Core Viewpoint - The main concern of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President is the state of the job market, while also indicating that current monetary policy should assist in reducing inflation to the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 1 - The job market is highlighted as a primary concern by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson [1] - Current monetary policy is expected to help achieve the inflation target of 2% set by the Federal Reserve [1]

By Michael S. Derby NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said Friday her main concern right now is the state of ​the job market, in remarks that also said the current state of monetary ‌policy should help bring down inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. “On net, I am still a little more concerned ‌about labor market weakness than about upside risks to inflation,” Paulson said in a speech prepared for a gathering held by the Delaware State Chamber of Commer ...

The Bank of Japan is moving to raise its policy rate at the Dec. 18-19 monetary policy meeting with a 25-basis-point increase from 0.5% to 0.75% emerging as the leading option, Nikkei has learned. This would be the first hike since January 2025 and will lead to a level not seen since 1995. https://t.co/c0llUnfDKD ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Board has unanimously approved the reappointment of all 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents and first vice presidents, interpreted as a strategic move to protect the central bank from political interference [1][2][4] - The reappointments, which follow a standard schedule, secure the leadership of the Federal Reserve System's operating arm for a new five-year term starting March 1, 2026 [2][7] - The decision effectively locks in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee's rotating voters through 2031, preventing potential political leverage during upcoming term expirations [3][4] Leadership and Evaluation - The reappointments followed a "comprehensive review" initiated in December 2024 by non-political boards of directors at each regional bank, assessing leaders on performance dimensions such as effectiveness and community engagement [5] - Extended terms have been confirmed for key policy figures, including New York Fed President John C. Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, with exceptions for Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Shonda S. Clay [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global economic outlook, focusing on the United States, Euro area, Japan, China, and India, with insights into various macroeconomic indicators and monetary policies. Core Insights and Arguments United States - **Economic Growth**: The U.S. economy is expected to experience a modest growth trajectory, with real consumer spending resilient at 2.7% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (q/q saar) for Q3 2025. However, there are signs of a potential slowdown due to tariff impacts and labor market data [16][44]. - **Inflation**: Core inflation is projected to remain above 2% through 2027, with a temporary dip expected in early 2026 due to base effects and fuel tax changes. The wage-price dynamic will be crucial for inflation trends moving forward [44][23]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to ease rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December 2025, with additional cuts expected in early 2026, bringing the terminal target range to 3.00–3.25% [17][44]. Euro Area - **Economic Growth**: Growth in the Euro area is expected to gain momentum, slightly exceeding potential growth in 2027, supported by solid consumption and supportive monetary policy. The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains stable at 52.2 [18][46]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is projected to undershoot the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, averaging 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, driven by a decline in energy prices and stable core goods inflation [45][46]. - **Monetary Policy**: The ECB is expected to implement two further rate cuts in March and June 2026, with current rates at 2% viewed as neutral [45][46]. Japan - **Economic Outlook**: Japan's economy is expected to return to growth in Q4 2025 after stalling in Q3. A rate hike to 0.75% is anticipated in December 2025, with inflation trends showing a potential dip below 2% in 1H 2026 [19][44]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its current stance through 2026, with further rate hikes contingent on confirming underlying price momentum [44]. China - **Economic Growth**: China's real GDP growth is tracking at 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, supported by a 10% tariff cut and additional stimulus. However, nominal GDP growth is expected to remain below 4% due to weakening consumption and investment [20][50]. - **Inflation**: The path out of deflation is expected to be gradual, with core price momentum capped by property sector drag and soft wage growth [50]. - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to implement incremental policy rate cuts to support fiscal measures, focusing on technology and infrastructure investment [50]. India - **Economic Growth**: India is projected to maintain strong growth at 6.5% in 2026 and 2027, driven by domestic demand and supportive policy measures. Real GDP growth reached 8.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [50]. - **Inflation**: Headline inflation is expected to edge up to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4% in 2026-27, with core inflation remaining stable [50]. - **Monetary Policy**: The RBI has lowered the policy rate to 5.25% and is expected to remain data-dependent moving forward [50]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Economic Outlook**: The overall global economic outlook for 2026 is characterized by a wide range of potential outcomes, with scenarios framed around disinflation and growth settling near potential levels [21][22]. - **Investment Trends**: There is a notable emphasis on AI-related investments, which are expected to drive growth in 2026 and 2027, highlighting the importance of technology in shaping economic recovery [42][22]. - **Sector-Specific Tariffs**: Legal challenges to tariffs may lead to a shift from country-specific to sector-specific tariffs, impacting corporate confidence and capital expenditure in Asia [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic outlook across major global markets.

Monetary Policy & Market Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the Federal Funds rate down to 350-375% [2] - The Federal Reserve will restart balance sheet expansion with $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys, signaling a return to quantitative easing (QE) [3] - QE is expected to push bond yields down, encouraging investors to move into riskier assets, making borrowing cheaper and boosting confidence across financial markets [7] - Historically, QE has inflated financial assets, potentially benefiting stocks, Bitcoin, digital assets, and real estate [8][12] - The US dollar is expected to weaken with QE, while short-term cash-like investments may become less attractive [10] Economic Outlook & Risks - Multiple deflationary forces, including AI, robotics, tariffs, and increased deportations, could challenge the Fed's monetary policy [6] - Despite rate cuts and QE, the housing market remains constrained by low supply and existing low-rate mortgages [23] - Treasury Secretary confirmed approximately $100-150 billion in tax refunds are expected in 2026, potentially boosting GDP growth [16][20] Housing Market Analysis - The housing market is described as "broken" due to high prices and affordability issues [21] - Deregulation at the local level to allow more housing construction is suggested as a solution to the housing shortage [27]

Joining us here at Post 9 is Guggenheim Partners investment management CIO Annne Walsh. Anne, it's great to have you here. Hi.>> What a treat. We haven't seen you in a while. So, how are you thinking about the the 2026 outlook after another strong year for the overall market.>> So, let's break it down into the economy and then market. So, 2026 looks like it's shaping up to be a year of what I refer to as equilibrium. Um, we're going to have, I think, um, on trend growth.So by trend growth is sort of you kno ...

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The Federal Reserve says they're fighting inflation. They say they are committed to a 2% target and that they're well positioned to wait and see.But the charts tell a very different story. While everyone is distracted by the quarter point rate cut and the drama of the dissenting votes, we're staring down the barrel of a massive liquidity injection in ...

QE is back.Cut rates. Print money.Assets go HIGHER. https://t.co/sFwCr1vde8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "wait and see" mode, indicating a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with no clear consensus among policymakers on future actions [2][4][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Fed's decision-making is characterized by a division of opinions among its members, with some advocating for more reductions while others prefer to hold [1][2]. - Chair Powell emphasized the complexity of the current economic situation, suggesting that differing views among governors are a natural outcome of analyzing ambiguous data [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The summary of economic projections is not a definitive forecast but rather a set of conditional statements reflecting individual policymakers' expectations based on potential economic developments [5][6]. - There is no strong consensus regarding the likelihood of a rate cut next year, with seven participants indicating no movement at all [7]. Group 3: External Economic Factors - Powell's comments on tariffs suggest a belief that their impact on inflation may be diminishing, although opinions vary among analysts [9][11]. - Regarding AI, there is an openness to the potential for a productivity boom, similar to the 1990s, which could influence future monetary policy [12][13]. Group 4: Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market is expected to weaken slightly, and if unemployment rises to around 4.6-4.7%, it could provide justification for a rate cut [15][16]. - A continued decrease in inflation would also be favorable for the Fed's decision-making process [16].