每经记者｜李可愚 每经编辑｜王可然 近日公布的2018年上半年国民经济运行数据显示，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供 应业）同比增长7.3%，增速比1~5月份回落2.1个百分点。 在上半年基建投资增速趋缓的大背景下，下半年地方融资和基建投资将面临怎样的态势？7月17日，在 由瑞银举办的"下半年中国宏观经济展望"会议上，瑞银亚洲经济研究联席主管、中国首席经济学家汪涛 对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，在地方融资"堵后门"的同时，应该开一定的"前门"，应该加大地方政府 债务和专项债的发行力度，使得它们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。 而接下来，又该如何协调去杠杆和保证正常融资需求之间的关系？对此，汪涛认为，对地方政府债务的 控制肯定是正确的，这是降低金融风险的方向。 不过，地方政府既然有很多基建，包括PPP项目，如果控制影子信贷或其他各方面的融资，那么在"堵 后门"的同时就应该开一定的"前门"，地方政府债务（显性债务）、专项债，应该加大发行力度，使它 们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。"我们认为这方面对PPP项目、对地方融资渠道可能也会有一定调整，使 得下半年，尤其四季度之后基建投资可能走稳。"汪涛这样向记者表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a short-term increase in economic downward pressure, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and repairing industrial product prices while maintaining the overall principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [1] CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% in October from -0.3% in the previous month, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase [2] - The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices of fruits and vegetables [2] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, improving from a decline of 2.3% in September, with the mining sector providing significant support [3] - The prices of production materials increased by 0.1%, with mining prices up by 1% [3] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49% in October from 49.8% in September, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4] - The decline in PMI is attributed to high inventory levels, a weakening demand structure, and reduced investment demand due to accelerated debt repayment [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in October, worsening from a decline of 0.5% in September [6] - The decline in infrastructure investment is influenced by multiple factors, including accelerated debt repayment and insufficient project reserves [6] Credit - New credit issuance in October was 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 815 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down [7] M2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year in October, down from 8.4% in September, influenced by a rebound in fiscal deposits [8] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to support effective investment and address existing debt issues [9]

Core Insights - Google CEO Sundar Pichai envisions a future where AI transitions from dialogue to completing real tasks, exemplified by the launch of Nano Banana Pro (Gemini 3 Pro Image), which serves as an AI workstation capable of data processing and task completion rather than just image creation [1][3][11] - Pichai emphasizes that the current AI investment wave is not a bubble but a rational, unprecedented infrastructure investment, with Google alone spending over $90 billion this year on AI infrastructure, contributing to an industry total exceeding $1 trillion [7][9][26] - To make AI truly useful, Google must address three key challenges: energy consumption, copyright issues, and trust in AI outputs [25][30] Group 1: AI Transition and Product Development - The focus of AI is shifting from conversation to action, with expectations that AI will perform more complex tasks in the next 12 months [12][13] - Nano Banana Pro represents a significant shift in the role of image AI, moving beyond mere inspiration to becoming a comprehensive tool that integrates with Google Search and other applications [3][20] - Pichai's goal is to create tools that are not just visually appealing but practically useful, enabling users to accomplish tasks efficiently [4][8] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Pichai describes the current AI investment phase as a "building endurance race," with a focus on substantial infrastructure development [5][6] - The industry is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Google leading the charge, indicating a long-term commitment to building foundational capabilities [7][9] - This investment is seen as a necessary step to meet real customer demands, which are currently outpacing the industry's ability to fulfill them [6][10] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The first challenge is energy consumption, with Pichai acknowledging that data centers' energy use could surpass that of entire countries, while Google aims for net-zero carbon by 2030 [26][27] - The second challenge involves copyright, as Pichai discusses the need for a framework that respects content creators while training AI models [28][29] - The third challenge is trust, where Pichai highlights the importance of ensuring AI-generated information is accurate and reliable, integrating AI with Google Search to enhance credibility [30][31] Group 4: Future of Image AI - Nano Banana Pro aims to transform how users interact with images, making it a gateway rather than a standalone application [20][24] - The tool is designed to assist users in expressing complex information clearly and efficiently, thereby enhancing productivity [23][32] - Pichai's vision for Nano Banana Pro is to enable users to navigate complex data with ease, making AI a practical tool for everyday tasks [32][33]

Group 1 - Germany has established a groundbreaking infrastructure fund worth €500 billion to address economic challenges, marking the largest investment project in decades [1] - A survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce in China and KPMG revealed that 40% of Chinese enterprises in Germany see new business opportunities arising from this fund [1] - Key areas of interest for Chinese companies include digitalization (51%), energy (48%), and electric vehicles (35%) [1] Group 2 - Despite the fund's potential, actual investments have been limited, with only 15% of surveyed Chinese companies seeking partnerships in Germany and 10% planning to participate in public tenders [1] - High labor costs and strict labor regulations are viewed as the biggest challenges by 73% of respondents, while 53% cite regulatory complexity as a serious issue [1] - The fund's implementation has been criticized for slow progress and potential misallocation of resources, raising concerns about trust in fiscal policy [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the fiscal policy in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on balancing active and sustainable requirements to promote stable growth, improve people's livelihoods, and mitigate risks [1][2] Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2026, the narrow fiscal deficit rate is expected to exceed 4%, with new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion and long-term special government bonds issued at approximately 1.5 trillion [1][3] - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift in expenditure structure towards "people's livelihood," which is linked to the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since the third quarter [2] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with continued tight constraints [2] - On the expenditure side, broad fiscal spending is expected to moderately expand, with a structural shift towards social welfare and a decline in infrastructure investment contributing to a drag of at least 2 percentage points [2][3] Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy will focus on three key tasks: 1. Promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives 2. Addressing the growth continuity issues due to external demand slowdown 3. Resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [2] Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, three key questions need to be clarified: 1. The scale and path of debt management funding, with around 3 trillion in special bonds needed for debt management and clearing [3] 2. The potential increase in interest payment pressure post-debt replacement, which may rise but remain manageable due to a low interest rate environment [3] 3. The funding sources and performance of infrastructure investment, with an expected growth rate of around 3.5% in 2026 [3] Overall Fiscal Growth Projections - The overall growth rate of broad fiscal spending is projected to be around 4.6% in 2026, with the narrow fiscal deficit rate needing to exceed 4% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) [3][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant reduction in net cash outflow from operating activities and a rapid increase in overseas orders, indicating strong demand in the infrastructure sector [2][5]. - The forecast for EPS has been adjusted downward for 2025-2027, now projected at 1.55, 1.56, and 1.59 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.0% for 2025 [3][4]. - The target price is set at 12.04 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 7.8 times for 2025 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while revenue fell by 3.9% to 728.4 billion yuan [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 8.77%, down 0.39 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 2.03% [4][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in accounts receivable, which rose by 20.2% year-on-year to 246.16 billion yuan [4][5]. Order and Contract Insights - New contracts signed in Q1-Q3 2025 totaled 1.5188 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with overseas contracts surging by 94.5% [5][19]. - The report notes that the company has a strong presence in various infrastructure sectors, including railways, highways, and airports, with significant growth in new contracts for these areas [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current dividend yield is 3.8%, with a PB ratio of 0.39, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2][6]. - The report provides a comparison of CRCC's valuation metrics with peers, showing a PE of 5.1 for 2025, which is below the industry average [3][22].

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to balance growth, social welfare, and risk prevention, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to exceed 4%[1] - New local special bonds are projected to be around CNY 4.6 trillion, while ultra-long-term special government bonds may be issued at approximately CNY 1.5 trillion[1] Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, the fiscal structure shifted towards "people's livelihood," with a mild recovery in revenue but continued constraints[2] - Total broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, with a focus on social welfare and consumption incentives[5] Infrastructure Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by debt resolution and effective investment strategies[3] - Approximately CNY 3 trillion in special bonds will be needed for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments in 2026[3] Consumer Spending and Social Welfare - Consumer spending is projected to grow at around 4.5%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and birth subsidies[4] - The expected increase in social welfare spending includes a CNY 1,080 billion rise in pensions and CNY 1,000 billion for birth subsidies, which will stimulate consumption[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, sluggish recovery in consumer spending, and rising local debt pressures[5] - The fiscal space may be constrained, impacting the effectiveness of the proposed measures[5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure projects, including three industrial parks and a research center, and plans to slow down future investments in this area while maintaining high levels of R&D spending [2] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The Dongguan Phoenix Industrial Park's smart park has completed its third phase, with some production lines already operational [2] - The Xiangtan ceramic powder industrial park has been completed and is now in production [2] - The Shanghai Songjiang Industrial Park has been completed, with some production lines gradually starting operations [2] - The Shenzhen research center has also been completed [2] Group 2: Future Investment Strategy - The company plans to significantly reduce its capital expenditures compared to the previous phase of infrastructure development [2] - Future investments will focus on emerging markets and new product capacity, which will continue to be supported [2] - R&D investments will remain at a high level, with specific capital allocation to be adjusted according to market demand [2]

Core Insights - The "Two Major" construction projects are being prioritized as a key focus for effective investment and new productivity cultivation, aiming to stabilize economic growth [1][4][6] - The government plans to allocate 800 billion yuan to support 1,459 projects under the "Two Major" initiative, covering critical areas such as ecological restoration, transportation infrastructure, and water conservancy [2][3] - The construction of significant projects like the Fangxian to Wufeng Expressway and Shangqiu Airport is expected to enhance transportation efficiency and strengthen regional connectivity [1][2] Group 1: Project Developments - The Fangxian to Wufeng Expressway project spans approximately 31.6 kilometers with a construction period of 4.5 years, designed to significantly improve travel efficiency [1] - The Shangqiu Airport, with a total investment of around 800 million yuan, aims to enhance Shangqiu's position in the national transportation network [2] - The G248 highway project in Gansu and Sichuan is also underway, contributing to the national road network and tourism development [2] Group 2: Policy and Financial Support - The "Two Major" construction projects are seen as a vital part of the government's strategy to boost effective investment and foster new productivity [3][4] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is expected to increase, providing financial support for the "Two Major" projects over the next five years [3][4] - Experts emphasize the need for a precise matching mechanism between funding and projects to optimize resource allocation [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The ongoing "Two Major" construction efforts are anticipated to accelerate infrastructure investment growth, acting as a stabilizer for the macro economy [6] - The introduction of new policy financial tools and special bond allocations is expected to enhance investment confidence and stabilize fixed asset investment growth by early 2026 [6] - The government aims to improve the investment environment and stimulate private investment to support high-quality economic development [7]