Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic trends and policies in China, focusing on fiscal spending, child-rearing subsidies, and the implications of the "involution" phenomenon in different sectors [6][12][21]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The article highlights the weak yen amidst political turmoil, analyzing the reasons behind its depreciation and potential future developments [9]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced supply-demand relationship in industries to address the "involution" issue, suggesting that local governments play a crucial role in this process [12][21]. Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Child-Rearing Subsidies - Fiscal spending has accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, raising questions about whether this high growth rate can be sustained in the latter half [17]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is expected to have systemic impacts on employment, education, and healthcare, with various regions implementing different subsidy policies [19][20]. Group 3: Industrial Performance and Economic Outlook - The industrial profit data for June indicates improvements in costs and revenues, supporting a recovery in profits, although the "involution" trend may limit further declines in profits [21]. - The July Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, marking a shift towards "high-quality" investments [23]. Group 4: Market Trends and International Relations - The article notes that the PMI data for July reflects a paradox where anti-involution policies have led to price increases, yet supply-demand dynamics and industry changes appear counterintuitive [25]. - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US and Japan have resulted in positive market reactions in developed markets, indicating a potential for increased trade cooperation [28]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Activity - Despite a relatively weak industrial production environment, port cargo volumes remain strong, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [29]. - The article also tracks domestic policy developments, including the public consultation on the price law amendment, which reflects ongoing regulatory adjustments [31].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming economic policies and planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan are crucial as the Central Committee prepares for the fourth plenary session in October, focusing on economic and social development strategies [2][3]. Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policies will continue to exert influence, with an emphasis on releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring risk prevention in key areas [3][4]. - Key points from Xi Jinping's speech include maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing consumer confidence, and promoting domestic circulation to achieve economic goals for the year [3][4]. Consumer Stimulus and Policy Innovations - A significant focus is on boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of "involution," which aims to enhance the quality of supply and shift economic growth towards domestic consumption [4][5]. - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, marking a significant shift in public policy towards direct cash support for families [5][6]. Anticipated Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the child-rearing subsidy could increase retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points nationwide, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending [6]. - The political bureau's meeting highlighted plans for implementing consumption-boosting actions and expanding service consumption, suggesting that improving livelihoods will be a key driver for consumption policies in the 15th Five-Year Plan [6].

Economic Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a press conference on August 1 to interpret the current economic situation and work [1] - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to recognize risks and challenges in the economy, while leveraging development opportunities and advantages to maintain economic recovery momentum [1] GDP Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The GDP growth for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a growth of 5.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter [4] Sectoral Contributions - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3] - The secondary industry added value was 239,050 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [3] - The tertiary industry added value was 390,314 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.5% [3] Policy Guidance - The NDRC and other authorities stress the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, maintaining a stable and progressive work approach, and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line. The macro - policy was updated to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner", and for the first time proposed to "strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation" [1]. - Fiscal policy continued with a more proactive stance, with a more precise requirement on the pace of force exertion. The fiscal acceleration had shown multi - dimensional boosting effects on the economic fundamentals, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 5.2%. Monetary policy maintained a "moderately loose" stance and focused on precise investment through structural policy tools [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption. In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution" and related work. The meeting's tone on the bond market was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality, possibly back to the 1.7% central level [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Background and General Tone - The meeting on July 30, 2025, not only deployed the economic work for the second half of the year but also emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan". It continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line of the April meeting and emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The macro - policy was updated from "continue to exert force and be more powerful" to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner" and proposed to strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation [1]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Continued the "more proactive fiscal policy" tone, and required to speed up the issuance and use of government bonds and improve capital use efficiency. From January to June 2025, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 2.6 trillion yuan, of which 2.16 trillion yuan was special bonds; the total issuance of local government bonds was 5.49 trillion yuan, of which 4.31 trillion yuan was special bonds. The progress of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan special bond quota arranged in the "Government Work Report" had exceeded 90%. The fiscal acceleration had boosted the economic fundamentals, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate reached 5.2% [2]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - Maintained a "moderately loose" stance, aiming to keep liquidity abundant and drive down the comprehensive social financing cost, especially supporting industries such as "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". This year, it relied more on structural policy tools for more precise investment [2]. 3.4 Domestic Demand and Reform - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption, and the need to "cultivate new growth points in service consumption". In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution", requiring in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, improvement of market competition order, and governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [3]. 3.5 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's tone was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the incremental stimulus layout met market expectations. The short - term expectation disturbance to the bond market might come to an end, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality. Without new interest - rate cut expectations, it might return to the 1.7% central level, or even be in the range of 1.65% - 1.7% when funds were loose [3].

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险，关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断：经济良好，质量成效 经济判断：经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作：下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性，以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策：政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细"；货币政策不再提"适时降准降息"；加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作：降低风险，以我为主 内需：依然是重点。（1）在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动，且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生"；从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费，也要"培育"服务消费。 （2）在投资领域，相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设，7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展要坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、"三个代 表"重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，围绕全面建成社会主义现 代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.77% to 11203.03. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62% to 2367.68 [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (+2.05%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.84%), Media (+0.99%), Food & Beverage (+0.86%), and Social Services (+0.65%) [3][4] - The sectors that underperformed were Electric Equipment (-2.22%), Computer (-1.59%), Automotive (-1.27%), Defense & Military (-1.06%), and Communication (-0.95%) [3][4] Concept Performance - The leading concept sectors were Combustible Ice (+3.07%), Artemisinin (+2.33%), Dairy (+1.84%), Corn (+1.38%), and Community Group Buying (+1.27%) [3][4] - The lagging concept sectors included Electronic ID (-2.82%), Digital Currency (-2.81%), Mobile Payment (-2.56%), Explosive Concept (-2.27%), and Cross-Border Payment (CIPS) (-2.02%) [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to remain supported by positive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [5][6] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. tariff policy changes are highlighted as key factors to watch [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the need to adapt to complex economic changes while maintaining strategic confidence and focusing on domestic development [1][2][3] Economic Analysis - The meeting highlights that the current economic environment presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][4] - It acknowledges that despite risks, the economy has shown resilience and positive indicators, with effective macroeconomic policies leading to high-quality development [2][3] Policy Recommendations - The meeting calls for a continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic recovery [3][4] - Emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumption initiatives and effective investment strategies [3][4] Reform and Innovation - There is a strong focus on deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [4][5] - The meeting stresses the importance of creating a unified national market and optimizing market competition [4] External Trade and Investment - The meeting underscores the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected enterprises and enhancing integration between domestic and foreign trade [4][5] Risk Management - Continuous efforts are required to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability [4][5] Social Welfare - The meeting prioritizes employment policies and social safety nets, ensuring support for vulnerable groups and maintaining food security [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability while seeking progress in economic work for the second half of the year, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and consumer confidence, while promoting domestic and international dual circulation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Situation and Policy - The meeting highlighted that the economic operation in the first half of the year showed stability and progress, with a strong foundation and potential for high-quality development [2][3]. - There is a recognition of existing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating a proactive approach in macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand and deepen reforms [3][4]. Group 2: Suggestions from Political Parties and Organizations - Various political party leaders and representatives expressed support for the central government's analysis of the economic situation and provided suggestions on promoting technological and industrial innovation, enhancing service consumption, and improving social security for flexible employment groups [2][3]. - The emphasis was placed on the importance of collaboration and political responsibility under the leadership of the Communist Party [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The central government called for unity in understanding the economic situation and encouraged the use of resources and expertise to propose actionable suggestions for high-quality development [4]. - The need for the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to guide private economic actors towards high-quality development was also highlighted [4].

就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 李强通报有关情况 王沪宁蔡奇丁薛祥出席 习近平指出，上半年，各民主党派中央、全国工商联和无党派人士紧扣中共中央重大决策部署，聚焦经 济社会发展中的一些重点难点问题深入调研、建言献策，积极开展民主监督，体现了在中国共产党领导 下团结合作的政治担当和实干精神。他代表中共中央向大家表示衷心感谢。 习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出两点希望。一是统一思想认识，凝聚广泛共识。深 刻理解把握中共中央关于当前经济形势的分析判断和经济工作的指导思想、大政方针、重要部署，多做 宣传政策、解疑释惑、理顺情绪、凝聚共识的工作，汇聚起团结奋斗的强大正能量。二是立足自身优 势，推动高质量发展。结合履职选准调研题目，统筹用好各类资源和专业智库，提出更多具有前瞻性、 操作性的意见建议。全国工商联要引导民营经济人士坚守主业、做强实业，坚定不移走高质量发展之 路。 刘国中、李干杰、何立峰、张国清、吴政隆，中共中央、国务院有关部门负责人出席座谈会。 出席座谈会的党外人士还有邵鸿、何报翔、王光谦、秦博勇、朱永新、杨震和张恩迪、方光华、周黎安 等。 7 ...