Simmons First National (SFNC 2.03%), a regional bank focused on retail and commercial banking services, reported its earnings on July 17, 2025. The big news: Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $0.44, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.39 (non-GAAP). However, revenue came in at $214.2 million, slightly below the $216.66 million consensus forecast (non-GAAP). The quarter showed progress in profitability, margin expansion, and efficiency, but also revealed a continued slow pace of growth and a gradual rise ...

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specifically and this is also the most common or most natural thing people are are thinking about here is it will improve forecasting and I think this is sort of where everybody's interested how are interest rates going how does the economy develop going forward how is inflation going forward so here we're going to see a lot already happening in terms of AI and I think here there's also a lot to learn going forward is it likely to make forecasting more accurate do you think I think definitely so I think one ...

17 July 2025 | 10:49PM EDT USA: Fed Governor Christopher Waller Reiterates Call for a July Cut BOTTOM LINE: At an event hosted by the Money Marketeers of NYU, Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued that the FOMC should cut 25bp at the July meeting, for three reasons. First, he expects tariffs to only provide a one-time price level boost and, as a result, believes that the corresponding pick-up in inflation can be "look[ed] through." Second, he cites below-potential GDP growth in 2025H1, an unemployment rate ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's average deposits grew at a healthy pace of 16% year-on-year, while average advances or assets under management (AUM) growth slowed to about 7% last year, aligning with strategic objectives to reduce the credit deposit (CD) ratio from 110% to about 95% [6][9] - The growth in AUM improved to 8% in the quarter ended June FY '26, with expectations for loan growth to continue improving [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's asset quality remains healthy, with a gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the retail segment, excluding agriculture, steady at 82 basis points [101][104] - The bank is seeing healthy demand from the rural side, with positive inquiries expected to increase due to better monsoon conditions [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's credit deposit ratio is currently at 95%, with a medium-term target to return to levels of 87-88% prior to the merger [92][93] - The bank's approach to growth is focused on customer-centricity, technology, and people, with expectations for loan growth to align with system growth rates in FY '26 and exceed it in FY '27 [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to improve its loan growth while maintaining a focus on reducing the CD ratio, with a strategic shift towards upselling products to existing customers [44][45] - The management emphasizes the importance of customer experience and technology initiatives to drive growth in various segments, including rural, MSME, and corporate [66][68] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledges a volatile global situation but remains optimistic about India's stable macro environment, supported by domestic factors such as normal monsoons and tax cuts [4][5] - The management expects a pickup in demand during the festive season, which could serve as a trigger for growth [20][24] Other Important Information - The bank announced an interim dividend of INR 5 per share and recommended a bonus share issue in a 1:1 ratio [10] - The bank's contingent provision increased to 57 basis points of the loan portfolio, aimed at providing resiliency and a strong reserving position for the future [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin and EDLR Repricing - The management explained that the full impact of recent rate changes on the EDLR book will take one to three months to fully reflect, with a current yield change of about 20 basis points [18][19] Question: Growth Triggers - Management indicated that improved consumption demand, especially during the festive season, is expected to trigger growth, with a focus on retail and rural segments [20][21] Question: Asset Quality and NPL Recognition - The management confirmed that any one-time settlements would typically lead to NPL recognition, following RBI regulations [35] Question: Credit Cost Outlook - The management noted that credit costs are expected to remain benign, with seasonal fluctuations due to agricultural portfolios [37] Question: Loan Growth and Fee Income - The management acknowledged subdued fee income this quarter but remains optimistic about the overall outlook for the year [82][83] Question: CD Ratio Comfort Zone - The management aims to return the CD ratio to 87-88% in the medium term, with a focus on ensuring deposit growth outpaces loan growth [92][93] Question: Contingent Provision Explanation - The management clarified that the contingent provision is based on various probability scenarios and is intended to strengthen the bank's reserving position [99]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Profit before tax, excluding treasury, grew by 11.4% year on year to INR 156.90 billion in Q1 FY '26 [4] - Core operating profit increased by 13.6% year on year to INR 175.05 billion [4] - Profit after tax grew by 15.5% year on year to INR 127.68 billion [4] - Total deposits grew by 12.8% year on year and were flat sequentially [4] - Average current and savings account deposits grew by 8.7% year on year and 3.9% sequentially [5] - Net interest income increased by 10.6% year on year to INR 216.35 billion [17] - Noninterest income, excluding treasury, grew by 13.7% year on year to INR 72.64 billion [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic loan portfolio grew by 12% year on year and 1.5% sequentially [5] - Retail loan portfolio grew by 6.9% year on year and 0.5% sequentially [5] - Business banking portfolio grew by 29.7% year on year and 3.7% sequentially [6] - Corporate portfolio grew by 7.5% year on year but declined by 1.4% sequentially [6] - Mortgage portfolio grew by 10.3% year on year and 1.9% sequentially [9] - Auto loans grew by 2.2% year on year but declined by 0.7% sequentially [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The net NPA ratio was 0.41% at 06/30/2025 compared to 0.43% at 06/30/2024 [7] - Total provisions during the quarter were INR 18.15 billion, or 10.4% of core operating profit [21] - Capital position remained strong with a CET1 ratio of 16.31% and total capital adequacy ratio of 16.97% [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus is on growing profit before tax through a customer-centric approach and enhancing delivery capabilities [3] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet, prudent provisioning, and healthy levels of capital while delivering sustainable returns [8] - The business banking segment is expected to grow faster than the overall loan book [52] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that global events have impacted sentiment but expect positive effects from monetary easing [34] - The company is focused on improving customer acquisition and becoming the primary banker for retail customers [56] - There is a cautious outlook on unsecured retail growth, with expectations for better performance in personal loans and credit cards [64] Other Important Information - The provisioning coverage ratio on non-performing loans was 75.3% at 06/30/2025 [7] - The combined ratio for ICICI General stood at 102.9% in Q1 FY '26 [25] - The profit after tax of ICICI Life was INR 3.02 billion in Q1 FY '26 compared to INR 2.25 billion in Q1 FY '25 [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on margins and growth - Management confirmed that the reported margin for Q4 would have been lower than reported due to the number of days in the quarter [33] - On growth, management indicated that global events have impacted sentiment but expect improvements due to monetary easing [34] Question: Corporate loan mix and business banking performance - The decline in high-rated corporate loans is attributed to demand and pricing factors, with a focus on maintaining a balanced risk-reward profile [49] - Business banking growth is driven by distribution, process, and technology improvements [51] Question: Cost of deposits and unsecured retail growth - The decline in cost of deposits was primarily due to savings account rate cuts and a reduction in wholesale deposits [59] - Management expressed confidence in improving growth in personal loans and credit cards moving forward [64] Question: Asset quality monitoring in business banking - Management stated that the business banking portfolio is closely monitored, with current credit behavior being benign [68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Profit before tax, excluding treasury, grew by 11.4% year on year to INR 156.90 billion in Q1 FY '26 [4] - Core operating profit increased by 13.6% year on year to INR 175.05 billion [4] - Profit after tax grew by 15.5% year on year to INR 127.68 billion [4] - Total deposits grew by 12.8% year on year and were flat sequentially [4] - Average current and savings account deposits grew by 8.7% year on year and 3.9% sequentially [5] - Net interest income increased by 10.6% year on year to INR 216.35 billion [17][18] - Noninterest income, excluding treasury, grew by 13.7% year on year to INR 72.64 billion [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic loan portfolio grew by 12% year on year and 1.5% sequentially [5] - Retail loan portfolio grew by 6.9% year on year and 0.5% sequentially [5] - Business banking portfolio grew by 29.7% year on year and 3.7% sequentially [6] - Corporate portfolio grew by 7.5% year on year but declined by 1.4% sequentially [6] - Mortgage portfolio grew by 10.3% year on year and 1.9% sequentially [9] - Auto loans grew by 2.2% year on year but declined by 0.7% sequentially [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The net NPA ratio was 0.41% at 06/30/2025 compared to 0.43% at 06/30/2024 [7] - The provisioning coverage ratio on non-performing loans was 75.3% at 06/30/2025 [7] - The capital position remained strong with a CET1 ratio of 16.31% and total capital adequacy ratio of 16.97% [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus is on growing profit before tax through a customer-centric approach and enhancing delivery capabilities [3] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet, prudent provisioning, and healthy levels of capital while delivering sustainable returns [8] - The business banking segment is expected to grow faster than the overall loan book, indicating a focus on this area for future growth [54] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that global events have impacted sentiment but expects positive effects from monetary easing [35] - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities and aims to drive risk-calibrated profitable growth [8] - Management indicated that the current credit environment is benign, with negligible credit costs [67] Other Important Information - The total provisions during the quarter were INR 18.15 billion, which is 10.4% of core operating profit [23] - The profit after tax of ICICI Life was INR 3.02 billion in Q1 FY '26 compared to INR 2.25 billion in Q1 FY '25 [26] - The combined ratio for ICICI General stood at 102.9% in Q1 FY '26 compared to 102.3% in Q1 FY '25 [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin assessment and growth outlook - The reported margin for Q4 would have been lower than 4.41% when adjusted for the new method, and growth is expected to stabilize after a quarter [34][35] Question: Corporate loan mix and business banking performance - The decline in high-rated corporate loans is due to demand and pricing factors, while business banking growth is attributed to distribution and technology improvements [51][54] Question: Deposit behavior and competition - The company does not foresee significant changes in competitive scenarios despite rate cuts, focusing on customer acquisition and maintaining market share [56] Question: Unsecured retail growth and asset quality management - The company is optimistic about growth in personal loans and credit cards, with a focus on maintaining asset quality through continuous monitoring [64][67]