Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Feihe [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of RMB 18.11 billion for 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.94 billion, down 45.7% year-over-year, which fell short of market expectations [3][11]. - In the second half of 2025, revenue was RMB 8.96 billion, down 15.9% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 940 million, down 44.6% year-over-year, although the decline in profits narrowed and operating margins improved [3][11]. - The company has proactively optimized channel inventory and controlled shipment schedules since May 2025, which, along with reduced government subsidies and impairment of biological assets, has placed short-term pressure on performance. However, following inventory destocking, fundamentals have strengthened, laying the foundation for profit recovery [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to be RMB 18.73 billion, RMB 19.47 billion, and RMB 20.36 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 2.41 billion, RMB 2.57 billion, and RMB 2.76 billion for the same years [5][15]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is RMB 0.27, RMB 0.28, and RMB 0.30, respectively [5][15]. Business Structure and Growth - The business structure continues to optimize, with the core infant formula business generating RMB 15.87 billion, accounting for 87.6% of total revenue, and maintaining a market share of 19% [4][12]. - New product launches have shown promising results, with the newly launched products Jiecu and Qicu generating over RMB 69 million in revenue within a month of their release [4][12]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, with revenue from the U.S. and Canada reaching RMB 180 million and RMB 50 million, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 11.7% and 23.3% [4][12]. Cost Management and Financial Health - The consolidated gross margin for the year was 65.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to an increased proportion of low-margin raw material powder revenue. However, the gross margin for infant formula powder improved to 73.5%, up 2.2 percentage points year-over-year [13]. - The company holds net cash of RMB 16.2 billion, indicating robust operating cash flow [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for hot - rolled coils is "oscillating with a slight upward trend" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Hot - rolled coils showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend on Monday. The market is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate with a slight upward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and steel mill复产. If demand continues to pick up and production is controlled, hot - rolled coils are expected to start a trend - based rebound; if demand is weak and复产 accelerates, the price will maintain an oscillating pattern [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures reduced its open interest by 72,722 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 283,214 lots, slightly increasing compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3309 in the short term, was above the 30 - day moving average of 3261 in the medium term, and faced medium - term pressure around the 60 - day moving average of 3273 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 8 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 305.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.4 million tons. The output slightly rebounded, and steel mills' willingness to resume production increased marginally. If the price of hot - rolled coils continues to rebound and steel mills' profits are further repaired, the output may continue to rise; if demand falls short of expectations, steel mills are likely to tighten production again [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 313.63 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons. The demand improved month - on - month, but the increase was weaker than the output, indicating that the demand repair was still insufficient. If the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles and home appliances are good, the apparent demand is expected to further increase; if overseas demand is weak and domestic manufacturing starts less than expected, demand repair will be hindered [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons. The steel mill inventory was 83.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons. The total inventory was 453.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The overall inventory pressure was marginally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: The government proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, which boosted the medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the demand side of hot - rolled coils, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: The total inventory is continuously decreasing, the de - stocking rhythm of social inventory is accelerating, the apparent demand is improving month - on - month, and the price of hot - rolled coils has bottom support. The manufacturing demand has stronger resilience than construction steel and has long - term fundamental support [6] - **Bearish factors**: The output has slightly increased, the supply side has expanded marginally. The demand repair amplitude is weaker than the output, and the supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of rebar. The total inventory is still at a high level, which restricts the price rebound height [6] Short - term View Summary - Hot - rolled coils oscillated with a slight upward trend on Monday. The funds accelerated the shift of positions for contract replacement, which is expected to be completed in the near future. The support below the 05 contract is around the 60 - day moving average. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and steel mill复产 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 4.56 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 18.11 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.94 billion for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.7% and 45.7% respectively. The performance was below expectations, as the prior forecast anticipated a revenue decline of only 4.0% and a net profit decline of 14.8% [1]. - The company is currently undergoing a channel inventory clearance, which has led to a temporary decline in revenue. However, it is expected that operations will return to normal after the inventory is cleared, with positive impacts anticipated from fertility subsidies [1][2]. - The gross margin for 2025 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 65.0%, while the net profit margin fell by 6.5 percentage points to 10.7%. The decline in profitability was primarily due to reduced government subsidies and losses from inventory devaluation [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from the dairy products and nutrition segment decreased by 12.6% year-on-year to RMB 18.00 billion, while the raw milk business saw a decline of 27.3% to RMB 1.1 billion. The second half of 2025 also reflected a similar trend with a 15.9% and 9.7% decline respectively [2]. - The company’s gross margin for infant formula increased by 2.2 percentage points to 73.5% in 2025, but overall gross margin was impacted by a higher proportion of lower-margin products sold [3]. Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 18.84 billion and RMB 19.51 billion, reflecting a decrease of 11% and 12% from previous estimates. The expected net profit for these years is RMB 2.77 billion and RMB 3.01 billion, which is a reduction of 24% and 27% respectively [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be RMB 0.31, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.35 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13x applied to the 2026 earnings to derive the target price [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for hot - rolled coils is "oscillating slightly stronger", while the medium - term rating requires further tracking of manufacturing demand recovery and steel mill resumption of production [7] Core Viewpoints - Hot - rolled coils showed an oscillating and slightly weaker trend on Thursday. Affected by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. The medium - term is strengthening in terms of moving averages, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous pressure platform. This week, hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, hot - rolled coils are mainly oscillating and slightly stronger. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. If demand continues to pick up and production is controlled, hot - rolled coils are expected to start a trend - based rebound; if demand is weak and the resumption of production accelerates, the price will maintain an oscillating pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was reduced by 40,839 lots, with a trading volume of 214,049 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average near 3,313, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3,257 in the medium term, and was running above the medium - term pressure of the 60 - day moving average near 3,273 [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 15 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0561 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 tons. The production resumed slightly, and the willingness of steel mills to resume production increased marginally. If the price of hot - rolled coils continues to rebound and the profits of steel mills are further repaired, the output may continue to rise; if the demand falls short of expectations, steel mills are likely to tighten production again, and the output is unlikely to increase significantly [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 3.1363 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons. The demand recovered week - on - week, and the terminal procurement improved to some extent. However, the increase was weaker than the output, indicating that the demand repair was still insufficient. If the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles and home appliances are good, the apparent demand is expected to further rebound; if the overseas demand is weak and the domestic manufacturing start - up is lower than expected, the demand repair will be hindered [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.6942 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons. The inventory of steel mills was 838,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons. The total inventory was 4.5327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was marginally relieved [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, which boosted market confidence in the medium and long term. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the downstream orders have not improved substantially. It will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The total inventory is continuously decreasing, the de - stocking rhythm of social inventory is accelerating, the apparent demand is recovering week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil price has bottom support. The manufacturing demand has stronger resilience than construction steel and has fundamental support in the long term [6] - Bearish factors: The output has increased slightly, the supply side has expanded marginally, the demand repair amplitude is weaker than the output, the supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of rebar, and the total inventory is still at a high level, restricting the price rebound height [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Neutral [2] - PP: Neutral [2] - PVC: Neutral [2] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [6] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] Core Views - The supply contraction of L is intensifying, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern is gradually tightening. The PP supply contraction continues, and the cost side provides strong support. The PVC high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space. The PX/PTA has improved fundamentals and short - term shock - strong trend. The ethylene glycol's import pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals improve. The methanol's port inventory is accelerating de - stocking, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The urea's fundamentals are relatively loose, but there is support on the cost side. The caustic soda's low - concentration alkali has a supplementary increase, and the basis strengthens [2][5][6][7]. Summary by Variety L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8715 yuan/ton, down 2.3% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 7.7%. The L05 basis was - 235 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 147 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply contraction intensifies, with new device overhauls. The ethylene price remains high. The short - term geopolitical conflict persists, and the supply - demand pattern is tightening [10]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8975 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 10.5%. The PP05 basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 383 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period. Propane prices continue to rise, and PDH profits hit a new low. The supply contraction continues, and the cost side provides strong support [13]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5703 yuan/ton, down 2.6% from the previous day. The weighted trading volume decreased by 9.8%. The V05 basis was - 203 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 98 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, and the cost support improves. The ethylene - calcium carbide开工 is differentiated, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space [17]. PX/PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 280.3 dollars/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the valuation is high. The supply side has domestic device load reduction, and the downstream demand is recovering but weakly. The PX fundamentals are improving, and it shows a short - term shock - strong trend [19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol start - up load was 66.45% as of March 19 [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is high, and the basis weakens. Both domestic and overseas devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [23]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and monthly spread weaken [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load is high, and the overseas load is low. The import volume is expected to shrink in March and April, and the port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [27]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous day. The urea comprehensive profit was 188.12 yuan/ton [29][31]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply is at a high level, the demand is recovering, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing [30][31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2502 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The SH05 basis was - 227 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Basic Logic**: The low - concentration alkali has a supplementary increase, and the basis strengthens. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East increases the expectation of load reduction of ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated devices at home and abroad [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It indicates that most commodities are in a state of wide - range oscillation, high - level oscillation, or interval operation, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors [2]. - For example, short - term price fluctuations of some commodities are affected by the decline of international night - market energy prices, but the domestic fundamentals provide support for the downside space [10][33][36]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the supply and demand of commodities is a key factor, such as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the shipping of raw materials and the production and export of products [13][71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the rubber main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and some price differences changed [4]. - **Industry News**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires increased year - on - year, but the export price decreased. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with a shift towards emerging markets. It is expected that the export volume of all - steel tires in March will decline [5][6][7]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][8] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [8]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate widely in the short term [8][10]. LLDPE and PP - **Market Trend**: LLDPE's start - up continues to decline, and cost transmission is not smooth; PP's C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the spot price follows the increase slowly [2][12] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to the strengthening of raw materials, and the cost of LLDPE increases. The demand for LLDPE's post - holiday mulch film is in line with the season, and the start - up of packaging film has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, the cost is strongly supported, and the demand has improved, but the PDH profit is at a low level [13]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali in Shandong, and the basis are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The caustic soda futures premium is large, and the 04 - contract is about to be delivered, which will suppress the market. In the long - term, the situation in the Middle East will affect the supply and demand of caustic soda. The market may oscillate widely in the short term [18]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillatory operation [2][21] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the pulp main contract increased during the day and decreased at night, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [23]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures price increased slightly, but the market trading was light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The price of household paper is expected to be stable [24][25]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable [26] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the glass futures decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [27]. - **Market News**: The price of the domestic float glass market shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market trading is average [27]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][29] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [30]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate widely in the short term [32][33]. Urea - **Market Trend**: Interval operation [2][35] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [36]. - **Industry News**: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. It is expected that the urea price will operate within an interval in the short term [36][38]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][39] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and profits changed [39]. - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene are in high - level oscillation. The conflict has affected the supply and demand of pure benzene and styrene, and the port inventory may decrease [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market changes little [2][45] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the soda ash futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and the basis and price differences changed [47]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise equipment is operating stably, the downstream demand is average, and the price is expected to be stable [47]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trend**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene's supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [2][49] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [49]. - **Market News**: The prices of CP paper goods increased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][55]. PVC - **Market Trend**: Wide - range oscillation [2][57] - **Fundamental Data**: The 05 - contract futures price, the spot price in East China, the basis, and the 5 - 9 month spread are provided [57]. - **Market Analysis**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affects the supply of PVC, and the domestic ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. The short - term basis converges, and the market is supported in the long - term [57]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Fuel oil continues to be weak, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase; low - sulfur fuel oil drops significantly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [2][59] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures decreased, the trading volume and open interest changed, and the spot prices and price differences changed [59]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: The oscillation center may move down, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [2][61] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of container shipping index futures contracts changed, and the freight rates and shipping schedules of different carriers are provided [61][67]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by geopolitical emotions. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and the change of freight rates are analyzed, and the short - term and long - term trends of the market are predicted [71][72][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: High - level fluctuations due to repeated geopolitical situations [2][78] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts decreased, and the basis, trading volume, open interest, and other data changed [78]. - **Market News**: The short - fiber futures price dropped, the spot price was stable or slightly decreased, and the sales rate was 52%. The bottle - chip factory price was mostly decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [78][79]. Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: High - level oscillation [2][81] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts decreased, and the price differences and inventory data changed [81]. - **Market News**: The pure benzene port inventory decreased, and the market trading was weak [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rebar market is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong pattern. The rebar main contract is running strongly above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. In the future, it will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. With the arrival of the peak season, the fundamentals are in a state of demand recovery and inventory reduction, which supports market sentiment. Geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. However, continuous attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Tuesday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 87,899 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 618,964 lots. The daily moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,139, and the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3,095 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,115, indicating that the short - and medium - term trends are strengthening [1]. - **Spot price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area is 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation** - **Supply side**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply - side pressure on prices is limited [3]. - **Demand side**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [3]. - **Inventory side**: The social inventory is 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons, starting to reduce inventory slightly. The steel mill inventory is 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons, also starting to reduce inventory. The total inventory is 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction for the first time, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - **Cost and profit**: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - **Macroeconomic aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Persistently weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the price rebound. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although short - term factors support the price, the fundamental driving force is weakening, and the market may face a downward adjustment. However, in the short term, it may be affected by the situation and be oscillating strongly [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened lower and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure is around the 10 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band of 1040. The trading volume increased by 682,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 33,078 lots. The intraday high was 1094, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1082, up 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - Market situation: The real - estate data last month continued to be sluggish, and the recent recovery of downstream demand was also lower than expected. The spot market still faces the pressure of high inventory and weak demand. However, due to the geopolitical situation, the cost of energy and raw materials has risen sharply [1]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the recovery of terminal demand [1]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term (slightly stronger) oscillation signal. The pressure is around the upper Bollinger Band of 1290, and the short - term support is around the 10 - day moving average of 1240. The trading volume increased by 626,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 77,032 lots. The intraday high was 1266, the low was 1198, and the closing price was 1256, up 49 yuan/ton or 4.06% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - Inventory situation: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8116 million tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons or 2.28% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons, and heavy soda ash was 864,800 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons [2]. - Market situation: The mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory in the soda ash industry has not improved. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market. However, due to the expected reduction of float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak [2]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be affected by the situation and oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in international energy prices and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The market is currently in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a significant recent rebound in apparent demand and the arrival of the seasonal peak season. The overall production has contracted, which supports prices. However, the high inventory level restricts the upside space to a certain extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction progress [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its open interest by 44,974 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 276,514 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average of around 3,303 in the short term, but is above the 30-day moving average of 3,252 and the 60-day moving average of around 3,270 in the medium term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai is reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot is -7 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The actual weekly production is 3.0021 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 49,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 241,200 tons. The resumption of production by steel mills is moderate, and the supply contraction compared to the same period last year is obvious, so the supply side exerts limited pressure on prices [4]. - **Demand Side**: The apparent consumption is 3.1051 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 151,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 201,400 tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry has driven the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak compared to the same period last year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory is 3.7633 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year-on-year increase of 522,800 tons. The social inventory has been reduced for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute quantity is still much higher than that of last year. The steel mill inventory is 849,600 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,200 tons, and the pressure has been relieved. The total inventory is 4.6129 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 513,900 tons. It has ended the inventory accumulation stage and entered the inventory reduction stage, but the total inventory is still at a high level. The entry into the weekly inventory reduction for the first time verifies the start of demand, but the absolute quantity of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arrange special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and there is no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still takes time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of high inventory in the short term [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [6].