1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market focus is on the Iran situation, with rising crude oil prices due to tensions. The PXN of PX has been significantly compressed, and the supply interruption in the Middle East has pushed up the price of naphtha. However, the weak downstream polyester demand restricts the upward momentum of PX. The PTA load has decreased, and there has been inventory accumulation from March to April. But with cost support, the PTA trend is strong, and the processing fee is compressed. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate is 86.8% (down 0.8% month - on - month), and the loads of polyester and weaving have decreased. The downstream price has difficulty rising, and the production and sales of filament have been continuously sluggish. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has begun to accumulate, and there is a negative feedback of production reduction. If the cost - side price remains high, the downstream production reduction may increase [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is - 117 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month). The downstream is in a wait - and - see attitude, with moderate restocking at the stage low and less high - level transactions. The short - fiber factory's device has been started, and the load has increased. Due to weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 1107 yuan/ton (up 194 yuan/ton month - on - month). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have reduced production and load, and the price of polyester raw materials has risen significantly. The price of polyester bottle chip factories has mostly followed the increase. The load of polyester bottle chip devices has remained stable with a slight increase, and the further improvement space is temporarily limited. The mainstream factories have cut some contract volumes, the circulating supply is still tight, the inventory of bottle chip factories remains low, and the bottle chip factories mainly support the price [2]. - The strategy is to cautiously go long and hedge PX/PTA/PF/PR at low prices. Before seeing actual troop withdrawal or negotiations, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and there are still cost support and supply concerns. However, there is negative feedback on the demand side, and the current trading is difficult. It is not advisable to chase up or kill down. Attention should be paid to further changes in the start - up of Japanese and Korean refineries [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][9][14] 3.2 Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][18] 3.3 International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asian PX load [26][29][31] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][39][40] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [47][49][57] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][75][78] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][92][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the steel supply and demand fundamentals will continue to be in a game between relatively weak demand and relatively strong cost support. The core trading logic of the market lies in the macro - level, and the steel's own fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, increasing the operation difficulty. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening pattern, but in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [3][88][89] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - quarter Steel Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, steel prices continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The black industry chain showed a flat performance due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal domestic demand and the suppression of steel prices by the increase in absolute inventory levels. The upward and downward price spaces were limited, resulting in a narrow - range oscillating pattern. The forward curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil were relatively flat, and the forward premium of rebar after the Spring Festival was lower than that of last year. The basis of rebar was relatively higher than in previous years, and the supply - side pressure of hot - rolled coil was greater [10] 3.2 Demand Changes are Limited, Focus on the Rhythm of External Demand 3.2.1 Domestic Demand Remains Stable, with Limited Expectations for Incremental Policies - After the Two Sessions in March 2026, it became clear that the domestic economy in 2026 would focus on stability, with limited incremental policy space. The GDP growth target was lowered, and the scale of fiscal policies such as the deficit rate, special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds remained the same as last year. The incremental funds for "two important" and "two new" aspects were also limited. Therefore, the outlook for steel domestic demand is not optimistic [19][20] 3.2.2 Real Estate Demand is Difficult to Improve, Infrastructure Focuses on Rhythm - Since the beginning of 2026, the second - hand housing market in first - tier cities has shown signs of a slight rebound, but the sustainability is to be observed. The improvement in the first - hand housing market is limited, and the year - on - year decline in real estate sales and new construction areas is still significant. For infrastructure investment, the incremental space depends on the participation of social capital. The fiscal policy shows a pre - set trend this year, and infrastructure investment in the spring is expected to support building material demand, but it may show a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [23][24] 3.2.3 The Decline in National Subsidies May Lead to a Decline in Manufacturing Domestic Demand - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars and home appliances have declined due to the reduction of national subsidies. In early 2026, the recovery of national subsidies had limited impact on demand. The production and sales of passenger cars in January - February decreased year - on - year, and the inventory coefficient of car dealers increased. The demand for home appliances has slightly improved, but the improvement space is limited. However, the manufacturing export remains strong, and although the export to the Middle East is affected by the conflict, the long - term external demand is expected to remain strong [33][34] 3.2.4 Steel Exports are Slightly Better than Expected, and Structural Differentiation Intensifies - In early 2026, the direct exports of steel and semi - finished products were slightly better than expected. The implementation of the export license management system affected steel exports, with a year - on - year decrease in steel exports and an increase in billet exports. The export of plates decreased significantly, and the export to most regions declined. In March, the steel exports to the Middle East were affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Although the short - term export is affected, the medium - term trend is not pessimistic [51][60][61] 3.3 Inventory Structural Contradictions Remain, and Cost Support is Strengthened 3.3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts Further Strengthen Cost Support - In the first quarter of 2026, with the slight resumption of hot metal production and the increase in energy prices, the profit of finished products declined again. The cost of the long - process steelmaking has been in a relatively stable and narrow - range oscillating pattern since the fourth quarter of last year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, energy prices are unlikely to return to the pre - conflict low. If the domestic demand does not decline significantly in the second quarter, the upward risk of the cost side is higher than the downward risk [63][64][73] 3.3.2 The Total Inventory Contradiction is Controllable, and Structural Differentiation is Obvious - After the Spring Festival, the structural contradiction of finished product inventory is obvious, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. The inventory of five major varieties is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the low inventory of building materials. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil is relatively obvious, and the inventory of non - five major varieties is also at a high level. High inventory mainly suppresses the upward space of steel prices, and the risk of negative feedback in the second quarter may come from the macro - level [74][75] 3.4 Second - quarter Steel Supply and Demand Outlook and Market Trading Logic - In the second quarter, the steel market will be in a game between weak demand and strong cost support. The energy price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation and the market's expectations for the global economy will be important influencing factors. If a cease - fire agreement is reached in April, the upward space of steel prices will be limited; if not, there will be an obvious upward risk in supply and raw material costs. The core trading logic of the steel market in the second quarter lies in the macro - level, and the operation difficulty increases. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may be oscillating and strengthening, while in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [88][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are experiencing high - level fluctuations supported by costs. The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and the stainless - steel price mainly follows the nickel price, affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. In the short term, both the nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile range [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 136,080 yuan/ton and closed at 137,120 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 336,342 (+20,315) lots, and the open interest was 176,244 (-6,248) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but currently support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, with strong price increase sentiment. Nickel iron and refined nickel supplies are sufficient, but due to the high price of nickel ore, cost support is stable. MHP production is hindered, and the price remains strong due to the tight sulfur supply. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new energy sector, the production and sales of new energy vehicles meet expectations, but it's the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small demand increase, but downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is weak, mainly for rigid demand [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. Most mines are shut down due to unapproved quotas, and the energy and mineral department's current focus is on ensuring coal supply. For pyrometallurgical ore, the premium of mainstream factories is likely to remain stable next month, and some factories may increase it by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore has weakened, with the 1.3% grade quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, a 2 - dollar reduction from the previous period, and the 1.4% grade CIF receiving price at 71 dollars. With the freight still having room to fall, the cost - side pressure has eased [2]. - On the day, the nickel price was strong. Traders switched quotes to the SHFE nickel 2605 contract. Affected by the monthly spread compensation, the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel generally declined, especially for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel. In the afternoon, the purchase cost dropped, and the transaction fell to within a 3,500 - yuan/ton premium. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 4,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 57,173 (+104) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,574 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - Recently, Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience, maintaining a wide - range volatile pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support from the supply constraints of Indonesian mines. Currently, there are obvious differences between bulls and bears. On one hand, there are concerns about the macro - economic slowdown and weak demand; on the other hand, there is optimism about the price support from the tightened supply. With frequent Indonesian policies having both long and short impacts, it is expected to maintain a range - bound state in the short term. The strategy for a single - side position is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,380 yuan/ton and closed at 14,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 120,079 (-10,725) lots, and the open interest was 106,313 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel price mainly follows the nickel price and is greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. Fundamentally, on the supply side, steel mills maintain a high production plan. The total planned production of domestic stainless - steel crude steel in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production has accelerated, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. On the demand side, the market consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years. In April, consumption is expected to continue to rise, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to increase, providing bottom - support for the price [3][4]. Spot - Stainless - steel spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with limited price fluctuations. Traders sell at stable prices. Although the price has cost support, affected by macro - uncertainties, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream buyers only make rigid - demand purchases. The basic demand in the peak season is stable, and in the short term, fundamentals such as supply - demand and cost are difficult to dominate the price trend. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (-50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 105 to 305 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Fundamentally, the supply growth expectation is stronger than that of the demand side, but cost support still exists. Macro and policy factors have become the main drivers of the stainless - steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will still follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain a volatile state. The strategy for a single - side position is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt, and the black commodity sector is oscillating. Steel prices are affected by both macro and micro factors and are expected to oscillate in the short term. Iron ore prices are also oscillating, with short - term supply decreasing and demand increasing, but high inventory restricts price increases. Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating with strong cost support. Thermal coal prices are oscillating weakly due to a decline in trading sentiment [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3139 yuan/ton and 3308 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has average trading volume, with 104200 tons of building materials traded. The basis is generally stable [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building material supply - demand is seasonally improving, with inventory turning from increasing to decreasing and strong cost support from energy price increases. However, weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. Plate production and sales have improved significantly, but high inventory suppresses prices. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral strategy is to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore oscillated. The main 2505 contract closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Spot prices in Tangshan fluctuated slightly, with less trading. National main port iron ore trading volume was 591000 tons, down 11.13% from the previous day, while forward - looking spot trading volume was 830000 tons, up 135.13% [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global iron ore shipments have dropped significantly, with a large decline in Australian shipments and a slight increase in Brazilian shipments. Short - term shipments are decreasing, while iron water production is rising, and demand is improving. High inventory still restricts prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase shipping costs, and concerns about high - grade ore for far - month deliveries support prices. In the long term, port liquidity release may impact prices [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral strategy is to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated at high levels. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropped to 1120 - 1150 yuan/ton. Coal prices are relatively strong, and the first round of coke price increases has been accepted by mainstream steel mills and is expected to be fully implemented on April 1 [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal supply is relatively loose, with domestic coal mines resuming production quickly and high - level production expected in the short term. Affected by Middle East geopolitics, prices are oscillating strongly. Coke production enthusiasm is rising, supply is relatively stable, and demand is driven by the increase in iron water production. Prices are oscillating strongly following coking coal and still have room for price increases [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices stopped rising and fell. In the port area, market sentiment weakened, with upstream prices slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. Import coal demand is increasing due to improved cost - effectiveness [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Downstream demand is good, and coal prices are oscillating widely. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - **New Energy Material Price**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]