过去几年，加拿大总是追随美国围堵中国。现在中国动真格的，直接用关税反制加拿大。没多久，加拿大总理卡尼就就急忙释放"希望对话"的信号。显然， 反华的后果，加拿大承受不起。 今年3月，中国对加拿大油菜籽及相关产品加征了100%的关税，同时要求进口商缴纳高额保证金。这一政策一出，加拿大的出口商们立刻陷入两难：如果缴 纳关税，产品价格毫无竞争力；如果放弃进入中国市场，只能低价转卖给其他国家，眼下折价幅度甚至高达30%。对依赖出口的加拿大农户来说，这几乎等 于断了生计。 事实上，这并非中国突然翻脸，而是一次有计划的反制行动。去年9月，加拿大政府紧跟美国步伐，对中国电动车征收100%关税，并对钢铁、铝制品加征 25%关税。中方早就启动了对加拿大油菜籽的反倾销调查，如今结果明确，就是要通过加征关税让加拿大感受到切实的经济压力。 数据显示，加拿大有六成油菜籽出口目的地是中国，而中国市场中高达96%的油菜籽原本来自加拿大。换句话说，中加在这一领域几乎是深度绑定。正因如 此，关税打击才会如此致命。 本以为双方"唇齿相依"，中国不会轻易下狠手。但现实却证明，中国完全有能力通过调整进口渠道来替代加拿大供应。对加拿大而言，失去中国市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has agreed to suspend two countermeasures against U.S. tariffs for six months, following a trade agreement reached with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The trade agreement was discussed during a meeting between U.S. President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen on July 27, where they reached a consensus on new trade terms [1] - Under the new agreement, the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, while the EU plans to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy [1] Group 2: Previous Tariff Measures - Prior to this agreement, the EU had approved a countermeasure plan involving tariffs on U.S. products worth €930 billion [4] - This plan included a first round of tariffs amounting to approximately €210 billion on U.S. goods such as soybeans, motorcycles, and jeans, and a second round of tariffs worth about €720 billion on high-value industrial products like airplanes and cars [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The US tariff exemption extension is entering its final week, and negotiations with countries like the EU, India, and Mexico are in a tense phase, with uncertainties regarding potential tariff counter - measures. Overseas is in a week of intensive macro - events, including the Fed's interest - rate meeting and key economic data releases. China will hold a Politburo meeting, and attention should be paid to economic work guidance and PMI data to confirm economic recovery. The real estate sales remain at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and has declined due to summer heat, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, posing potential downward pressure on the Q3 economy. However, anti - involution policies are expected to gradually reverse deflation [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose but marginally tightening. Bond market redemptions are flowing into the stock market, providing incremental funds. Overseas financial conditions have improved, with a decline in the real interest rate of US bonds, leading to foreign capital inflows into the domestic stock market. Passive ETF shares are being re - increased, equity financing such as IPOs has cooled, margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, and the pressure of restricted - share unlocks has increased, overall favoring liquidity [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral - to - high level. The stock - bond yield spreads at home and abroad have further declined, making the attractiveness of allocation funds average [4]. - **Strategy**: The current valuations of broad - based indices are not cheap, and the foreign - capital risk premium index has dropped to a low level. The pressure of US tariff policies may resurface. Considering that the stock market has prematurely priced in macro - expectations, the market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then correct in the next 1 - 2 weeks when positive factors are realized or fall short of expectations. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices after sharp rallies this week or use out - of - the - money put options to protect against black - swan risks. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: In the past week, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index led the gains, while the German stock market led the losses. The week - on - week changes of major indices are as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, among others [8][9]. - **Sectors**: Coal led the gains, and banks led the losses. Coal > Steel > Non - ferrous metals > Building materials... > Electric power and public utilities > Communications > Comprehensive finance > Banks [12]. - **Futures**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.21%, 0.09%, - 0.39%, and - 0.31% respectively, with IH reaching par and the discounts of IC and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (current and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.3%, - 0.25%, - 0.19%, and - 0.25% respectively, and the inter - period discounts of the four major futures began to widen. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.21%, - 0.61%, - 1.32%, and - 1.81% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major futures widening significantly [19]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 39.65 billion yuan, reaching a total of 1.94 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained unchanged at 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.17358 trillion yuan, an increase of 74.43 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 198.619 billion shares, with a net subscription of 290 million shares from the previous week [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In July, the cumulative equity financing was 45.49 billion yuan, with 6 cases. Among them, IPO financing was 20.92 billion yuan, private placement was 24.58 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.79 billion yuan. The market value of stock market unlocks last week was 86.84 billion yuan, a significant increase of 58.38 billion yuan from the previous week [26]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse - repurchase matured at 1.7268 trillion yuan, with a reverse - repurchase injection of 1.6563 trillion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 400 billion yuan in July and matured at 300 billion yuan, with continuous monthly net injections for 5 months. Overall, the liquidity supply was neutral but marginally tightening [28]. - **Fund Prices**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 14.5bp, 6.4bp, and 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.65%, 1.55%, and 1.52%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 2.1bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks rebounded by 4.1bp to 1.67%. The fund supply tightened marginally, debt financing demand declined, but the real - economy financing demand recovered, and the fund prices generally rebounded slightly [34]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed by 6.7bp, 6bp, and 5.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 8.9bp, 9.5bp, and 6.6bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to steepen, and the credit spreads between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened at both the long and short ends, indicating a return of broad - credit expectations [38]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 25, the US 10 - year Treasury yield changed by - 4.0bp to 4.40%, the inflation expectation changed by 3.0bp to 2.44%, and the real interest rate changed by - 7.00bp to 1.96%. The Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrowed by 10.79bp to - 266.61bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.19% [41]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 24, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.531 million square meters, showing a seasonal improvement from the previous week's 1.372 million square meters but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real estate market sales generally returned to a low level, and attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting will propose signals to boost the real estate market [44]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 25, the daily average subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities dropped significantly to 81.84 million person - times, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last year but a 21.8% increase from 2021. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week, indicating that the service industry's economic activities were cooling down [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Due to the anti - involution policy, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry declined. The capacity utilization rates of steel mills, asphalt, cement clinker enterprises, and coking enterprises changed by - 0.08%, - 4%, - 0.26%, and 0.44% respectively. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 0.01% from the previous week. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand trends of the manufacturing industry improved marginally, and it has entered the seasonal peak season [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and people flow remained at a relatively high level. The postal express and civil aviation sectors showed a significant weekly decline, while railway transportation rebounded slightly, which may be related to the rush - to - export. There is a risk of a second seasonal decline from August to September [56]. - **Exports**: As the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is nearing its end, the port cargo throughput and container throughput have increased significantly. There is a risk of a second decline from August to September when the 90 - day tariff exemption period ends [61]. - **Overseas**: With the US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in July falling back into the contraction range and the US durable goods orders data dropping more than expected, the financial market has revised its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. The market expects 2 interest rate cuts in 2025, with a reduction of 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a September rate cut has increased to 61.9% [63]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.07%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week, at the 58.5% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.99%, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week, at the 21.2% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 81.1%, 76.8%, 87.3%, and 71.4% quantiles of the past 5 years respectively, and their relative valuation levels were not low [66][71]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal laws, the stock market is in a period of seasonal shock - driven growth and structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There are opportunities to go long on IC and IM on pullbacks and short on IF and IH on sharp rallies [74]. - **Financial Calendar**: China will release July's manufacturing and service industry PMI and industrial enterprise profits, which will help confirm economic recovery. Overseas, attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll report, job vacancies, manufacturing PMI, PCE inflation data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [76].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]

Core Point - The European Union has approved a countermeasure plan imposing tariffs on U.S. products totaling €93 billion [1] Group 1 - The measure was voted on and passed by EU member states on July 24 [1] - The total amount of the counter-tariffs is €93 billion [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on the same day, with the Dow Jones up by 1.14%, Nasdaq up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 up by 0.78%, reflecting a positive market reaction to the news [1] Group 2 - The European Union is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations with the U.S., planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [2] - The EU's countermeasures include merging previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of U.S. goods with a new list covering €720 billion, which will be submitted for approval by EU member states [2] - Key U.S. products affected by these potential tariffs include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The White House announced that Japan will increase its imports of U.S. rice by 75% and expand its import quotas significantly [3] - Japan is set to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel [3] - A new agreement is being explored for Alaska's liquefied natural gas, and Japan has committed to purchasing U.S.-made commercial aircraft, including a deal for 100 Boeing planes [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is preparing to retaliate against the United States' tariffs, with a new countermeasure list that includes a wide range of American products valued at €72 billion [5][6] - The EU's countermeasure list is detailed and spans 206 pages, including items such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [5] - Despite the EU's ability to retaliate with other goods, it has refrained from including major U.S. military products in its countermeasure list due to its reliance on U.S. military supplies [6][8] Group 2 - Brazil is also considering a response to U.S. tariffs, with President Lula announcing the formation of a cross-departmental committee to strategize on trade negotiations and countermeasures [10][11] - The actions of the EU and Brazil indicate a growing resistance among countries against U.S. tariff policies, which could lead to a broader international backlash if successful [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the imposition of tariffs and the potential for retaliatory measures. Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The U.S. President announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [1] - The EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. products if trade negotiations fail [1] Group 2: EU Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory list includes high-value items such as airplanes and chemicals, as well as products like whiskey and nails [2] - The EU previously considered a 50% tariff on bourbon whiskey from Kentucky, prompting a potential 200% tariff from the U.S. on EU alcoholic products [2] Group 3: EU's Stance and Negotiations - German Chancellor Merkel emphasized that the U.S. should not underestimate the EU's willingness to respond with tariffs [3][4] - The EU is currently exercising restraint in its retaliatory measures, aiming for a swift resolution to the tariff dispute [4] - Ongoing discussions between EU trade representatives and U.S. officials indicate a desire for a favorable outcome in the tariff standoff [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail, following the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods by U.S. President Trump [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU's countermeasure list spans 206 pages and targets over €65 billion in industrial products, including aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [2]. - Agricultural products account for approximately €6 billion, with fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) being the most affected [2]. - The initial list targeted €95 billion in U.S. goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [4]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - EU officials express disappointment over the U.S. tariff announcement, which they believe disrupts ongoing negotiations that were close to reaching an agreement [4]. - The new tariffs have negatively impacted European stock markets, with analysts noting that the 30% tariff far exceeds initial expectations of a 10% tariff [4]. - If the 30% tariff is implemented, trade between the EU and the U.S. could become "nearly impossible" [4]. Group 3: EU's Strategic Alliances - The EU plans to strengthen ties with countries affected by U.S. tariffs, including Japan and Canada, and is seeking to expand cooperation in the Pacific region [1][8]. - The EU is also negotiating trade agreements with countries in the Southern Common Market and aims to establish global partnerships to counter U.S. pressure [8]. - There is a growing trend among countries, including Canada and Brazil, to seek independent trade paths and reduce reliance on the U.S. [8].