Core Insights - The interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan has dropped to its lowest level in a year, prompting homeowners to seek cheaper borrowing costs as job growth slows and expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut increase [1][2] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a significant rise in mortgage applications, particularly for refinancing, indicating a strong response to the lower rates [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased by 10 basis points to 6.39%, the lowest since early October 2024, and down nearly 0.75 percentage points since mid-January [1][2] - The MBA's weekly applications index rose by 29.7% to 386.1, the highest level since April 2022, with 60% of applications for refinancing [2] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - High borrowing costs and elevated property prices have negatively impacted the labor market, with the Federal Reserve maintaining steady short-term borrowing costs due to concerns over inflation from tariffs [3] - Recent labor market data indicates a sharp slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, leading to a decrease in yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which in turn has influenced home loan rates [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling readiness to ease monetary policy, with expectations for a quarter-point interest-rate cut at the upcoming meeting [5] - Concerns about inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target may lead to cautious rate cuts, despite pressure from President Trump for more aggressive reductions to stimulate the housing market [6]

Interest Rate & Currency - Bank Indonesia's surprise interest rate cut may put pressure on the rupiah [1] - A likely weaker dollar may limit further downside of the rupiah [1] Analyst Perspective - Analysts believe a weaker dollar may limit further downside of the rupiah despite the interest rate cut [1]

Bank Indonesia delivered another surprise interest rate cut, defying recent rupiah weakness to bolster the economy following violent protests over unemployment and low wages https://t.co/1uD8aSdl4U ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, highlighting a surprising increase in short positions despite expectations of a new interest rate cut cycle [2][7][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of the last report, net long positions in U.S. precious metal futures, except for palladium and copper, have decreased across the board, which was unexpected given the anticipated interest rate cuts [2][7]. - The market now estimates an 85% chance of a rate cut in October, up from 79%, and a 75% chance in December, indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year [2][26]. - The article notes that the gold price has increased by 38.1% year-to-date, while fund long positions have only increased by 1.7% during the same period, suggesting limited bullish sentiment [7][8]. Group 2: Fund Position Changes - The net long position for COMEX gold fell by 1.5% to 518 tons, marking the 101st consecutive week of net long positions, but significantly lower than the historical peak of 908 tons in September 2019 [7][8]. - In silver, net long positions dropped from 6,380 tons to 5,874 tons, with a 41.5% increase in silver prices year-to-date [8][10]. - Platinum funds saw a significant drop in long positions by 17%, while palladium remains in a net short position for 139 weeks, indicating a bearish outlook for this metal [8][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The article highlights the potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, suggesting that if inflation pressures rise again, the Federal Reserve may face challenges in its monetary policy [26][28]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has dropped significantly, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold itself, which may signal caution for investors [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-silver ratio as a market sentiment indicator, which currently stands at 86.38, reflecting a slight decline [22].

All signs point to a cut. Are you buying or selling the news 👀History doesn't repeat, but often rhymes. https://t.co/fMx0oNcK99 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent decline in the US dollar index has provided additional support for gold prices, with gold reaching a high of over $3700 before a slight pullback [1][3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, marking its lowest level since July 1, which has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus increasing global demand [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have intensified, with traders almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting, and a small portion betting on a 50 basis point cut [3][4] Group 2 - In a low-interest-rate environment, the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset has significantly increased, as a rate cut would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The primary driver of the recent rise in gold prices is the market's pricing of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite ongoing support from safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [4] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may experience a slow upward trend, with key support levels identified at 3685 and 3675, and potential targets around 3710 [5]

now and get to Peter Tuckman who is the senior floor broker at Trademass. Thank you so much for joining us. Absolute pleasure.I'm glad to be here. All right, so we did start off with a record highs and then we sort of erased those gains and we're on the back foot as we closed out the session ahead of this very important meeting tomorrow. What happened.Just a bit of money coming off sitting on sidelines. Yeah, it was kind of drifted just in the absence of the gas on the pedal, it's just going to pull back a ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve meeting is ongoing, with Lisa Cook participating despite potential legal challenges, and her views on monetary policy are expected to align closely with Fed Chair Jay Powell's stance on interest rates [1][2][5]. Group 1: Lisa Cook's Role and Perspectives - Lisa Cook is confirmed to be at the Fed meeting, and her historical tendency has been to side with the chair, indicating a dovish approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - It is anticipated that Cook will support a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting her alignment with Powell's views [5]. - Cook has expressed concerns about the labor market's health, noting a rise in unemployment and a slowdown in hiring, although she has not provided extensive commentary on the subject [6][7]. Group 2: Steven Byron's Influence - Steven Byron's presence at the meeting is viewed as a potential wildcard, with speculation that he may dissent if the Fed opts for a 25 basis point cut, advocating instead for a 50 basis point reduction [8][9]. - Byron's dual role as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers while participating in the Fed meeting raises questions about his independence and the potential for conflicts of interest [9][10]. Group 3: Independence and Interactions - The independence of Fed members is under scrutiny, particularly regarding the interactions between Fed officials and the White House, especially with Byron's connections to the Trump administration [15][16]. - Historically, Fed chairs have maintained a distance from the executive branch, with limited direct communication with presidents [17]. - Concerns about the revolving door between the Fed and the White House have been highlighted, with examples of past officials transitioning between roles [18].

as we're about the midpoint of the day, but we have this very important Fed meeting. We all think we know what's going to happen. Jim, you and I were just talking before the show about the backdrop, about where we're sitting.Um, sort of frame it up for us. I think we all know what we think is going to happen from the meeting. What.Well, you know, we have a Fed chair and a Fed open market committee that doesn't like surprises. So, I think the 25 basis points is is probably baked in at this point in time. It ...

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first interest rate cut this year on Wednesday despite signs of tariffs pushing inflation higher amid rising concerns about the labor market. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are expected to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first since December 2024, which would lower the target range to 4% to 4.25%.Markets have priced in a cut, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 4% ...