转债投资
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转债再现“黄金坑”
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-15 14:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows resilience despite multiple variables. The US tariff policy on China increases economic uncertainty in Q2, and the policy level may need to cut reserve requirements and interest rates to cooperate with fiscal expansion. The central bank's injection of special treasury bonds into large - scale banks creates room for interest rate decline, and the financial regulatory department's response to abnormal A - share fluctuations stabilizes the market [4]. - The convertible bond market presents an opportunity to enter. The convertible bond price has fallen to a relatively low level, and the current cost - performance is significantly improved. The bond - like nature provides a bottom - support effect. The convertible bond market has adjusted to a "golden pit", and investors can focus on "double - low" indicator bond selection [4]. - Under the adjustment of the global trade pattern, three directions of convertible bond targets are worth focusing on: infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, and semiconductor domestic substitution. These convertible bonds have both defensiveness and growth potential and are cost - effective at the current price level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock and Bond Markets Show Resilience 3.1.1. Bond Market May See Another Buying Window - The US tariff policy on China increases the uncertainty of the Q2 economic fundamentals. If exports drag down the economy more than expected, there is a high probability of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in Q2 to cooperate with fiscal expansion. If the cuts start in April, there is still a 1 - 2 - month window for fiscal stimulus, and the basis for interest rate decline still exists [5]. - The central bank's injection of 50 billion yuan of special treasury bonds into large - scale banks has two impacts on the bond market. On the supply side, the issuance is relatively smooth from April to June, and the supply shock is mild. On the demand side, it eases the asset - side allocation pressure caused by the lack of liabilities, which is conducive to the increase in large - scale banks' demand for bonds. If credit lending remains weak, interest - rate bonds will still be an important allocation variety, and the downward space for interest rates may open up [6]. 3.1.2. Stock Market Demonstrates Resilience - When the A - share market fluctuates abnormally, Chinese financial decision - makers take quick action. The central bank and Central Huijin make important statements, and other institutions such as China Guoxin, China Chengtong, China Electronics Technology Group, and the social security fund inject liquidity into the market. Listed companies also actively repurchase shares. From April 7th to 11th, the total repurchase scale of listed companies exceeded 16.2 million yuan [8]. - The stock market has stabilized and rebounded, and trading volume has recovered. On April 11th, major stock indexes rebounded, and the average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index from April 7th to 11th rebounded to 1.61 trillion yuan [8]. 3.2. Convertible Bonds Re - emerge in the "Golden Pit" - The timing indicator shows that the convertible bond price has returned to a relatively low level. After 2025, the convertible bond price first rose, reducing its cost - performance. With the stock market adjustment, the price has fallen back, and the bond - like nature of convertible bonds can provide support, limiting further decline [13]. - As of April 11th, the median price of the convertible bond market is about 119 yuan, and the 100 - yuan premium rate is 23.04%, both returning to the level of December 2024, indicating a relatively low price [17]. - In terms of price range, convertible bonds in the medium - price range (100 - 130 yuan) have high cost - performance. They have sufficient liquidity and a reasonable valuation, with the conversion premium rate at a historical median, providing both downside protection and upside potential [20]. - Overall, convertible bonds have adjusted to a "golden pit", and it is recommended to focus on "double - low" indicator bond selection, which can enjoy the upside potential of the stock market recovery while having a bond - like safety margin [24]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Industry Allocation Ideas 3.3.1. Domestic Infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative with Weak Tariff Correlation - In recent years, China has been de - leveraging, leaving large policy space for infrastructure investment in 2025. As of March, 16 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions have released key/major project investment plans for 2025, with a total of about 16,099 projects and an investment budget of over 38 trillion yuan. The infrastructure industry usually performs well in Q2, and currently, funds may be flowing into the infrastructure sector [26]. - In the context of the Sino - US trade war, the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to be the "ballast stone" of the economy. In 2024, China's trade volume with Belt and Road countries reached 22.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade. China is accelerating economic and trade cooperation with Belt and Road countries to reduce its export dependence on the US [29]. - Recommended convertible bonds include Zhejiang Construction Convertible Bond, Huashe Convertible Bond, Sheyan Convertible Bond, Aidi Convertible Bond, Liugong Convertible Bond for infrastructure, and Beigang Convertible Bond, Jiaojian Convertible Bond, Tianlu Convertible Bond for the Belt and Road Initiative [31]. 3.3.2. Semiconductor Industry Related to Self - Reliance and Control - Sino - US tariff frictions may disrupt the mainland semiconductor industry chain, and there is still a large space for domestic substitution in many links. In 2024, China imported semiconductor - related equipment and materials worth 2.589 billion US dollars from the US, accounting for 2.60% of the total semiconductor imports. The tariff frictions may force China to accelerate the construction of its independent semiconductor industry chain [32]. - Recommended convertible bonds include Zhengfan Convertible Bond, Feikai Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, Jingxing Convertible Bond, Zhongqi Convertible Bond, and the upcoming Anji Convertible Bond, Dinglong Convertible Bond, Weice Convertible Bond [33].