据新华社与央视新闻消息，美国总统特朗普1月13日在社交媒体上发文说，他已经取消所有与伊朗官员 的会谈。特朗普当天在底特律回答记者有关美国是否建议盟友撤离伊朗时说："他们应该撤离。这是个 好主意。"另外，美政府当日再发安全警告，敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗。 就伊朗当前防务状况，纳西尔扎德表示，通过大量努力，伊朗目前防务状况明显好于以色列去年6月突 袭伊朗引发的"12日战争"时期，相关受损设施已得到修复，生产能力也得到提升。 伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德同日称，若敌方侵犯伊朗领土，伊朗将以更强力度作出回应。他表示，如果对 伊朗的威胁转化为行动，伊朗将以"全部力量"捍卫国家。此外，本地区内所有美军基地以及为美国提供 便利的国家都将成为伊朗的合法打击目标。 联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克13日回答记者提问时说，近日围绕伊朗局势出现动武言论增多的情 况，"联合国方面当然感到担忧"。他强调，所有联合国会员国都必须推动外交努力，而不是发表动武言 论。 ...

来源：新华网 新华社联合国1月13日电（记者潘云召）联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克13日说，联合国对围绕伊朗局势 出现的动武言论表示担忧。 迪雅里克当天在例行记者会上回答新华社记者提问时说，近日围绕伊朗局势出现动武言论增多的情 况，"联合国方面当然感到担忧"。他强调，所有联合国会员国都必须推动外交努力，而不是发表动武言 论。 连日来，美国总统特朗普多次威胁军事干涉伊朗局势。特朗普13日在社交媒体上发文称，他已经取消所 有与伊朗官员的会谈。据美国《纽约时报》12日报道，五角大楼正向特朗普提交比此前报道范围更广的 对伊朗打击方案。 伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐12日说，伊朗准备在"相互尊重"的基础上同美国进行谈判，但同时已做好战争准 备。伊朗国防部长纳西尔扎德13日表示，若敌方侵犯伊朗领土，伊朗将以更强力度作出回应。 ...

黎巴嫩真主党当地时间1月13日发表声明，称最近在伊朗多地举行的大型亲政府集会"表达了伊朗人民的 真正意志"，以及对最高领袖哈梅内伊及国家机构的拥护。 真主党指责美国长期试图从内部破坏伊朗，并称有证据显示美国和以色列的相关人员利用少数群体渗透 反政府示威活动、制造混乱和破坏。 真主党重申全力支持伊朗人民及其领导层的选择，并表示伊朗将继续保持坚定、强大和独立。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Group 1 - The article highlights an increase in U.S. military aircraft activities at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is significant given the current tensions with Iran [1][2] - Various U.S. military aircraft, including KC-135 refueling planes and B-52 strategic bombers, were reported to have taken off from the Al Udeid Air Base on the night of January 11 [2] - The Al Udeid Air Base is one of the largest U.S. military bases in the Gulf region, located approximately 35 kilometers southwest of Doha and 200-300 kilometers from the Iranian border, with over 10,000 U.S. troops stationed there [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump has indicated that diplomacy is the preferred option regarding the current situation with Iran, but military action will be considered if necessary [3] - The U.S. State Department has issued an urgent security warning, advising American citizens to leave Iran immediately and to prepare for self-reliant exit plans without government assistance [4] - The warning includes recommendations for Americans to stay in safe locations, stock up on essential supplies, avoid demonstrations, and stay informed through local media [4]

德夫林表示，近日关于伊朗局势的谣言不断，以军"已做好防御准备"，保持高度戒备状态，以应对 突发情况。他强调，伊朗国内示威活动是伊朗的内政。 德夫林还说，以军将继续评估局势，同时呼吁公众"不要轻信谣言"。 新华社耶路撒冷1月12日电（记者庞昕熠 王卓伦）以色列国防军发言人埃菲·德夫林12日晚在社交 媒体上发表声明称，伊朗国内示威活动属于其内政，以军正保持高度戒备状态。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

新华社华盛顿1月11日电 据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普11日在总统专机"空军一号"上说，美 国正在考虑应对伊朗局势的一系列措施，包括军事行动等"一些非常强硬的选项"。 ...

据报道，内塔尼亚胡当天召集其高级顾问和多位部长进行安全议题磋商。 中新网1月12日电 据《耶路撒冷邮报》报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡11日在一场政府会议上表示，以方 正密切关注伊朗局势发展。 另据法新社报道，一名以色列消息人士透露，内塔尼亚胡10日曾与美国国务卿鲁比奥通话，讨论了伊朗 局势。一名美方官员证实两人进行了通话，但没有透露通话内容。 ...

近日，伊朗因物价上涨和货币贬值爆发示威活动，多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。伊朗最高国家安全委 员会9日发表声明说，在美国和以色列策划和控制下，此次抗议活动演变为对国家安全的破坏。特朗普 近期言论表明，美以正联手策划，使伊朗人民生活陷入动荡。伊朗军方10日声明，将捍卫国家利益，保 护战略基础设施和公共财产，并敦促伊朗人民团结起来"挫败敌人的阴谋"。 人民财讯1月11日电，当地时间11日，以色列能源部长埃利·科恩表示，"以色列应该做好应对任何情况 的准备，但不应干预（伊朗局势）"。 ...

Group 1 - Protests in Iran have led to casualties and unrest, with President Trump threatening intervention [1] - Iran emphasizes that its people will resolve issues through dialogue and will not allow foreign interference [1] - Internet access in Iran has been severely restricted, with reports of a nationwide network shutdown [1][4] Group 2 - Some websites, including ride-hailing services, have begun to restore functionality, but international calls remain blocked [4] - The Iranian government claims that protests are a legitimate expression of economic grievances, but some have turned into riots allegedly instigated by foreign-funded elements [4] - The supply of essential goods in Tehran remains stable, with supermarkets adequately stocked [6]