Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY from Sallie Mae Bank for a 15-month CD and LendingClub Bank for an 8-month CD [2] - CDs generally provide higher rates than traditional savings accounts, making them an attractive option for savers [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates dropping to about 0.1% APY for 6-month CDs by 2013 due to the Fed's near-zero interest rate policy [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed has started cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a gradual decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but current trends show the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation considerations [9]

Central Banks' Rate Cuts - Major central banks have implemented interest rate cuts in 2025 at the fastest pace and largest scale since the financial crisis, with significant easing also observed in developing nations [1][2] - Nine central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies lowered their benchmark lending rates, delivering a total of 850 basis points across 32 rate reductions, marking the largest number of cuts since 2008 and the most extensive easing since 2009 [2] Change in Monetary Policy Tone - There has been a notable shift in monetary policy tone ahead of 2026, contrasting sharply with the rate hikes seen in 2022 and 2023 aimed at combating inflation due to rising energy prices [3] - Analysts suggest that 2026 may see a change in direction, with expectations of potential rate hikes from several G10 central banks, particularly Canada and Australia [3][4] Emerging Markets' Rate Cuts - In December, eight central banks from a sample of 18 developing economies delivered 350 basis points of cuts, contributing to a total of 3,085 basis points of easing across 51 moves in 2025, significantly surpassing the 2,160 basis points in 2024 [6]

Currency markets are not always sensitive to inflation itself. What they care about is what inflation signals — about growth, policy, credibility, governance, and perhaps most of all, predictability.By now, the mix is familiar — uneven goods inflation, tariffs doing their work in the background, stubbornly high rents and housing costs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly pointed to trade policy as a contributor to inflation overshoots, while emphasizing that officials need clearer evidence before conclud ...

Group 1 - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to perform well next year due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts and pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Stubborn inflation may lead policymakers to maintain tighter monetary conditions for a longer period, which could favor certain sectors [1] Group 2 - The analyst has extensive experience in investment research, covering publicly listed securities primarily in the tech sector [1] - The analyst's investment journey began with mutual funds and evolved to individual stocks and ETFs, emphasizing a focus on capital preservation strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the multifaceted identity of the blogger known as Ironman, who operates on the Political Calculations site, focusing on investing, business, and economics [1] Group 1 - Ironman is described as potentially having multiple professional roles, including engineer, researcher, analyst, rocket scientist, editor, and teacher [1] - The article suggests that Ironman may not be a single individual, leaving it to readers to determine the true identity behind the posts and comments [1]

Inflation Overview - Singapore's inflation in November remained steady at 1.2%, missing estimates of 1.3%, as higher service prices were offset by a decline in electricity costs [1] - Core inflation also came in at 1.2%, compared to expectations of 1.3% [1] Economic Performance - Non-oil exports surged 11.6% year on year in November, exceeding estimates of a 7% rise [2] - Singapore's economy grew at 4.2% in the third quarter, beating expectations of 4% expansion [2] GDP Forecast - The ministry of trade and industry upgraded the full-year GDP forecast to "around 4%" and projected 1%-3% growth for 2026, a significant revision from earlier warnings of potential zero growth [3] - The trade ministry noted that the global environment has proven more resilient than anticipated, with strong manufacturing and export demand in the third quarter [3] Monetary Policy - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its monetary policy steady for the last two meetings after easing it in January and April due to global economic threats [4]

December 22, 2025 12:59 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Fed speak: The policy rate should head lower. The question is when and by how much Fed speakers last week generally agreed that the funds rate will move lower. Governors Waller and Miran made clear cases for near-term rate cuts while Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee saw a need to ensure inflation was on a path to 2%. President Williams had a preference to wait for clearer data. Key Takeaways | M Fed speak: The policy rate | Chief US Econom ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its key interest rate steady during the upcoming meeting on January 27 and 28 after a series of recent cuts aimed at addressing job market concerns [1][9]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee will consider whether to cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2]. - Recent cuts of a quarter percentage point at the last three meetings were intended to prevent a slowdown in the job market from escalating into higher unemployment [2][9]. - Fed officials are divided on whether to cut rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, which has been above the target of 2% since 2021 [3][9]. Economic Implications - The current economic landscape poses a risk of "stagflation," characterized by stagnant growth, high inflation, and a weak job market, which the Fed aims to avoid by appropriately setting the fed funds rate [6]. - The influence of the fed funds rate extends to borrowing costs for short-term loans, impacting consumer spending and overall economic activity [5]. Perspectives from Fed Officials - Some officials, like Beth Hammack, advocate for holding rates steady for several months to gather clearer evidence on inflation and employment trends [7][8]. - Hammack noted that inflation has been above the target for nearly five years and emphasized the importance of bringing it down [8]. - Conversely, other officials, such as Stephen Miran, argue for steeper rate cuts to mitigate recession risks, highlighting concerns over the faltering job market and hiring uncertainties [11][12].

Australia’s central bank board discussed the circumstances under which it would have to pivot to interest-rate hikes in 2026 as inflation risks shift to the upside, while reiterating that any future moves will hinge on economic data https://t.co/WvzwNQJPE7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics show an unusual correlation between rising stocks and precious metals, particularly gold, which has increased nearly 70% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20% rise [1][2]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold's performance is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the current U.S. administration's policies that may lead to increased inflation, benefiting gold prices [2][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that new long positions in gold at current levels may not be favorable, as past instances indicate potential corrections after significant price increases [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs projects a base case scenario for gold prices reaching $4,900 per ounce by 2026, with potential for further upside [4]. Market Volatility and Predictions - The current gold price is approximately 100% above its 60-month moving average, a situation not seen since 1939, raising concerns about a possible correction [5][9]. - The low volatility in the stock market, currently at 11%, is expected to rise closer to its historical average of around 20%, which could signal a market correction [10]. - The inflow of gold-backed ETFs has been increasing, contrasting with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards precious metals [11]. Cryptocurrency Outlook - Bitcoin is anticipated to revert to its historical mean of around $50,000, with skepticism about its ability to surpass $100,000 due to market saturation and overhype [12][14]. - The ratio of Bitcoin to gold has decreased to about 19 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, the lowest in nearly two years, suggesting a bearish outlook for Bitcoin compared to gold [16]. Conclusion on Precious Metals - Gold is expected to continue outperforming other commodities and the stock market, particularly in a declining stock market environment, which poses a significant risk for next year [15].