RT Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive)Bitcoin is volatile.It’s also the fastest horse in the race. https://t.co/rxeso24bVK ...

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - China is using the U_S_ stock market as a negotiation tactic in trade discussions with the U_S_, leveraging Trump's focus on market performance as a measure of his presidency's success [1] - Uncertainty created by delaying negotiations hurts markets, pressuring Trump to make deals that benefit both the U_S_ and China [1][2] - U_S_ midterm elections in April next year add pressure, as stock market performance influences voter sentiment and impacts Trump's strong economy narrative [2][3] Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is hinting at potential rate cuts of 25bps or even 50bps, and signaling the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) [3] - The Treasury Secretary indicates readiness to take actions to stabilize the economy, implying increased liquidity [4] - Increased volatility is expected in the short term, followed by increased liquidity injections into the market [5] Crypto Market Analysis - Crypto assets are reacting to liquidity flows resulting from policy responses, not just tariffs or headlines [5] - Favorable conditions are emerging, including potential rate cuts, the end of QT, softening inflation data, and rising political pressure, similar to conditions preceding major rallies in 2019, 2020, and 2023 [5][6] - Crypto is now a recognized institutional asset class, integrated into the global liquidity narrative, potentially extending the current cycle beyond the typical November/December peak [6][7] - The current market volatility is viewed as a reset before the next phase of the bull market, driven by pressure leading to policy responses, liquidity injections, and subsequent expansion [7][8]

Market Trends & Retail Investor Behavior - Demand for call options has outpaced puts for 24 consecutive weeks, tying the longest streak ever recorded since 2020, indicating strong conviction among retail traders [1] - JP Morgan's retail radar shows robust imbalance with inflows exceeding outflows by 65 billion, surpassing the year-to-date average of 64% [3] - Crypto markets experienced a significant sell-off, reflecting risk appetite shifts, with recovery not fully realized, indicating a heat check mechanism [9][10][13] Investment Strategies & Portfolio Adjustments - Some investors derisked through the middle of the summer, trimming ETF baskets due to anticipated seasonal headwinds and potential Fed rate cut uncertainties [4][5] - Increased allocation to SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and IJR (small-cap ETF) after a market sell-off, viewing it as an opportunity to fully allocate ETF slices in portfolios [4][6][7][9] - Some firms trimmed positions in Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet due to their large size in portfolios (approaching 85%-9%), aiming to reduce risk amid expectations of slowing earnings growth [14][15][16] - Proceeds from selling positions were reinvested into other names, maintaining market exposure [17] Market Valuation & Economic Factors - The market rebounded on Monday after Friday's sell-off, influenced by reassurances regarding the trade war with China [9] - Relative valuations of the MAG 7 stocks are considered to be in the middle of their range over the last decade, suggesting they are not necessarily overvalued [8] - Fed Chair Powell's discussion of an endgame to quantitative tightening (QT) influenced market response, particularly in the Russell 2000 [7] Liquidity & Risk Pricing - The speed at which risk is priced and repriced has accelerated, with cycles that used to take weeks or months now occurring in a matter of hours [11] - Some firms still have 85% of cash to deploy in main portfolios, indicating a cautious approach and potential for further investment [12][13]

Investment Strategy & Risk Management - Investment strategies should be tailored to individual goals and life circumstances, as a one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable [3] - Sticking to a well-defined investment plan is crucial, despite market volatility and inevitable downturns [3] - Panic selling during market downturns can lock in losses and prevent participation in subsequent recoveries [4][5][6] - Market crashes can present opportunities to buy stocks, as evidenced by insider buying activity during financial crises [7] - A long-term mindset, focusing on the fundamental value of companies, is essential for navigating market volatility [8][9] - Building a margin of safety into stock purchases allows for error and provides a buffer against market fluctuations [9][10] Investment Timing & Dollar Cost Averaging - Timing the market is less important than the investments themselves; even investing at the worst times can outperform not investing at all in the long run [10][11] - Dollar cost averaging, involving regular investments regardless of market conditions, is an effective long-term strategy [11]

Since the 1st of July, we've started our liquid fund, @MNFund_.A completely different strategy than our #Altcoin portfolio.Way more active, and leveraging the volatility of the markets.But how?Watch the update here:https://t.co/IqkA0ETUUs ...

Market Volatility & Liquidation - Crypto market experienced meltdowns, with Bitcoin's market cap previously at 1200 billion USD rising to 2200 billion USD, and the overall crypto market cap increasing from 2300 billion USD to 4300 billion USD [1] - Bitcoin liquidations of 6 billion USD represent 60 basis points, and overall crypto liquidations of 19 billion USD represent 44 basis points [1] Decoupling & Market Dynamics - Complete decoupling of crypto markets from macro headwinds is unlikely; panic tends to affect all assets [1] - Crypto markets resemble commodity markets with potentially deep liquidity but concentrated market makers, who may reduce activity during times of fear [1] Institutional Perspective & Tokenization - Institutions are realizing tokenization is a better system for transferring and recording value, with major exchanges exploring tokenized trading systems [1] - Retail exposure to tokenization has largely come through memecoins, which, despite being frivolous, have proven the resiliency of the infrastructure [2] - Memecoins, transferring billions of dollars peer-to-peer, demonstrate the 999999% uptime needed to operate an exchange, proving the infrastructure's resilience [2] Adoption & Infrastructure - Critical infrastructure systems like Bitcoin and blockchain have been tested for almost 10 years, with institutional-scale testing for 3-4 years, leading to serious consideration by CIOs, CTOs, and business leaders [2][3] - Transitioning modern financial markets to this infrastructure is estimated to take a decade, with the process already 30-40% complete [4]

Escalating trade tensions between the US and China are spurring yuan traders to prepare for greater volatility lasting into early 2026 https://t.co/HduvHqIEcH ...

[Music] Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into.Stocks giving back most of their gains Wednesday before ticking up again as volatility continued to engulf Wall Street. At the end of the session, stocks did close the day mixed. Bickering in W ...

Market Volatility and Positioning - A 3% pullback followed an unusually calm climb to all-time highs, with the market trading indecisively within that range [2] - Friday's market activity revealed built-up leverage in areas like Bitcoin and speculative high beta stocks [3] - Overall positioning is at the 74th percentile, suggesting a potential continuation of the positioning chase [3] - The VIX holding above 20 could indicate an overreaction to a short-term move or bracing for something else [6] Earnings and Economic Factors - Strong earnings and rising earnings estimates, coupled with abundant liquidity, support a potential drift higher, though not necessarily in a straight line [4][5] - The market's reaction to new headlines hinges on whether they challenge the current earnings consensus [7] - The rule of thumb is that if the 12-month forward earning estimate continues to make new highs, the S&P 500 will likely follow [8] Sector Performance and Market Leadership - A K-shaped dynamic exists within the equity market, with AI names and banks driving earnings revisions higher [9][10] - Small caps have risen 45% since liberation day, but earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been cut by 10%, indicating a rally not based on fundamentals [11] - The appetite for risk in junk bonds and high beta stocks suggests abundant liquidity, and a fade in these areas could usher in a new leadership phase [12] - Quality is expected to win out over the long-term cycle, with low-quality rallies typically reversing [12] AI and Future Growth - The market may be concerned about the slowing capex growth rate in 2026 and its impact on extrapolating huge earnings growth for AI players [15][16] - The question is whether the market will care about the slowing second derivative of capex growth and reassess the trajectory of earnings growth for these players [16]

In a way, You know, in some sense, you know, it's also a correction. But insofar as volatility is concerned, without going into levels, are we in the Reserve Bank. We do not.You know, as I mentioned earlier, we do not you know, our stated policy is not to target any price level or any price band and let you know the markets actually in India are quite deep, quite wide and we have a very robust and a mature market. So we believe in you know, the markets are to decide, you know, what the level should be. We d ...