Joe, always good to see you. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Thank you.Very good to be with you, Jennifer. Happy holidays. >> Happy holidays to you.And what a way to kick off the holidays with such a stellar third quarter GDP number up 4.3% a full percentage point above expectations and driven by consumer spending up three and a half% though a large chunk of that from healthcare spending. Though we also saw trade really add to this number as well. Joe, can we see this level of growth sustained into next y ...

Market Trends & Economic Indicators - GDP增长远超预期，达到4.3%，为2023年第三季度以来的最高水平 [1][9] - 个人消费增长3.5%，储蓄率为4.2%，高于历史平均水平2% [9][10] - 生产力出现数十年未见的增长 [11] - 全球范围内利率都在上升，日本今年已两次加息，年初加息50个基点，最近又加息25个基点 [4][5] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Apollo的Torstston认为长期利率将维持在较高水平 [1] - 德意志银行提高了收益率预期 [1] - 市场可能需要重新考虑美联储采取鹰派立场的可能性 [2][16] - 市场已消化了美联储可能放松政策的预期，这对小盘股等板块有利 [3] - 长期利率可能维持在3%-4%的水平，而非0%-1% [6] - 如果美联储采取更强硬的立场，市场可能会出现波动 [17] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - 投资者应为长期高利率做好准备 [1][13] - 在利率波动较大的情况下，投资者可能更倾向于大型股和优质金融股 [15] - 建议投资者在市场强劲时适当降低风险，例如减少成长型股票的配置 [19][20] - 美国10年期国债收益率自2023年6月以来一直未低于3.5%，在此期间标普500指数上涨超过60% [14] Earnings & Equity Market Outlook - 标普500指数在2023年上涨24%，2024年上涨23%，目前已上涨17% [9] - 在GDP增长2%的情况下，企业盈利通常增长8%-10% [11] - 预计明年企业盈利将实现10%到15%左右的增长 [12] - 即使经济数据表现良好，未来的经济走向更为重要 [19]

This is a stock market that the president loves to Trump. It's near all time highs. Why worry about it on a day like today when you've got great economic news.Well, you can see in this truth post that Trump is really, really worried about interest rates in particular. This is you know, he's supposed to be meeting with Rick Rieder, potential Fed chair this week. And as he's kind of started to figure out, is that he is not able to compel markets to do exactly what he wants them to do.We've seen this time and ...

Economic Messaging and Market Reactions - The president is concerned about interest rates and is meeting with potential Fed chair Rick Rieder, indicating a struggle to influence market behavior as desired [1] - The president's attempts to communicate positive economic news to traders have not aligned with the Federal Reserve's and traders' perspectives on the broader economy, which shows warning signs [2] - The president's economic messaging has been complicated, as he tries to create a narrative that may not be sustainable in the long term [3] Public Perception vs. Economic Indicators - The president's team aims to focus on affordability and pocketbook issues that resonate with voters, but the president remains fixated on metrics like the stock market that may not reflect the average person's experience [4] - While the stock market may be performing well, the general public is facing challenges such as rising rent, housing affordability, and increased grocery bills, which have risen by 25% compared to a couple of years ago [5]

Joining us now is Bill Smei. He's the chief investment officer at Sme Capital Management. Bill, it's great to see you again.Welcome. >> Hey, great to be with you. >> Jump in here.You can pick the housing piece first if there's anything in that last discussion that you know you wanted to chime in on. >> Well, I I I don't want to pick on your prior guest too much, but somebody once said if you put all the economists end to end, you'd never get anywhere. >> Understood.But where so do you come down as as in thi ...

Policymakers were reluctant to predict whether the next change in interest rates would be up or down, citing volatile data and elevated trade-policy uncertainty. ...

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chairman is urged to lower interest rates if the market is performing well, rather than negatively impacting the market without justification [1] Group 1 - The desire for a market that reacts positively to good news and negatively to bad news is emphasized, reflecting a return to traditional market behavior [1] - The potential for significant GDP growth, estimated at 10, 15, or even 20 points in a year, is highlighted as a benefit of maintaining a favorable market environment [1] - The assertion that inflation will self-correct over time, with the option to raise rates later if necessary, indicates a belief in a flexible monetary policy approach [1]

For more on what this all means for the markets, let's bring in UBS Global Wealth Senior Portfolio Manager, Alan Rex Shaffen. Alan, thank you for being here. Um, what do you make of Kevin Hassid's comments there.>> You know, I I think it's Leslie, thank you for having me on, Carl. Thank you. Um, what you saw in 2025 was a period of fog and uncertainty.And I think what you heard from from Kevin Hasset and what you're seeing in the administration that 2026 is going to be a time of clarity, of normalization, a ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to see a resurgence in real estate stocks and funds due to a decrease in the Consumer Price Index to 2.7%, which is below the consensus forecast of 3.0% or higher, leading to lower interest rate expectations and boosting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate [1][2]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The prolonged government shutdown is distorting economic data, but the market is reacting positively with hopes for lower interest rates, enhancing the appeal of real estate equities and REITs as yield-oriented investments heading into 2026 [2]. - The U.S. real estate market is currently stable but slightly below average in buyer activity, primarily due to affordability issues and a lack of desirable housing options [3]. - Homebuilding stocks are expected to perform well in 2026, driven by lower inflation and potential economic stimulants such as tax cuts [3]. Key Real Estate Stocks - **Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT)**: - Year-to-date performance is 65.4%, with a current trading price of $18.90 per share and an average 12-month price target of $22 to $25, indicating an implied upside of 11% [5][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates and its acquisitions, positioning it favorably in the housing market for 2026 [6][7]. - **Prologis Inc. (NYSE:PLD)**: - Year-to-date performance is 20.8%, trading at $127 per share with an average 12-month price target of $130 to $132, reflecting a 4% implied upside [8][9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increased demand in logistics and industrial properties, particularly due to e-commerce growth and lower borrowing costs [8][9]. - **Digital Realty Trust (NYSE:DLR)**: - Year-to-date performance is -16%, currently trading at $148 per share with an average 12-month price target of $197 to $199, indicating a 30% upside [10][11]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth driven by digital transformation and AI workloads, with a projected 11% revenue CAGR and 12% EBITDA CAGR from 2026 to 2029 [11]. Investment Trends - Investors are advised to be cautious, particularly avoiding traditional enclosed shopping malls and highly leveraged development REITs, as these sectors face structural challenges and risks in a higher-rate environment [12][13]. - There is a unique opportunity for investors to capitalize on quality real estate opportunities amid market transitions, with stronger fundamentals than suggested by headlines [14].

Group 1 - US inflation data showed a year-over-year CPI of 2.7% for November, lower than the expected 3.1%, with core inflation at 2.6%, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin [3] - The November inflation report is considered unreliable due to a six-week government shutdown that led to estimates rather than actual market data, particularly affecting rents and services [4] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the distortion in inflation data and maintains a cautious stance, indicating no immediate need for further rate cuts, which impacts Bitcoin's trading behavior as it is increasingly viewed as a macro asset [5] Group 2 - Despite three rate cuts, real yields on 10-year TIPS remain around 1.9%, reducing the urgency for investors to chase Bitcoin compared to the negative real rates seen in 2020-21 [7] - Bitcoin's price struggles to break the $90,000 mark, indicating a significant sell wall that is being actively refreshed, suggesting strategic selling rather than panic [1][2]