Core Insights - India's currency market is under significant pressure, with the rupee hitting an all-time low against the U.S. dollar just before Republic Day 2026, raising concerns about the equity market and ETFs holding Indian equities [1][3] - The MSCI India Index has underperformed, rising only 2.2% in U.S. dollar terms in 2025, compared to a 29.9% increase in MSCI Emerging Markets [2] - The rupee's depreciation presents a paradox for ETF investors, as it may attract foreign investment but also increases volatility and risk [4] Economic Context - The decline of the rupee is attributed to massive capital outflows, with nearly $18 billion withdrawn from Indian equities in 2025, and an additional $846 million in early 2026 as investors sought safer assets [7] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S.-India trade negotiations and global market uncertainties, have negatively impacted investor sentiment [8] - India's trade deficit has widened to over $25 billion, driven by rising energy and electronics import costs, further pressuring the rupee [9] Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook for the rupee in 2026, warning of potential further declines if geopolitical tensions persist or if the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates [10] - Despite currency struggles, the IMF has upgraded India's 2026 growth outlook to 6.4%, indicating strong underlying economic productivity [12] ETF Performance - The WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) has total assets of $2.58 billion and has risen 2.4% over the past year, with top holdings including Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank [14] - The Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN), with assets of $2.75 billion, has also gained 2.4% over the past year, focusing on large and mid-cap companies [15] - The First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF (NFTY) has total assets of $160.9 million and has risen 3.5% over the past year, providing exposure to the largest Indian securities [16]

Market Overview - The combined market valuation of nine of the top-10 most valued firms decreased by ₹2.51 lakh crore last week, with Reliance Industries experiencing the largest decline [1][2] - The BSE benchmark Sensex fell by 2,032.65 points or 2.43 percent during the same period [1] Company-Specific Valuations - Reliance Industries' market valuation dropped by ₹96,960.17 crore to ₹18,75,533.04 crore [3] - ICICI Bank's valuation decreased by ₹48,644.99 crore to ₹9,60,825.29 crore [3] - HDFC Bank's market cap fell by ₹22,923.02 crore to ₹14,09,611.89 crore [3] - Bharti Airtel's valuation diminished by ₹17,533.97 crore to ₹11,32,010.46 crore [3] - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) saw a decline of ₹16,588.93 crore to ₹11,43,623.19 crore [3] - Larsen & Toubro's market cap decreased by ₹15,248.32 crore to ₹5,15,161.91 crore [3] - Bajaj Finance's valuation fell by ₹14,093.93 crore to ₹5,77,353.23 crore [4] - State Bank of India's market cap edged lower by ₹11,907.5 crore to ₹9,50,199.77 crore [4] - Infosys' valuation dived by ₹7,810.77 crore to ₹6,94,078.82 crore [4] - Hindustan Unilever's market cap increased by ₹12,311.86 crore to ₹5,66,733.16 crore [4] Market Sentiment - The market sell-off was attributed to weak global cues, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, a depreciating rupee, and subdued corporate earnings [2][5] - Escalating geopolitical tensions and aggressive FII selling contributed to the market correction [5]

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1月20日，张宏宇参赞衔领事陪同秦杰总领事走访ICICI银行孟买总部，与跨国客户部主管桑托什.派 (Sontosh Pai)等一行举行会谈。冀雪翠领事随行。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the Asia Value & Moat Stocks research service, which targets value investors looking for Asia-listed stocks with significant discrepancies between price and intrinsic value, focusing on deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks [1][2] - The recent 3QFY2026 disclosures revealed both positive and negative aspects, with a disappointing net profit that fell below expectations, although credit and leadership-related risks have been mitigated [1] Group 2 - The Value Pendulum is highlighted as a specialist in the Asian equity market, with over a decade of experience on both buy and sell sides, focusing on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market [2]

Core Insights - ICICI Bank Ltd. reported a profit after tax of INR113.2 billion ($1.3 billion) for Q3 FY26, reflecting a 4% decline year over year due to increased provisions, higher operating expenses, and treasury losses, despite growth in net interest income and solid loan growth [1][9] Financial Performance - Net interest income (NII) increased by 7.7% year over year to INR219.3 billion ($2.4 billion), with a net interest margin of 4.30%, up 5 basis points [2] - Non-interest income (excluding treasury) rose to INR75.3 billion ($837 million), marking a 12.4% year-over-year growth, while fee income grew by 6.3% to INR65.7 billion ($731 million) [2] - Operating expenses reached INR119.4 billion ($1.3 billion), up 13.2% year over year [3] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of December 31, 2025, total advances were INR14,661.5 billion ($163.1 billion), a sequential increase of 4.1%, driven by growth in domestic, retail, rural, business banking, and corporate loans [4] - Total deposits amounted to INR16,596.1 billion ($184.6 billion), reflecting a 3.2% increase from the previous quarter [4] Credit Quality - The net non-performing assets (NPA) ratio improved to 0.37%, down from 0.42% in the prior year, with recoveries and upgrades of NPAs totaling INR32.8 billion ($365 million) [5] - There were net additions of INR20.7 billion ($231 million) to gross NPA, with gross NPA additions at INR53.6 billion ($596 million) and write-offs of INR20.5 billion ($228 million) [5] Provisions and Capital Ratios - Provisions (excluding tax) increased to INR25.6 billion ($285 million) compared to INR12.3 billion ($136.8 million) in the prior-year quarter [6] - ICICI Bank's total capital adequacy ratio was 17.34%, with a Tier-1 capital adequacy of 16.46%, both exceeding minimum requirements set by the Reserve Bank of India [7]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directive relates to a portfolio of agricultural priority sector credit facilities, with no change in asset classification or borrower terms [1] - ICICI Bank reported a profit before tax excluding treasury of INR 149.57 billion, a decrease from INR 152.89 billion year-over-year, and profit after tax of INR 113.18 billion, down from INR 117.92 billion [1] - Core operating profit increased by 6% year-over-year to INR 175.13 billion, with total provisions for the quarter at INR 25.56 billion, including an additional standard asset provision of INR 12.83 billion [2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted profit before tax excluding treasury would have risen approximately 6.2% year-over-year to INR 162.40 billion, and profit after tax would have increased 4.1% year-over-year to INR 122.80 billion [5][6] - Net interest income rose 7.7% year-over-year to INR 219.32 billion, with a net interest margin of 4.3% [13] - Non-interest income excluding treasury increased 12.4% year-over-year to INR 75.25 billion, with fee income rising 6.3% year-over-year to INR 65.72 billion [15] Credit Quality and Provisions - The net NPA ratio was reported at 0.37%, with provisioning coverage at 75.4% and contingency provisions of INR 131 billion [4][17] - Gross NPA additions were INR 53.56 billion, down from INR 60.85 billion a year earlier, with recoveries and upgrades amounting to INR 32.82 billion [18] - Management noted that the outstanding loans to non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) were INR 791.18 billion, representing about 4.3% of advances [20] Growth Metrics - Average deposits grew 8.7% year-over-year, with total deposits up 9.2% year-over-year [7] - Domestic loan portfolio grew 11.5% year-over-year, with retail loans increasing 7.2% and business banking loans growing 22.8% [9] - The bank's capital ratios remained strong, with a CET1 ratio of 16.46% and total capital adequacy ratio of 17.34% [21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core operating profit increased by 6% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter to INR 175.13 billion [2] - Profit before tax, excluding treasury, was INR 149.57 billion, down from INR 152.89 billion in Q3 of the previous year [3] - Profit after tax decreased to INR 113.18 billion from INR 117.92 billion in Q3 of last year [3] - Average deposits grew by 8.7% year-on-year and 1.8% sequentially [3] - Total provisions during the quarter were INR 25.56 billion, including an additional standard asset provision of INR 12.83 billion [3][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic loan portfolio grew by 11.5% year-on-year and 4% sequentially [4] - Retail loan portfolio grew by 7.2% year-on-year and 1.9% sequentially, with the rural portfolio growing by 4.9% year-on-year [4] - Business banking portfolio grew by 22.8% year-on-year and 4.7% sequentially [4] - Credit card portfolio declined by 3.5% year-on-year and 6.7% sequentially due to high festive spends in the previous quarter [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average LCR for the quarter was about 126% [4][6] - Net NPA ratio improved to 0.37% from 0.39% in the previous quarter [4] - Gross NPA additions were INR 53.56 billion, down from INR 60.85 billion in Q3 of last year [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus remains on growing profit before tax through a customer-centric approach and enhancing delivery capabilities [2] - The bank aims to maintain a strong balance sheet, prudent provisioning, and healthy capital levels while delivering sustainable returns to shareholders [6] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management sees many opportunities for risk-calibrated, profitable growth and aims to grow market shares across key segments [6] - The bank is focused on bringing the agricultural priority sector credit portfolio into conformity with regulatory expectations [7] - Management expects net interest margins to remain range-bound, with some deposit repricing expected [27] Other Important Information - The capital position remains strong with a CET1 ratio of 16.46% and total capital adequacy ratio of 17.34% [6] - Operating expenses increased by 13.2% year-on-year, influenced by new labor code provisions [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the size of the portfolio on which standard asset provisions were made? - The underlying portfolio is between INR 200-250 billion, and the bank will work to bring it into conformity with regulatory expectations [26] Question: How do you view margins from here on? - Margins are expected to remain steady, with some deposit repricing anticipated [27] Question: Is there any additional PSL cost due to the declassification of agri loans? - The cost of PSL compliance has been increasing, but no specific additional costs are expected from this regulatory observation [33] Question: What is the outlook for credit card growth? - The decline in the credit card portfolio is attributed to high festive spending in the previous quarter, but growth is expected to improve [35] Question: How is the business banking growth outlook? - Business banking growth is strong, with a year-on-year growth of 22%, and the bank is not holding back on this segment [55] Question: What is the thought process behind the two-year extension for the CEO? - The board decided on a two-year appointment, which is almost three years until the end of the renewed term [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core operating profit increased by 6% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter to INR 175.13 billion [2] - Profit before tax, excluding treasury, was INR 149.57 billion, down from INR 152.89 billion in Q3 of the previous year [3] - Profit after tax decreased to INR 113.18 billion from INR 117.92 billion in Q3 of last year [3] - Average deposits grew by 8.7% year-on-year and 1.8% sequentially [3] - Total provisions during the quarter were INR 25.56 billion, including an additional standard asset provision of INR 12.83 billion [3][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic loan portfolio grew by 11.5% year-on-year and 4% sequentially [4] - Retail loan portfolio grew by 7.2% year-on-year and 1.9% sequentially, with the rural portfolio growing by 4.9% year-on-year [4] - Business banking portfolio grew by 22.8% year-on-year and 4.7% sequentially [4] - Corporate portfolio grew by 5.6% year-on-year and 6.5% sequentially [4] - Credit card portfolio declined by 3.5% year-on-year and 6.7% sequentially [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average LCR for the quarter was about 126% [3][6] - Net NPA ratio improved to 0.37% from 0.39% in the previous quarter [4] - Provisioning coverage ratio on non-performing loans was 75.4% [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus remains on growing profit before tax through a customer-centric approach and enhancing delivery capabilities [2] - The bank aims to maintain a strong balance sheet, prudent provisioning, and healthy capital levels while delivering sustainable returns to shareholders [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management sees many opportunities for risk-calibrated, profitable growth and aims to grow market shares across key segments [6] - The bank is focused on bringing the agricultural priority sector credit portfolio into conformity with regulatory expectations [7] - Management expects net interest margins to remain range-bound, with some deposit repricing still possible [27] Other Important Information - The bank's operating expenses increased by 13.2% year-on-year, influenced by new labor code provisions [16] - Dividend income from subsidiaries was INR 6.81 billion, compared to INR 5.09 billion in Q3 of last year [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the size of the portfolio on which standard asset provisions were made? - The underlying portfolio is between INR 200-250 billion, and the bank will work to bring it into conformity with regulatory expectations [26] Question: How do you view margins from here on? - Margins are expected to remain steady, with some deposit repricing and the impact of repo rate cuts [27] Question: Is there any additional PSL cost due to the declassification of agri loans? - The cost of PSL compliance has been increasing, but no specific additional costs are expected at this time [33] Question: What is the outlook for credit card growth? - The decline in the credit card portfolio is seen as a one-off, and growth is expected to improve moving forward [35] Question: How is the bank managing operating expenses? - The bank aims to maximize profit before provisions and does not expect costs to rise at the same pace as before [50]