作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 1.02%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，商品情绪偏暖，叠加原料走势偏强，热卷价格低位回升，但供增需 弱局面下基本面并未好转，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑回归产业端，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.73%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，铁矿石供应偏高，而需求改善受限，矿石基本面并未改善，矿价继 续承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖与节前补库预期，多空因素博 ...

| 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | | 张晓影 | Z0003135 | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品期 | 1月8日 | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 61.99 | 59.96 | 2.03 | 3.4% | | | | | | | | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(2月) | 57.76 | 55.99 | 1.77 | 3.2% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 541 | 533 | 8 | 1.5% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 745 | 745 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纪本 | 674 | 672 | 2 | 0.3% | 美元/吨 | | 纯苯-石脑油 | 133 | 139 | -6 | -4.3% | | | 乙烯-石胸沿 | 204 | 212 | -8 | -3.8% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5300 | ...

成本端，焦煤走强，铁矿延续偏强走势。成本推升钢价。盘面利润收缩。当前处于季节性淡季，产业上 下游供需双弱，但国内煤矿减产，成本支撑稍强。目前利润从高到低依次是钢坯>螺纹>热卷。 【供应】 产量回升，铁水环比+2至229.5万吨。五大材+3.4万吨至818.6万吨。其中螺纹+2.8万吨至191万吨，热卷 +1万吨至305.5万吨。随着检修结束，1月产量回升，但考虑淡季需求和库存情况，预计复产幅度不大。 【需求】 【现货】 期货价格冲高回落，现货偏弱，基差走强。唐山钢坯-20至3040元。上海螺纹-10至3170元/吨，5月合约 基差-2元/吨；热卷-10至3300元每吨，5月合约基差-17元/吨。 【成本和利润】 【库存】 库存进入季节性累库状态，螺纹累库，热卷维持去库。五大材库存+22万吨至1254万吨；其中螺纹+16 万吨至438万吨；热卷-2.8万吨至368万吨。 【观点】 钢材冲高回落，整体弱于焦煤和铁矿，价格依然在区间内波动。本周数据钢材增产累库，表需下滑明 显。当前需求进入季节性淡季，叠加钢厂检修结束，产量低位回升，供增需减，库存止跌上升。春节前 钢材都是季节性累库走势，当前热卷表需降幅不明显，关注 ...

1月8日盘中，硅铁期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至5686.00元。截止发稿，硅铁主力合约 报688.00元，跌幅2.84%。 硅铁期货主力跌近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国信期货：总体硅铁走势依赖能源价格变化 动力煤现货由弱转强，年末电价预计偏强，给硅铁成本支撑。硅铁生成利润欠佳，产量总体低位。标志 性钢厂1月硅铁定标，下游冬季节前仍有补库意愿。总体硅铁走势依赖能源价格变化，震荡偏多看待。 宁证期货：预计硅铁期价围绕成本估值附近震荡运行 南华期货（603093）：铁合金下方空间有限 兰炭价格进一步下调，但电价高企背景下硅铁整体成本相对高位，用煤用电旺季碳元素估值下方存在支 撑，兰炭价格及结算电价难有大幅下跌。需求方面，淡季钢厂利润承压，钢材产量季节性下滑，压制炉 料端价格表现。硅铁上游供应压力逐渐缓解，但终端需求淡季供需双弱，预计期价围绕成本估值附近震 荡运行为主。 目前随着铁合金产量的增加，和库存继续累库趋势下，可能会压制震荡上涨的节奏，铁合金回调，但铁 合金下方空间有限，下方受到成本支撑，以及近期大宗商品整体偏暖和电价消息和榆林煤炭减产的扰 动，需谨慎看空。 机构 核心观点 宁 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-08 现货企稳，成本端仍有提振 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5954元/吨（+60），丙烯华东现货价5950元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5795元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差-4元/吨（-60），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率75%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR206美元/吨（-12），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR20美元/吨（-7），进口利润-231元/吨（+102），厂内库存47790吨（+1780）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率38%（+0.77%），生产利润-45元/吨（+0）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（-1%），生产利润-159 元/吨（-82）；正丁醇开工率81%（+1%），生产利润545元/吨（+100）；辛醇开工率82%（-3%），生产利润856元/吨 （+50）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润251元/吨（-36）；丙烯腈开工率78%（-2%），生产利润-998元/吨（-53）； 酚酮开工率81%（+3%），生产利润-902元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，丙烯产量整体延续高位，上游开工稳定回升，短期 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 聚丙烯分析师： 薛铭慧 【导语】2025年，PP价格走势与油价走势密切相关，2026年1月初，美国与南美某国发生地缘政治争 端，南美某国作为全球重要的重油储备国，该事件的发生也引发市场担忧全球原油市场的供给格局与价 格预期。对PP而言，原油价格的波动也通过成本面影响聚丙烯市场行情。未来1-2周，原油价格或持续 支撑PP价格上行，但预计成本支撑难抵基本面压力，上方空间有限；2026年1月PP市场价格预计先涨后 跌。 PP与原油走势强关联 成本支撑走强 原油是聚丙烯生产的直接上游，主要产油区的供应变动与国际油价波动密切相关。油价剧烈波动对以石 脑油为路线的聚丙烯生产企业构成显著成本压力，挤压其利润空间。2021-2025年，PP价格走势和原油 价格的关联性先弱后强，相关性系数维持在90% 以上。近五年来看，原油价格呈现小涨后震荡再回落 的态势。自2020年以来，原油价格经历一轮完整经济周期后步入衰退。2021-2022年中，原油价格整体 偏强震荡，重心逐步上移，一度突破120美元/桶。主要受两方面因素支撑：一是全球央行"放水"，美联 储及欧央行均推 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊看多玻璃主力合约的五大理由 基于行业供需、政策导向、技术面信号等核心维度，梳理抄底玻璃2605合约的五大核心逻辑， 兼顾基本面支撑与交易机会： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.供应收缩确定性强：行业持续亏损倒逼产能出清，1月7日讯，近日现货报价相对平稳，近期部 分厂家提涨。月底年初产线冷修逐渐兑现，且存预期外冷修产线。当前浮法玻璃日熔降至15.15万吨， 为历年新低。 2.成本筑底支撑价格：当前价格逼近900-1000元/吨的现金流成本区间，下方下跌空间有限，原 材料市场供需平衡，液碱等核心原料价格稳定，成本端形成强支撑。 3.需求边际改善可期：2026年地产竣工降幅收窄至正增长，基建专项债与绿色建材政策拉动刚 需，光伏、汽车玻璃等新兴领域需求同比增长，出口市场持续扩容补充增量。 GOLDTRUST F ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 供给过剩再度主导市场，油价走弱。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力 真空，中东地缘升温，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | 原油 | 季叠加 谨慎看空 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原 | | ★ | | 油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | LPG | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期预期主导行情走势，关注装置变动节奏。停车比例上升至至 12%，LL | | L | 空头反弹 | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超 ...

| 期现日报 | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | 2026年1日7日 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | | | | | | 0.71% | 1694 | 1682 | 12 | 01合约 | 1778 | 10 | 05合约 | 1768 | 0.57% | 元/1中 | | | 09合约 | 1730 | 15 | 0.87% | 1745 | 2215 | 78 | 3.52% | 甲醇主力合约 | 2293 | | | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 車位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | 2.33% | 01合约-05合约 | -84 | -86 | 2 | -13.16% | 05合约-09合约 | 33 | 38 | -2 | 丁C/四中 | | | 09合约-01合约 | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | 51 ...