一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量减仓 32410 手，成交量 404093 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3206 元，最高价 3239 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3219 元/吨， 上涨 11 元，涨幅 0.34%。 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3240 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 21 元。 二、基本面数据 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨，环比-1.30 万吨。 同比大幅下滑主要是春节前后制造业停工、终端采购 停滞的季节性影响；环比小幅回落则反映出今年节后需 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 791 手，成交量 277047 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3197 元，最高价 3220 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3215 元/吨， 下跌 8 元，跌幅 0.25%。 热卷日报：震荡整理 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3230 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 3，基差：期现基差 15 元。 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供给收缩，需求韧性，政策托底（"十五五"规划、基建投资）， ■偏空因素：需求兑现慢，原料端拖累，库存累积压制价格，宏观扰动增加 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨 ...

随着多地重大项目集中开工，水泥行业迎来2026年的第一缕暖意。从东北地区率先出现涨价信号，到海 螺水泥、金隅集团等龙头企业相继动员部署、加速复工，水泥行业正以"起步即冲刺"的姿态，全力跑好 全年"第一棒"。"基建方面，我们判断2026年投资将回正，水泥需求将有改善。"中国水泥网水泥大数据 研究院分析师李坤明在接受采访时表示，但从全年来看，预计水泥价格反弹空间有限，均价仍将下移， 行业利润仍处于低位水平。（上证报） ...

◎记者 张问之 随着多地重大项目集中开工，水泥行业迎来2026年的第一缕暖意。从东北地区率先出现涨价信号，到海 螺水泥、金隅集团等龙头企业相继动员部署、加速复工，水泥行业正以"起步即冲刺"的姿态，全力跑好 全年"第一棒"。 春节假期刚过，水泥行业龙头企业迅速从"假日模式"切换至"工作模式"，以"干字当头"的奋进姿态，全 力跑好全年"第一棒"。 在海螺集团多个生产基地，机器运转声此起彼伏，生产线高速运转；在销售物流一线，车辆来回穿梭， 首批产品整装待发，跑出复工复产的"加速度"。抢时间、抓进度，随着"第一车"优质水泥顺利出 厂、"第一船"熟料整装发运，海螺水泥以实实在在的"开门红"，开启全年高质量发展新局。 春节过后，多地重大项目集中开工，有望为水泥需求提供有力支撑。"预计春节后全省水泥市场销售均 价将偏强运行，但上行幅度将在很大程度上取决于项目的实际落实情况。"湖南省商务厅研判认为，鉴 于2026年湖南省交通基建投资仍有较大潜力，为"十五五"实现良好开局提供项目支撑，春节后水泥市场 预期向好。 从机构预测来看，2026年基建投资有望保持温和增长。中金公司研报预计，2026年基建投资增速为 4.5%。平安证券首 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 关注节后开复工情况，继续推荐鸿路钢构 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20260209-20260215） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 积极关注节后开复工节奏，2026Q1 有望迎来"开门红"。复盘历次"五年规划"周期， 基建投资普遍呈现"前高后稳"的阶段性特征，"十三五""十四五"周期表现尤为清晰 ——前半段项目集中落地、投资增速处于相对高位，后半段节奏趋稳。2026 年作为"十 五五"开局之年，在规划密集落地与项目储备释放背景下，投资节奏有望重新进入抬升阶 ...

智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱银行指出，美国企业债的强劲需求正推动一级市场呈现有史以来最激烈的竞 争态势，同时带动二级市场交易活跃度显著提升。 报告提到，参与一级市场交易的基金(包括ETF、指数基金)显著拓宽了市场参与度，其需求分散在多类 工具中;美国寿险公司的买盘也进一步加剧竞争。2024年以来，境外投资者长期持有美国企业债规模同 比增长约10%，为全球金融危机后首次连续两年正增长。 未能在一级市场抢到新债的投资者，转而推动二级市场交易升温。数据显示，2025年规模超10亿美元的 高评级债，上市前10天换手率升至26%，较2017年大增73%;其中近三分之一的增长可直接归因于一级市 场的激烈竞争。 同时，债券上市后首笔二级市场成交耗时已从2022年前的60分钟近乎减半，降至20-30分钟。 根据巴克莱自主编制的竞争指数(对标市场常用的赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数，用于衡量市场集中度与竞争程 度)，美国高评级债及垃圾债市场的竞争激烈程度，已超过2017年以来任何时期。 巴克莱策略师周三发布报告称，2025年上半年，高评级债市场竞争强度较2017年高出15%，垃圾债市场 则高出约30%。2017-2025年间，规模超10亿 ...

" 水泥 茅" 海螺水泥 （600585.SH、00914.HK）将获控股股东大手笔增持。 2月24日晚间，海螺水泥发布公告称，公司控股股东海螺集团计划自公告披露之日起6个月内增持公司A 股股份，增持金额不低于7亿元且不高于14亿元。本次增持不设定价格区间。 长江商报记者注意到，目前，海螺水泥的股价处于自2020年以来的低位，不过2026年以来，尤其是最近 一个多月，公司股价涨幅明显，1月20日至今，公司股价累计涨幅超19%，期间，成交量较此前也有明 显放大。 业绩方面，海螺水泥的归母净利润连续四年下滑后，在2025年明显企稳。 数据显示，2025年前三季 度，公司的归母净利润为63.05亿元，同比增长21.28%。此外，海螺水泥的资产质量较好，截至2025年 三季度末，公司的资产负债率仅20.59%。 获控股股东大手笔增持 海螺水泥获控股股东增持。 2月24日，海螺水泥发布公告，控股股东海螺集团拟未来6个月内增持公司A股股份，增持金额不低于7 亿元、不高于14亿元，将通过上交所集中竞价方式实施，且不设价格区间。 截至公告日，海螺集团持有公司36.4%股份，此次增持资金来自自有资金及专项贷款。海螺集团承诺增 ...

国投证券指出，2026年基建需求端仍较为充足，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，推动投资止 跌回稳。2025年八大建筑央企新签订单实现同比正向增长，建筑企业经营有望迎边际改善。Q1通常为 全国及各省份基建/投资政策密集发布期，或驱动建筑行业估值提升。建筑企业出海战略略显成效，境 外新签订单同比快速增长，为2026年海外创收奠定基础。2025年，已披露的七大建筑央企海外新签订单 同比增长13%，国际工程板块龙头中材国际海外新签合同额同比高增24%。在全球AI技术加速迭代背景 下，半导体及泛半导体全产业链各细分领域均呈现需求增长态势，洁净室建设需求有望持续释放，洁净 室工程龙头受益下游景气度提升。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 上海发布楼市"沪七条"，2月25日，基建ETF（159619）盘中涨超2%，关注传统板块边际改善机会。 基建ETF（159619）跟踪的是中证基建指数（930608），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及机械制造、建筑 施工等基础设施建设的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映基建相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数成 分股覆盖传统基建与部分先进制造业，具有较高的行业代表性。 消息面，上海市住房城乡建设管理 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" game. The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, improved export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. The market as a whole maintains a weak oscillating trend [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had an increase of 18,657 lots in open interest on Tuesday, with a trading volume of 373,301 lots, showing an increase in volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,181 yuan, and the high was 3,230 yuan. It closed at 3,195 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.87%. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages [1]. - The spot price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The basis between futures and spot was 35 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 3.0776 million tons in the week of February 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4]. - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory trend changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social side. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, an increase of 0.0212 million tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 0.7875 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing an obvious accumulation compared to before the festival [4]. - **Policy**: Domestically, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about to start and the Two Sessions are approaching, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival is unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan 6-month outright repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].