium hydroxide, and coking coal led the declines [11][12][13] - The U.S. Trade Representative hopes to launch a new round of trade negotiations with China [40][41] - Shanghai plans to gradually include qualified non - ferrous metal futures and options varieties in the scope of opening - up to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities [42][43][45] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 21, in equity index futures, IC rose 1.9% and IH rose 1.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.75% and TS dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, lithium carbonate rose 7.3% with open interest increasing 3.0% month - on - month, tin gained 5.8% with open interest decreasing 3.6% month - on - month, and gold advanced 3.7% with open interest increasing 11.5% month - on - month. The top three decliners were glass (down 2.3% with open interest increasing 2.6% month - on - month), sodium hydroxide (down 2.0% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and coking coal (down 1.8% with open interest decreasing 3.2% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On January 21, gold rose 3.7% to 1,092.30 yuan/g. Driven by Greenland - related tensions and tariff threats on the 20th, both domestic and international gold prices surged, with COMEX gold briefly breaking through $4,750. Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold also supported the price. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust gold futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22. Short - term, watch the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff case, Greenland - related developments, and the new Federal Reserve Chair nomination [17][19][22] - **Platinum**: On January 21, platinum rose 2.5% to 628.50 yuan/g. Heavy rainfall in South Africa may impact supply, and geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have flared up. The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair and U.S. tariffs on platinum and palladium are also factors. Short - term, platinum prices may fluctuate. In the future, supply risks from South Africa remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [25][26][28] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Silver**: On January 21, silver dropped 0.1% to 23,131 yuan/kg. After hitting record highs intraday, silver prices retreated, and short - term high - level volatility risks increased. Besides the boost from the 20th's events, downward pressures such as high volatility, low short - term lease rates, and tariff suspension on critical minerals are building up. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust silver futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22 [34][35][36] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the U.S. hopes to launch another potential round of trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested referring the question to the competent Chinese authorities [40][41] 2.2 Industry News - Shanghai issued an action plan to strengthen futures - spot market linkage and enhance the competitiveness of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities. It aims to expand the high - level institutional opening - up of the non - ferrous metal futures market, gradually include qualified varieties in the scope of opening - up, and improve relevant business rules. It also encourages exploration of cross - border delivery mechanism innovation to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities and the "Shanghai Price" [42][43][45]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant fluctuations in the Japanese bond market, with calls from the Japanese Finance Minister for investors to remain calm amid a sell-off that has affected U.S. bonds as well [8][12] - China has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at boosting investment and consumption, including a special guarantee plan worth 500 billion RMB (approximately 72 billion USD) to encourage private enterprises to borrow and expand their businesses [8][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.97% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.79% [1][5] - The Hang Seng Index ended at 26487.51 points, down 0.29%, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 1.16% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 0.43% [1][5] - U.S. markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.76% at 48488.59 points, the S&P 500 down 2.06% at 6796.86 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.39% [1][5] Company Developments - China’s leading PCB equipment manufacturer, Dazhu CNC, reported a 144% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first ten months of the previous year, with revenues rising by 64.4% [10] - Junlebao Dairy, a comprehensive dairy company in China, submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting a nearly 30% increase in net profit for the first nine months of the previous year [10] - Muyuan Foods, a major pig farming and pork production company in China, is reportedly planning to raise up to 11.7 billion HKD (approximately 1.5 billion USD) through a Hong Kong IPO [10] - Shanghai Shangmi Technology is expected to launch an IPO in February, aiming to raise around 12 billion HKD (approximately 1.5 billion USD) [10] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth for the fourth quarter was reported at 4.5%, with a year-to-date growth of 5.0% [16] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while industrial value-added output rose by 5.2% [16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has postponed the increase of tariffs on certain imported furniture items from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027, to facilitate ongoing trade negotiations and ensure economic security and supply chain stability [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The announcement affects tariffs on upholstered chairs, cabinets, and bathroom cabinets [1] - The postponement is not a delay in imposing tariffs but rather a delay in increasing existing tariffs [1] Group 2: Impact on Exports - Wooden products exported to the U.S. will still be subject to existing tariffs of 10% and 25% under Section 232 [1]