Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The interplay of policy uncertainty and business cycle dynamics is crucial, with significant influences from US policy shifts in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory domains affecting market sentiment [9]. - The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the global macroeconomic landscape are expected to persist in the second half of 2025, with various potential scenarios outlined for market performance [12][15]. - A US recession is not the baseline scenario, but risks remain elevated, with a potential for 100 basis points of Fed cuts between December 2025 and spring 2026 [15][24]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The substantial shift in US trade policy has led to a forecasted downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures towards the US, with recession risks placed at 40% [17]. - The US GDP growth outlook has been revised down from 2.0% to 1.3% for the year, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 4.6% in Q3 and 3.4% by year-end [21]. Equities - The outlook for US equities suggests narrow market leadership and high concentration, with a potential for new highs absent major policy or geopolitical surprises [25][26]. - International equities are expected to trade favorably, with a rotation into international markets likely to continue, supported by USD weakness [26][27]. Rates - Long-end yields are expected to remain stable, with a forecast for 2-year and 10-year yields to end the year at 3.50% and 4.35%, respectively [30][31]. - The Treasury market's rapid growth has outstripped demand, leading to a potential increase in term premium over time [30]. Credit - High-grade credit remains supported by high yields and good corporate earnings, with spreads expected to remain tight [35][36]. - High-yield bond spreads are forecasted to widen by about 100 basis points to 450 basis points by year-end 2025, with a default rate expected to rise to 2.75% in 2026 [38][39]. Commodities - Oil prices are anticipated to trade in the low-to-mid $60 range for the remainder of 2025, with geopolitical tensions potentially causing short-term spikes [43][44]. - Gold prices are projected to reach an average of $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, supported by strong demand amid economic uncertainties [45].

Roughly four in 10 millennials and Gen Zers have side jobs, according to new research by Deloitte. These groups lived through two recessions—and may be scarred by bad memories of those experiences.Read more: https://t.co/jvpwX8RVto https://t.co/42Wz9ld7mK ...

Economists say a recession is an unlikely in the second half of 2025, but not out of the question if President Donald Trump's tariffs hit harder than expected or war engulfs the Middle East. https://t.co/vV4durSd2h ...

Market Overview - Despite rising geopolitical tensions and a significant likelihood of a U.S. recession, investors are showing resilience in the stock market, which has experienced volatility but remains stable [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1] - He has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, with his articles reaching popular trading platforms like Robinhood [1]

Sizemore Capital Management's chief investment officer, Charles Sizemore, joins Market Domination with Josh Lipton to share his hesitation with the current state of the market and what it means for investors. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here: https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/market-domination/ #youtube #stocks #investing About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management ...

So, is the market sending an all clear signal on the economy and the policy path ahead. Or is it time again to start looking out for what might trip things up. Let's ask Black Rockck's Rick Reer.He's CIO of Global Fixed Income and head of the global allocation team there. Rick, great to have you. Good to see you.Yeah, appreciate it. What's your read on uh on what we're getting from the markets here in ter I mean it feels like this is how the markets trade when kind of soft landing risk has been mitigated an ...

We're going to begin with one of the biggest issues for companies this year. That's tariffs. We're going to share some of the strongest opinions when it comes to that.41% strongly agree that tariffs will directly cost their company more. 52% say tariffs will impact suppliers and indirectly raise their cost. 10% agree somewhat the tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the US. Then we have 66% that that disagree either strongly or disagree somewhat that tariffs will help the US economy.Of course, tariffs a ...

Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sausnik and Invesco global market strategist Brian Levit both joined me here on set. What a treat to have you here in the studio with me. Um Steve, I'm going to start with you.Have you been surprised by the market moves we've we've seen this week, especially given the geopolitical backdrop. Yes and no. I mean, we didn't really react negatively to the geopolitics, Morgan, but we but we seem so sort of more of a speed bump than a than a than a real reason to sell off ...

Powell: The U.S. is not in a recession #yahoofinance #finance #news #youtubeshorts #youtube #shorts #shortsvideo #investingforbeginners #investing #stockmarket #stocks #powell #federalreserve #jeromepowell #recession #fed ...

So, one of the very valid criticisms of the Federal Reserve, where I worked for nearly a decade, is that they're looking at very lagged data that really is backward-looking as opposed to trying to pay closer attention to some of the especially rich realtime economic data that we have in hand right now. Unfortunately, it feels like the Fed is pretty much what we call behind the curve. So, they should be lowering interest rates and yet because they're driving using the rearview mirror, they're late to the gam ...