So let's talk about the other side of the mandate, the inflation uh side. ...

Joining us this morning, Yordenni Research President Ed Yardi joins us. Ed, I've been thinking about you and sort of your general optimism about certainly the earnings trajectory right now. What do you think is this little hiccup's about.Is it about August. >> I Yeah, I think it's about uh the Fed meeting in September. I think there's a concern that uh maybe it's not 80% after all as the odds of a Fed rate cut.Uh I I if I had to put my own probability on it, it's under 50%. I'll give you 40%. Uh I'm still i ...

Federal Reserve Policy - The market sell-off coincides with rising risk of no rate cut [1] - Attention is focused on the labor market as a key factor influencing the Fed's decisions, despite earlier FOMC minutes emphasizing inflation [2][3][5] - A 50 basis points rate cut is unlikely, with the probability of a 25 basis points cut decreasing to 77% from nearly 100% [4] - The Fed previously cut rates aggressively based on perceived labor market weakness [6] Labor Market - A weak July labor market report could trigger the Fed to act, even without inflation reaching the target [3] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maintaining stable prices and full employment [7] Tariffs and Consumer Spending - Retailers report mixed impacts from tariffs, with some initially absorbing costs but later changing their approach [9][10] - The impact of tariffs is difficult to assess due to ongoing announcements, delays, and rate adjustments [10] - Inflation data and company reports show a bifurcated impact, with some companies benefiting from front-run ordering and inventory building [11]

The Kansas City Fed economic po policy symposium starts today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And that is where we find our senior economics reporter, Steve Gleeman. He has a special interview for us.Steve, good morning, Becky. As is tradition, we sat down with the host of the symposium, the Kansas City Fed President, and I started by asking Jeff Schmidt, now in his second year as president, for his comments about allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook. we have responsibilities responsibilit ...

Ahead of Jackson Hole, Fed’s Schmid flags inflation as key concernn https://t.co/fCujUYKGUj ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook amidst mortgage fraud allegations [1][2] - The potential firing of Lisa Cook is seen as part of Trump's broader effort to influence the Fed and push for lower interest rates [4][10] - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year, but concerns about inflation persist [14] - The Fed faces a difficult situation with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [16] - The CME Group's Fed watch tool indicates around 80% probability of a September rate cut [12] Allegations Against Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook is accused of listing two different residences as her primary residence on mortgage applications [3][6] - The head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has referred the allegations to the Justice Department [2][3] - It is noted that there may be circumstances where listing two primary residences is permissible, such as co-signing for a dependent [3][7] Market Expectations & Fed's Stance - The market anticipates Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slightly open the door to a rate cut in September [13] - Recent weak jobs numbers and downward revisions to hiring in May and June could tilt the scales towards a rate cut [14] - The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed members remain focused on inflation [11][13] - Only two out of twelve Fed members indicated that the risks of lower employment outweigh those of inflation [12]

All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...

For more on the broader market, let's bring in TD Cowan's president Jeff Solomon's here at Post9. Talk about 6% sub 6% mortgage rates. You think we get it like Marvin's hopes? >> I mean, we could. I I I do think the next move for the Fed is to go lower, though. We've had this ongoing debate, right? I just don't think I think it's going to be higher for longer and I think it's because we've seen resilience in the in the in in the economy. Uh if you just take a look at, by the way, just this is something we'r ...

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - CNBC's Fed survey indicates respondents anticipate two rate cuts, totaling 50 basis points, with 25 basis points expected in September and another 25 in December [6] - The market is pricing in an 84% probability of a rate cut, leaving a 16% probability of no cut [9] - A majority (70%) of respondents believe Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will be neutral [3][4] - The market may be disappointed if Powell's speech is neutral or doesn't address policy at all [7][8] Inflation Outlook - Despite expectations of rate cuts, inflation is projected to remain around 3% this year and next, exceeding the Fed's target by 1 percentage point [6] - 63% of respondents believe substantial price increases are on the way due to tariffs [3] Potential Fed Chair Replacement - The survey suggests Kevin Hasset is the most likely candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell, according to respondents, but they believe former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be a better choice [2][3][4] - Among named candidates, Hasset is the frontrunner, followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, and former St Louis Fed President James Bullard [3] - 41% of respondents believe the next Fed chair will conduct policy independently of the president, while 37% think it will be in coordination [4]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks about the U.S. economy, his inflation outlook and potential interest rate forecasts at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. #Fed #JeromePowell #WSJ ...