Core Viewpoint - The Fidelity Dividend ETF for Rising Rates (FDRR) targets U.S. large- and mid-cap companies that are likely to pay and increase dividends, showing a positive correlation with rising interest rates [1] Group 1 - FDRR provides exposure to companies expected to enhance their dividend payouts [1] - The ETF focuses on large- and mid-cap companies within the U.S. market [1] - The strategy is designed to benefit from a rising interest rate environment [1]

Macro Economy - The 10-year Treasury yield initially went to 4% first, briefly hitting a 52-week low of 388% in April, before rising again to around 415% [2][3] - The labor market weakened, with monthly job additions declining from over 100,000 to an average of around 17,000 in the past 6 months, and the unemployment rate rising from 4% to 46% [5] - Despite initial market concerns, the Trump administration's policies have overall been favorable for stocks, with the NASDAQ up over 21%, the S&P up almost 17%, and the Dow up almost 14% for the year [7] - S&P 500 earnings growth for 2024 is expected to be slightly lower than anticipated, around 10% instead of 12%, but earnings expectations for 2025 and 2026 have gradually climbed back to levels above initial forecasts [13][15] Market Performance & Outlook - The market initially reacted negatively to potential tariffs, with the S&P falling 21%, but quickly rebounded after the tariffs were reduced or postponed [8] - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), particularly the immediate expensing of capital investments, could be a significant catalyst for earnings growth in 2026 [9] - Earnings growth is considered the most important determinant of stock direction, and the earnings growth outlook has improved over the past 12 months [17][18] - Earnings expectations for 2026 are now nearly 14%, higher than the initial projection of 12%, setting a high benchmark for market performance [16] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly cutting short-term interest rates, have influenced the tenure, which has touched the 4% level multiple times [2] - There is a lack of consensus on the number of rate cuts needed from the Federal Reserve, even among members of the open market committee [4] - Labor market weakness has allowed the Fed to remain accommodative [6]

>> AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, WE RAN THIS THREE PART SEGMENT ON MY 25 QUESTIONS FOR 20 2025. LOOK, I CAME UP WITH FOUR BIG MACRO QUESTIONS, ONE QUESTION FOR EACH OF THE 11 MAJOR SECTORS AND OF COURSE, TEN TECH SPECIFIC QUESTIONS. SO NOW THAT THE YEAR IS NEARLY OVER.LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ANSWERS. FIRST QUESTION, DOES THE YIELD ON THE TEN YEAR TREASURY GO TO 4% OR 5% FIRST OR NEITHER. AT THE TIME, THE TENURE WAS SITTING AT JUST OVER 4.5%.AND THIS IS ONE WHERE WE GOT A DEFINITIVE ANSWER BECAUSE THE TEN ...

The Russell 2000 has had a strong year, hitting all-time highs a few weeks ago and pacing for its eighth straight month of gains. Its best run since mid 2021, but what can we expect for the group in 2026. Let's turn to our resident small cap expert Julie Beiel.What do you think the backdrop will be for small caps, Julie. >> I I think it looks pretty positive. You know, small caps are more economically sensitive and they should be benefiting from lower interest rates because they tend to borrow on a variable ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 has experienced significant gains, reaching all-time highs and is expected to continue its positive trend into 2026, particularly benefiting from lower interest rates and economic sensitivity [1][2]. Small Cap Outlook - Small caps are anticipated to outperform larger caps due to their economic sensitivity and the favorable impact of lower interest rates on their borrowing costs [2]. - Despite a confusing year where low-quality small cap companies have outperformed, the long-term outlook remains positive for small caps, especially as earnings growth becomes more pronounced [3][4]. Investment Opportunities - Companies identified as potential investment opportunities include: - Ali's, a discount value retailer, which is well-positioned to meet consumer demand for value across income spectrums [4]. - LMT, a healthcare company with differentiated products for vascular surgeons, showing strong pricing and margin potential [5]. - Mullis, a company acquiring top talent in private equity, positioned to benefit from a favorable regulatory environment and potential earnings growth [7]. Economic Considerations - The economic backdrop for small caps is generally positive, but concerns exist regarding the potential for rising interest rates and unemployment, which could hinder small cap performance in 2026 [9].

Can the positive momentum continue. Joining us now is Kay Okamura. He is New Burger Berman's portfolio manager for Japanese equities.And Kay, it's great to have you on the show. Given the fact that the bank of the Japan Bank of Japan has been hiking, can the equity market continue to power higher. >> Hi, thanks for having me on the show, Marine.So, let me let me break that down to a couple parts. First of all, uh we do think that the market can go higher and that's on the back of the fundamentals and the va ...

Market Outlook for 2026 - The market indicates positive underlying economic factors despite business challenges in the current year [2] - Broadening market trends are expected to continue, benefiting growth stocks into 2026 [3] - Momentum heading into the new year is strong, supported by earnings and a potentially stable or easing Federal Reserve policy [4] - Confusion around market leadership (Mag 7 vs broader market) is expected to persist, requiring focus on earnings and Fed policy [9] Historical Context & Potential Risks - The average bull market lasts about five years, suggesting the current one is still relatively early [6] - Stocks have only risen for four consecutive years with double-digit percentage gains once in the last 100 years, highlighting potential for a market correction [10] Supporting Factors - Constructive elements from a major bill passed this summer are beginning to materialize [7] - Clarity around tariff policy, consumer-related factors (back tax refunds), and deregulation efforts are expected to support business growth [7] - Fundamental underpinnings and earnings are supporting current valuations [8]

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot's stock is under pressure due to high interest rates, despite some improvement in home sales in recent months [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - Home sales showed improvement in October and September, with 4 million existing homes sold in both months, but many potential buyers remain hesitant [3] - Mortgage rates have decreased from 7% at the beginning of the year to around 6.2%-6.3% for 30-year loans, yet buyers are still waiting for more favorable conditions [3][5] - The stabilization of the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.15%-4.2% is not expected to provide support for the housing market [4] Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - Home Depot's recent earnings report presented a more optimistic outlook, but analysts are skeptical about the feasibility of their best-case scenario, which predicts a 4-5% increase in comparable sales [8][9] - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions in the professional contractor segment, which now accounts for 50% of its sales [10] - Analysts suggest that Home Depot may not be the best investment at this time, recommending Lowe's as a better option for those interested in the home improvement sector [10] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is advised, with a "wait and see" strategy recommended for Home Depot until there is more evidence of improving home sales and lower mortgage rates [7][11] - A proposed trading strategy involves selling cash-secured puts at a $340 strike price, with a potential profit of $4.50 per share, reflecting a neutral to bullish outlook [14][15]

At the end of that speech at Columbia, you nodded to the fact that recessions are inevitable. Fed's job It's going to forestall them as much as they can. Policymakers, jobs or that.I'm very curious when you look at the labor market in particular, the rise that we've seen in the unemployment rate, that's kind of rise we've seen customarily before recessions. How do you assess the risk of there being a recession here in the near term when you look at the labor market, for instance. So I don't see a recession ...