10月10日盘中，短纤期货主力合约偏弱震荡，最低下探至6176.00元。截止发稿，短纤主力合约报 6180.00元，跌幅1.50%。 新湖期货 短纤绝对价格跟随成本运行 东海期货 短纤中期跟随聚酯端保持或可继续逢高空 新湖期货：短纤绝对价格跟随成本运行 上一交易日,直纺涤短现货工厂报价维稳，成交商谈。贸易商优惠走货，主流维持在6300~6550区间。工 厂十一期间库存增加不多，大多在1~3天附近。销售高低分化，平均产销67%。装置方面，十一期间部 分中空及低熔点短纤工厂负荷提升，但福建某棉型短纤工厂停车检修两周，短纤负荷小幅下滑至 94.3%。需求端，纯涤纱及涤棉纱报价维持，成交商谈，销售尚可。总体来看，需求环比改善，短纤库 存去化，加工费有继续修复空间，绝对价格跟随成本运行。 东海期货：短纤中期跟随聚酯端保持或可继续逢高空 短纤跟随聚酯板块调整，近期或继续保持震荡格局。终端订单季节性有提升但幅度有限，短纤开工反弹 导致库存出现有限累积，后期更多的去化仍然需要观察到终端订单的持续回暖带来的开工提升反馈，目 前来看后续上升空间或有限。短纤中期跟随聚酯端保持或可继续逢高空。 更新时间： 短纤期货主力跌超1%，对于 ...

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【2011】292号 2025年10月10日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3230 | 10 | 144 | | 3200 | 10 | 114 | | 3310 | 10 | 224 | 钢材观点 | 螺纹钢05合约 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 3020 | 3128 2989 | 31 31 | 81 220 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | 144 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3350 | 3330 | 20 | 64 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | ব | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3310 | 10 | -50 | | | 热券05合约 | 3293 | 3259 | 34 | 64 | | | 热卷10合约 | 3370 | 3384 | -14 | -20 | | 热卷01合约 成本和利润 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 08 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题： Nike FY2026Q1 营收同比下降 1%，各地区持续推进库存去化 【本周专题】 分析师 杨莹 Nike FY2026Q1 营收同比下降 1%，净利润下降 31%。近期 Nike 发布截至 2025 年 8 月末的 FY2026Q1 季报，货币中性基础上公司营收同比下降 1%至 117 亿美元（直营下降 4%，批发下增长 7%），毛利率同比下降 3.2pcts 至 42.2%， SG&A 费用率同比下降 0.6pcts 至 34.3%，净利润同比下降 31%至 7.27 亿美元。 展望 FY2026Q2，公司预计营收同比下降低单位数，全财年来看公司预计批发业务 营收有望实现适度增长，与此同时全财年直营业务或仍有下降。 持续推动库存去化，公司预计到 FY2026H1 末库存恢复健康。截至 2025 年 8 月 末，公司库存同比下降 2%至 81.14 亿美元，公司正采取多项去库手段以实现库存 正常化，公司预计 FY2026H1 末库存水平将恢复正常。 全球各主要业务地区均持续推进库存去化，从品类角度看 ...

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Recently, domestic supply - side disturbances have increased. With the maintenance of some refining and chemical plants in East and South China, production has decreased, and the import of Asian sources is restricted. Demand remains weak, and inventory in some areas has decreased. The cost has increased. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate strongly under the support of plant maintenance, but in the long - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression caused by OPEC+ production increase and less - than - expected demand recovery [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply has been continuously shrinking due to maintenance. Although production may increase this week, downstream device operation is differentiated, and inventory performance is also different. The cost of non - integrated enterprises has increased, and profit margins have been compressed. In September, the supply pressure is relatively alleviated. In the short - term, inventory is being reduced, but if demand does not improve significantly, the price increase space may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On September 22, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.92% at 6,928 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42 (+4 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.75% at 5,921 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On September 22, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.0/barrel (-$0.9/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,875 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization have decreased. The weekly output was 34.7 tons (-0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 73.4% (-1.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 61.7% (+0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (-0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (-0.7%) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to global petrochemical industry structure adjustment. South Korea has cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories have closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared with the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South and Northeast China developing in coordination [8]. 3.3 Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Monitoring** - **Styrene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.92%, and the spot price decreased by 1.78%. The basis increased by 10.53% [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: The main futures contract decreased by 0.75%, and prices in different regions had different degrees of decline [5]. - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil decreased by 1.36%, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.32%, and naphtha decreased by 1.14% [5]. - **Production and Inventory Monitoring** - **Production**: From September 5 to 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97%, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: From September 5 to 12, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, and pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Monitoring** - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changed to different degrees from September 5 to 12 [7]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The capacity utilization rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also had different changes during the same period [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月23日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为36.3734%，环比减少0.06个百分点， 全国样本企业出货31.36万吨，环比增加31.10%,样本企业产量为60.7万吨，环比减少0.16%, 样本企业装置检修量预估为69.9万吨，环比增加2.95%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。 下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.4%，环比减少0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为20.2298%，环比增加 1.71个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为30.31%，环比增加1.69个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为36.57%，环比增加0.50个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为- ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 市场分析 2025-09-22，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于74580元/吨，收于73420元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.05%。当日 成交量为396645手，持仓量为271624手，前一交易日持仓量281264手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为430元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单38909手，较上个交易日变化-575手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73200-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价71000-72200元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格833美元/吨，较前一日变化3美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，市场整体成交活跃度持稳。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材料厂存在一定国庆 节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。 进口增长较多，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 8月中国进口碳酸锂2.2万吨，环比增加58%，同比增加25%。其中，从智利进口碳酸锂1.56万吨，占进口总量的71%； 从阿根廷进口碳酸锂0.4万吨，占进口总量的19%。1-8月中国累计进口碳酸锂1 ...