Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following a lower close on Monday, with major indices showing negative performance [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite fell over 100 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.6% and the Dow gained 1.1% in the previous week [1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.16%, and the two-year bond was at 3.49%, with a 73.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates [2] - Upcoming economic data includes official payroll data for October and November and October retail sales, which are anticipated to influence market sentiment [1][15] Company Performance - Roku Inc. shares increased by 4.10% after its CFO sold shares, and Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Equalweight to Overweight, raising the price target from $85.00 to $135.00 [6] - Blue Owl Capital Inc. rose 1.22% after announcing a $2.5 billion commitment and a $50 million equity injection to support new financial products for retirees [6] - B Riley Financial Inc. surged 25.54% after reporting earnings of $4.50 per share, a significant improvement from a loss of $14.35 per share a year ago, with sales increasing to $225.302 million from $94.885 million [6] Sector Performance - Energy, health care, utilities, and consumer discretionary sectors saw the largest gains, while the information technology sector closed lower [7] - The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 all recorded declines in their respective performances [8] Analyst Insights - LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist forecasts a continuation of the current bull market into 2026, driven by enthusiasm around AI and easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [9] - The anticipated capital expenditures in AI are projected to reach approximately $520 billion in 2026, which is expected to support earnings growth [10] Company Guidance - Navan Inc. fell 11.17% after issuing weaker-than-expected FY2026 guidance, anticipating sales of $685 million to $687 million compared to market estimates of $830.87 million [12] - Lennar Corp. was slightly lower as analysts expect it to report earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $9.02 billion [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron dissented at the recent Fed meeting, advocating for steeper rate cuts due to concerns about tight monetary policy and its potential negative impact on the labor market and unemployment rates [1][2][4]. Inflation Analysis - Myron believes that underlying inflation is closer to the Fed's target than reported, arguing that the current inflation metrics are distorted by measurement quirks, particularly in the housing market and imputed prices for non-market services [3][5][8]. - He highlights that housing inflation is lagging due to the way rents are calculated, which does not reflect current market conditions, and anticipates a downward convergence in inflation as market rents have been growing at about a 1% rate for several years [6][7][14]. - Myron points out that portfolio management fees have contributed significantly to inflation metrics, despite being in a long-term downward trend, suggesting that these measurement issues should not dictate monetary policy [9][11][32]. Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate ticking up, but Myron argues that the overall labor market remains in a good place and is not under severe stress [22][24][34]. - He emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on employment rather than economic growth, as Congress has directed, and expresses concern that maintaining tight policy could lead to a weaker labor market in the future [22][27]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Myron advocates for a forward-looking monetary policy approach, suggesting that the Fed should make decisions based on forecasts rather than solely on current data, due to the inherent lags in monetary policy effects [58]. - He expresses that if the current trajectory of inflation and the labor market continues, the Fed could face significant challenges by 2027 if policy remains too tight [27][25]. Market Reactions - Myron acknowledges that while the Fed is cutting rates, market rates, particularly long-term rates, have not reflected these cuts, keeping mortgage rates high [35][36]. - He anticipates that long-term rates will eventually decline alongside short-term rates, despite some skepticism in the market regarding the impact of rate cuts [37][38].

>> WELCOME BACK. OUR NEXT GUEST ISSUED A DISSENTING VOTE AT LAST WEEK'S BIG FED MEETING, PUSHING FOR EVEN STEEPER RATE CUTS. JOINING US HERE AT POST NINE IN A CNBC EXCLUSIVE IS FEDERAL RESERVE GOVERNOR STEPHEN MYRON.GOVERNOR, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK AT POST NINE. WELCOME. >> GOOD DAY.THANKS FOR HAVING ME BACK. >> SO I KNOW YOU JUST GAVE THIS BIG SPEECH AT COLUMBIA ABOUT INFLATION. AND BEFORE WE DIVE INTO THAT, MAYBE YOU COULD JUST EXPLAIN WHY YOU DISSENTED FOR EVEN SHARPER RATE CUTS WHEN SOME OF YOUR CO ...

The US government wants to supercharge GDP growth.They will need artificial intelligence, easy monetary policy, and significant deregulation to get it done. https://t.co/vjdVx9f6dI ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut positions it well to address future economic challenges, with expectations of moderating inflation and a cooling job market [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee has shifted from a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance towards a neutral position, which is deemed well-suited as the economy approaches 2026 [2]. - The Fed aims to bring inflation back to the 2% target without creating undue risks to employment [2]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to improve next year as uncertainty decreases and inflation pressures ease [4]. - The impact of tariffs on prices has been less significant than anticipated, leading to one-time price increases rather than persistent inflation [4]. Inflation and Employment Projections - Inflation is projected to moderate to 2.5% in the next year and reach 2% by 2027 [5]. - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% this year, but with a forecasted growth of 2.25% next year, a gradual decrease in unemployment is anticipated over the following years [5]. - The cooling labor market is described as a gradual process without signs of sharp layoffs or rapid deterioration [5]. Financial Sector Liquidity - The Fed's recent asset buying of Treasury bills is aimed at rebuilding financial sector liquidity, ensuring firm control over interest rate targets, although some view it as a form of stimulus [6].

On Friday, the president told telling the Wall Street Journal he was leaning towards [music] choosing Hasset for former Federal Reserve uh and Governor Worsh also potentially to run the Fed. Steve Leeman joins us now on more with some commentary on the two Kevin. Who do what do you think.Poly Market says Hasset. Are you on the Hasset end or on the worst end. >> I I'm on either end. I'm on the end of trying to report what's going on.>> Well, I'm not saying what you're who you who you'd like. I'm saying but t ...

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and economic outlook, impacting the financial services and investment banking sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Rate Cut Announcement**: The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75% with a focus on data dependency for future adjustments [6][9][10] 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: There were three dissents during the meeting; two members favored holding rates steady while one member advocated for a larger 50 basis point cut [6][20] 3. **Labor Market Concerns**: Chair Powell indicated that the labor market is showing signs of cooling, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points since June [26][30] 4. **Inflation Outlook**: The Fed noted a slight decrease in inflation pressures, particularly in services, while goods inflation remains influenced by tariffs [28][29] 5. **Future Rate Cuts**: The Fed is expected to consider further cuts in January and April, contingent on labor market stability and inflation trends [9][30][34] 6. **Economic Projections**: The Fed upgraded its growth projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook despite ongoing risks [35][37] 7. **Reserve Management Purchases**: The Fed will initiate purchases of Treasury bills at a pace of $40 billion per month to maintain ample reserves, which is distinct from quantitative easing [12][15][77] 8. **Market Reactions**: The announcement led to a positive response in agency mortgages and a rally in Treasury yields, indicating market confidence in the Fed's approach [58][97] Additional Important Content 1. **Data Dependency**: The Fed emphasized a return to a data-dependent approach for future rate adjustments, raising the bar for further cuts [16][24] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate is now viewed as being above the longer-run estimate, which could signal potential concerns for future economic stability [18][19] 3. **Balance of Risks**: The Fed sees risks to growth and inflation as more balanced than in previous assessments, indicating a shift in outlook among FOMC members [37][39] 4. **Trade Ideas**: Recommendations for investors include maintaining long positions in UST 5-year notes and entering buy contracts for FFJ6, reflecting expectations of future rate cuts [69][75] 5. **Housing Market Challenges**: Powell acknowledged ongoing challenges in the housing market, suggesting that a 25 basis point rate cut may not significantly impact housing demand due to low supply and existing low-rate mortgages [101]

Core Insights - The iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD) has underperformed, down nearly 8% year to date, making it one of the laggards among global ETFs [4][5] - The ETF, which tracks the S&P Global Timber & Forestry Index, has a market capitalization of $226.3 million and has been affected by a downturn in the residential real estate market [5][6] - Despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, lower mortgage rates have not significantly boosted home sales, further impacting lumber demand [7][9] Performance Analysis - The Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) has increased by 21.39% this year, highlighting the poor performance of the timber ETF in comparison [2] - The timber ETF's performance is compounded by rising home delistings and canceled purchase agreements, indicating a lack of agreement between buyers and sellers [9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates have led homeowners to avoid borrowing for home repairs, which is a primary source of lumber demand [6][7] - The ETF's individual holdings, such as Weyerhaeuser, may present value opportunities, as it is trading below the value of its timberland [11] Future Outlook - Potential changes in monetary policy, including the retirement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, could lead to easier monetary conditions and possibly stimulate the housing market [10] - For the ETF to rebound in 2026, it will require both favorable market conditions and investor confidence in its holdings [11]

Buckle up, kiddos. And keep your wallets and portfolios close. The Federal Reserve heads into 2026 swirling in a messy mix of economic pressures and political uncertainties. While the actual impact on interest rates remains to be seen, there is little doubt the takeaways from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are ripe with concerns about the turgid tensions in inflation rates and the job market. Plus, there’s the Shakespearean drama engulfing the replacement of Jerome Powell when ...

We also more or less topped on apathy rather than topping on euphoria. Bitcoin has really stalled out. And really what you want to look at in this case is if you look at Bitcoin divided by the S&P 500, what you'll notice it's actually near where it was back in March.It hasn't really moved a whole lot. This purple line shows the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. And you can see that as the balance sheet started to, you know, as it as it went as we went from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, ...