Gold was steady — and on track for a fourth monthly gain — as signs the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month supported the precious metal https://t.co/STwYFCXHrt ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government long bond futures may experience a rally due to unforeseen events that could lead to a flight to quality, which historically lifts bond prices and lowers long-term yields [1] - The U.S. bond market and currency are viewed as the most stable for global reserves, suggesting potential upside during turbulent times [1] Bond Market Performance - Long bond futures were at 117-10 on September 10, 2025, while the TLT ETF was priced at $89.40 per share [2] - As of late November, both bonds and TLT were marginally higher but remained within their trading ranges as the debt market prepares for 2026 [2] Historical Trends - The bear market for the 30-Year U.S. Government Treasury Bond futures began in March 2020 at a high of 191-22 and reached a low of 107-04 in October 2023, indicating a sideways trading pattern closer to the 2023 low [3] - Since 2024, bonds have traded within a narrow range of 110-01 to 127-22, despite the Fed reducing the short-term Fed Funds Rate to a midpoint of 3.875% [4] Interest Rate Dynamics - Although the Fed cut rates by 1% in 2024 and by 50 basis points in 2025, longer-term interest rates have remained in a narrow sideways trend, indicating stagnation in the bond market [4] TLT ETF Analysis - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moves in correlation with long-term U.S. government bond futures [5] - TLT has fallen over 54% from its 2020 high of $179.70 to an October 2023 low of $82.42, trading within a range of $83.30 to $101.64 in 2024 and 2025 [6] - As of late November, TLT was priced at $90.52, just below the midpoint of its trading range, reflecting elevated long-term U.S. interest rates [6]

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

Australia’s central bank may need to raise interest rates as early as the first half of 2026 if economic growth quickens and the labor market tightens, according to Sally Auld, chief economist at National Australia Bank https://t.co/R7qNiUudOU ...

Economists over at at JPMorgan are predicting the US central bank will cut rates next month after all: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/D2e1qhsQN0 ...

Hello everyone. We got a very special episode for you today. We've got a housing expert that's going to join us and explain exactly what's going on with home affordability.Why it's actually been improving in 2025, but it's probably too little too late and people don't care about that small little bit of improvement. On top of that, we're going to talk about the fear and greed index and why it just flashed a sign that explains that investors that are buying right now may actually be very, very happy in a cou ...

JUST IN: JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. https://t.co/Y9cyv7dPyG ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BBVA Argentina's inflation-adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was ARS 38.1 billion, a decrease of 39.7% quarter-over-quarter, resulting in a quarterly ROE and ROA of 4.7% [8][9] - The capital ratio decreased by 170 basis points to 16.7%, primarily due to the temporary impact of sovereign debt valuation, yet remains at ample levels to support growth [7][15] - The liquidity ratio reached 44.3% of deposits, down from 48.7% in the previous quarter [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loans to the private sector grew by 6.7% in real terms, with a consolidated market share of 11.39% [6][13] - Deposits increased by 10.2% in real terms, with market share rising to 10.09% [7][14] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for private loans was 3.28%, below the system average, reflecting effective credit risk management [7][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposit rates surged from 30% in July to peaks of 70% in September due to political uncertainty and monetary policy changes [4] - The demand for exchange rate hedging increased, leading to some dollarization of deposits [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on operational efficiency through strict expense control and active pricing strategies to navigate a volatile interest rate environment [3][5] - BBVA Argentina aims to maintain growth in credit and operational efficiency while managing risks associated with high NPLs [17] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the high interest rates have negatively impacted intermediation margins and increased provisions for loan losses, but they expect a recovery in 2026 [5][35] - The company anticipates a gradual return of retail loan demand, while commercial loans, particularly in US dollars, are expected to grow significantly [45][55] Other Important Information - The bank's total operating expenses decreased by 3.4% quarter-over-quarter, attributed to proactive efficiency measures [10][11] - The bank continued dividend payments corresponding to the 2024 financial year, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on loan and deposit growth - Management confirmed maintaining guidance of 45%-50% real loan growth and 30%-35% deposit growth, with ROE expectations in the high single digits [22][23] Question: Loan growth authenticity amid economic stagnation - Management believes the loan growth is genuine, primarily driven by US dollar loans to companies, while personal loans have seen no growth due to high NPLs [23] Question: Impact of reserve requirements on liquidity and NIM - Management noted recent changes in reserve requirements that will improve liquidity and profitability, expecting NIM to stabilize and potentially increase in Q4 2025 [32][38] Question: Asset quality outlook amid rising NPLs - Management expects NPLs to rise slightly in Q4 but anticipates a decrease in 2026 as the economic environment stabilizes [34][35] Question: Optimal capital level and future capital strategy - Management aims for a capital ratio around 17% for 2025, with a comfortable minimum level slightly below 13% for future growth [46][47] Question: Risks in credit expansion post-election - Management does not foresee issues related to capital or liquidity but emphasizes caution regarding retail NPLs [54] Question: Coverage ratios and cost of risk outlook - Management is comfortable with current coverage ratios of 98%-100% for 2025, projecting improvements in 2026 [62]

Over the past year, one in three condo owners in Manhattan who sold sold at a loss. If we pan out and look at the Manhattan market over 10, 20 years, what's happened with prices over that time. Did did people make money.Especially when you compare it to some of the the hotter markets. >> Yeah, I think uh Manhattan has pretty much been flat. I don't think that there people have like cashed in, sold their apartments, and made money.That just hasn't happened. Condominiums have often been looked at as a way for ...

Market Performance - Shares in Europe and Asia advanced following a surge on Wall Street, driven by hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates [2] - The S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.2% [2] - In early European trading, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 both increased by 0.2%, while Britain's FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% [2] - The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo rose 1.9%, while South Korea's Kospi gained 2.7%, supported by a 3.5% increase in Samsung Electronics [2] - The Russell 2000 index of the smallest U.S. stocks jumped 2.1%, indicating a strong performance among smaller companies [2] Economic Indicators - Mixed economic data has led traders to bet on an 83% probability that the Fed will cut rates in December [2] - U.S. retail sales in September were lower than expected, and consumer confidence worsened more than anticipated in November, suggesting the economy may need support from lower interest rates [2] - A report indicated that U.S. wholesale inflation was slightly worse than expected in September, although a closely tracked underlying trend showed improvement [2] Company-Specific Developments - Kioxia shares dropped 14.9% due to reports that Bain Capital plans to sell $2.3 billion of the company's shares [2] - Alibaba's shares fell 1.9% after reporting profits that fell short of forecasts, despite stronger-than-expected revenue for the latest quarter [2]