转债投资

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10月转债策略展望:震荡切换,攻守兼备
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-09-30 07:32
Group 1 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight increase of 0.6% in September, following a 2% rise in the stock market, with high valuations suppressing performance and significant outflows from ETFs [3][5][10] - The semiconductor, optical communication, humanoid robots, and lithium battery sectors showed rapid rotation, indicating a highly structural market [3][5][10] - The convertible bond ETF scale decreased by 6.2% to 70 billion, reflecting a net outflow trend throughout the month [3][8][10] Group 2 - The outlook for the convertible bond market suggests that high-priced varieties still have potential elasticity, although there are risks of correction [3][40] - The strategy for October emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on mid-cap and large-cap growth stocks, with a preference for convertible bonds that are mid to high-priced [3][40][43] - Recommended convertible bond combinations for October include Hengyi Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and others [3][40] Group 3 - In September, the electronic and automotive sectors led the gains in convertible bonds, with increases of 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, while non-bank financials and banks saw declines [3][22][24] - The performance of high-priced convertible bonds was strong, with a year-to-date increase of 24.3%, while mid and low-priced bonds saw lower gains [3][31][32] - The convertible bond market showed a divergence in performance, with mid to low-rated bonds rising nearly 2%, while high-rated bonds fell by 2% [3][37]
中银基金范锐:构建右偏的收益曲线,做投资者敢买的产品
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 14:09
导读:伴随着债券收益率的不断下降,含权的债券型产品需求出现了爆发。越来越多低风险偏好的投资者,希望通过购买这类产品,获得更高的收益。这 就让我们想到了:可转债。 如何利用好转债,是这类产品控制回撤,又能力争带来收益增厚的关键。带着这个问题,我们找到了非常善于在组合中使用转债做投资的中银基金范锐。 从2015年加入中银基金后,范锐就一直在研究可转债。他不仅擅长做转债投资,其投资理念也有很深的"转债烙印"。截至6月30日,他管理的中银产业债 A过去一年取得了9.31%的收益率,业绩比较基准收益率2.36%,相对基准跑赢了6.95%。(数据来源:基金定期报告;数据截止:2025年6月30日) 那么,范锐是怎么实现这样的收益,他在转债投资上又有什么不同呢? 在底层的投资观上,范锐认为未来可持续的业绩不能过度依赖对未来的预测。世界是高度不确定的,需要构建一个具有风险收益比的组合。那么,如果他 看对了,组合能实现好的表现,而即便他看错了,也不会出现太大的伤害。这种底层投资观,恰好就对应了转债的不对称性。 不对称性的关键,在于做赔率的朋友。范锐在转债的择时和择券,都关注了赔率优先的理念。他会在转债资产显著低估的时候,加转债 ...
中银基金范锐:构建右偏的收益曲线,做投资者敢买的产品
点拾投资· 2025-09-25 11:00
用 一 句 话 总 结 我 的 转 债 择 券 理 念 : 基 于 正 股 特 征 的 风 险 收 益 比 分 析 SE 基 金 经 理 英 雄 榜 第 5 7 6 期 导读:伴随着债券收益率的不断下降,含权的债券型产品需求出现了爆发。越来越多低风险偏好的投资者,希望通过购买这类产品,获得更高的收 益。这就让我们想到了:可转债。 如何利用好转债,是这类产品控制回撤,又能力争带来收益增厚的关键。带着这个问题,我们找到了非常善于在组合中使用转债做投资的中银基金 范锐。从2015年加入中银基金后,范锐就一直在研究可转债。他不仅擅长做转债投资,其投资理念也有很深的"转债烙印"。截至6月30日,他管理 的中银产业债A过去一年取得了9.31%的收益率,业绩比较基准收益率2.36%,相对基准跑赢了6.95%。 (数据来源:基金定期报告;数据截止:2025年6 月30日) 那么,范锐是怎么实现这样的收益,他在转债投资上又有什么不同呢? 在底层的投资观上,范锐认为未来可持续的业绩不能过度依赖对未来的预测。世界是高度不确定的,需要构建一个具有风险收益比的组合。那么, 如果他看对了,组合能实现好的表现,而即便他看错了,也不会出现太 ...
正股业绩与估值均处低位的优质平衡型个券
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-10 08:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The Hedda Convertible Bond (127088.SZ) is a high - quality balanced bond with the issuer's performance and valuation at a low level. The company has excellent fundamentals, and its performance and valuation are at historical lows. The bond has a long remaining term [1][4] - Based on the Shanxi Securities convertible bond valuation model, if the stock price remains unchanged, without considering forced redemption and downward revision, the reasonable valuation of the Hedda Convertible Bond is between 124 and 132 yuan [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information about the Convertible Bond - The Hedda Convertible Bond has a rating of AA - a bond balance of 600 million yuan, accounting for 99.97% of the total issuance. The remaining term is 3.82 years. The latest closing price is 122.79 yuan, the conversion premium rate is 50.15%, and the pure bond premium rate is 14.83% [1] Information about the Underlying Stock - The underlying stock is Shandong Hedda (002810.SZ), established in 1992. Its main products are cellulose ether and plant capsules, and its business covers more than 100 countries and regions. The latest total market value is 4.797 billion yuan, and the 2025E PE is 26.3x. The actual controller is an individual, and the largest shareholder and persons acting in concert hold a total of 39.87% of the shares. The attributable net profit in H125 decreased by 8.71% year - on - year [2] Main Highlights of the Hedda Convertible Bond - The company has been deeply involved in the cellulose ether industry for nearly 30 years. Cellulose ether has many advantages. The company's products cover more than 70 categories and more than 100 models, with rich structure and leading technology. By the end of H125, its wholly - owned subsidiary Zhongfu Hedda had a production capacity of 10,000 MT and was one of the largest HEC manufacturers in China [3] - The company has extended its industrial chain to the downstream plant capsule industry. Compared with gelatin capsules, plant capsules have many advantages and are mainly used in the steadily growing health product industry. By the end of H125, the company's effective production capacity was 30 billion capsules, with a capacity utilization rate of about 60%. The US factory with a planned capacity of 20 billion capsules is under construction and is expected to be put into production in the middle of next year [4] - The company has a high proportion of overseas revenue. In 2024, the export proportions of building - grade, pharmaceutical and food - grade cellulose ether, and plant capsules were 56.4%, 57.3%, and 88.2% respectively. In 2025, the US imposed anti - dumping duties on some of the company's products, affecting orders and increasing raw material costs. Currently, the company is actively responding, and the unreasonable factors may ease in Q4, when the performance is expected to turn around [4]
固收:转债下跌后的应对策略
2025-09-02 14:41
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the convertible bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and valuation of convertible bonds in relation to the stock market fluctuations [1][2][6][23]. - Key companies mentioned include: - **文泰公司 (Wentai)**: A leading power semiconductor company with a significant automotive business [8]. - **正帆公司 (Zhengfan)**: Engaged in gas chemical systems and cleanroom systems [9]. - **新锐公司 (Xinxin)**: Focused on precision components for the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [17]. - **友发钢铁公司 (Youfa Steel)**: Expected to see strong performance due to industry recovery [19]. - **禾邦生物 (Hebang Bio)**: Anticipated to benefit from price increases in glyphosate and the photovoltaic glass industry [20]. - **科顺防水材料 (Keshun Waterproof Materials)**: Planning to expand overseas and improve profit margins [21]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The valuation of convertible bonds has compressed, with a noted decline of approximately 4 to 5 yuan, indicating potential for rebound if the stock market stabilizes or rises [2][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Convertible bonds in the 90-100 parity range are currently priced around 125 yuan, suggesting they may offer good value compared to earlier periods [5]. - Large-cap assets with a remaining maturity of less than three years and a balance exceeding 5 billion yuan show significant valuation compression, presenting investment opportunities [5][6]. - **Market Trends**: The manufacturing sector, particularly in upstream industries like steel and photovoltaics, is showing signs of improvement, which could positively impact convertible bond pricing if stock market conditions remain favorable [6][10]. Additional Important Content - **Selection Criteria for Convertible Bonds**: Investors are advised to focus on low-valuation factors, low crowding, and equity-oriented assets without strong redemption pressure, particularly in optimistic sectors like steel and photovoltaics [7][11]. - **Company-Specific Developments**: - **文泰公司**: Anticipated operational improvements due to rising demand in the automotive sector and European automotive inventory replenishment [8]. - **正帆公司**: Expected to perform well due to its involvement in equipment investment and gas product demand [9]. - **新锐公司**: Projected to see performance improvements in the second half of the year, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [18]. - **Market Environment for Convertible Bonds**: The current market is seen as a favorable time for investing in convertible bonds, especially after recent fund withdrawals, indicating a potential for re-entry into the market [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the convertible bond market, specific company insights, and broader industry trends.
转债市场点评:转债投资者该如何应对后续市场波动?
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-26 14:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Convertible bond investors face the challenge of achieving both absolute and relative returns. With the current equity market in an accelerated upward phase, it's time to consider adjusting positions to handle the potential post - peak volatility, and the discussion is carried out from two dimensions: position adjustment and structure switching [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs How to Adjust Positions - Right - side position reduction is more reasonable as it's difficult to predict the end of the capital inflow. Left - side position reduction may lead to missed buying opportunities and increased trading costs if the equity market continues to rise [3] - The decision should be based on key time nodes and account profit - loss conditions. Historical data shows that the market's performance after key time nodes is uncertain. If the floating profit is limited, early position reduction can be considered [4] How to Switch Structures Anti - Drop Convertible Bonds - Historically, convertible bonds priced between 110 - 115 yuan are the most anti - drop, but there are no institution - allocable bonds below 110 yuan currently, and these bonds may be affected by the bond market pressure [9][10] Bonds with Strong Investor Reluctance to Sell - Bonds with strong conversion demands from the company, especially those with a history of full - scale downward revisions, short remaining terms, and high asset - liability ratios, may see issuers take measures to promote conversion [11] - Bonds related to sectors with strong positive - stock logic, such as overseas computing power and sectors with improving profitability, as well as positive - stock high - volatility under - valued sectors, may be favored by investors [13] - Convertible bonds that have risen smoothly this year and offer a good holding experience, as indicated by a high Sharpe ratio, may also be subject to investor reluctance to sell [15] Other Options - Diversify in major asset classes, such as rapidly increasing the position of pure bonds and appropriately increasing the portfolio duration to reduce the overall portfolio net - value volatility [16]
转债投资机构行为分析手册
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-22 00:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report conducts a detailed analysis of the convertible bond investment strategies and preferences of different types of investment institutions, aiming to form a handbook for analyzing the behavior of convertible bond investment institutions. It focuses on an overview and the public fund section, considering the significant differences in investment strategies and information disclosure mechanisms between public funds and non - public funds [1][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Investment Institutions and Analysis Method Overview - **Investor Structure and Proportion**: As of the end of July 2025, public funds and enterprise annuities are the "main forces" in direct convertible bond investment. Public funds hold a significant proportion, with 35.56% of the face value of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds and 33.31% of the market value of Shenzhen - listed convertible bonds. Enterprise annuities are the second - largest investment institutions, holding 18.41% of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds and 13.23% of Shenzhen - listed convertible bonds. Insurance institutions, securities self - operation also occupy important positions. Other professional institutional investors hold a relatively small proportion [10]. - **Changes in Investor Structure**: Compared with the end of 2021, the "influence" of public funds and insurance institutions has increased, while the proportion of enterprise annuities has decreased. The investment proportions of securities self - operation, private funds, and trust institutions have increased, and the proportion of general institutional investors represented by listed company shareholders has significantly decreased [13]. - **Differences in Investment Strategies**: Different types of professional institutional investors have differences in convertible bond investment restrictions, preferences, and investment strategies. Public funds generally have fewer restrictions on convertible bond ratings and focus on relative returns. Pension funds, insurance institutions, and social security funds have clear rating restrictions and focus on absolute returns [19]. - **Analysis Data Sources**: For public funds, quarterly reports can be used to analyze their convertible bond investment preferences. For other investment institutions, the top ten holders of convertible bonds disclosed in the semi - annual and annual reports of convertible bond issuers provide detailed analysis materials [20]. 3.2 What are the Characteristics of Public Funds' Convertible Bond Investment? 3.2.1 Overview of Public Funds' Convertible Bond Holdings - **Scale and Proportion Changes**: Since Q4 2023, the market value and proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds have been slightly decreasing. The number of public funds investing in convertible bonds has decreased overall, but their participation in the convertible bond market has increased [24]. - **Industry Distribution Preference**: As of Q2 2025, public funds significantly over - allocate convertible bonds in industries such as metals, chemicals, transportation, automobiles, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and banking, and under - allocate those in industries such as petrochemicals, steel, construction decoration, public utilities, environmental protection, and power equipment [29]. - **Price, Valuation, and Rating Preferences**: As of the end of Q2 2025, public funds over - allocate convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range and above 150 yuan, and AA and AA - rated convertible bonds; they under - allocate other convertible bonds [29]. - **Differences in Sub - investor Structure**: Public funds account for about 30% in the overall convertible bond investor structure, but their influence varies in different industries, price ranges, and rating segments [35]. 3.2.2 Differences in Convertible Bond Holdings among Various Funds - **Differences in Convertible Bond Holdings by Fund Type**: Secondary bond funds, the main force in convertible bond allocation, have significantly reduced their convertible bond holdings since Q3 2023. Convertible bond funds and primary bond funds are important holders. The convertible bond positions of convertible bond funds have reached a historical high, while those of secondary bond funds, primary bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds have decreased [44][46]. - **Characteristics of Convertible Bond Funds' Holdings**: In Q2 2025, convertible bond funds increased their holdings in industries such as petrochemicals, public utilities, and communications, and decreased their holdings in upstream energy materials and mid - stream manufacturing industries. They stably over - allocate convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range and under - allocate those in the 100 - 120 yuan range [48][57]. 3.2.3 Characteristics of Convertible Bond Holdings of High - performing Funds - **Scale and Quantity of Convertible Bond Holdings**: Different high - performing funds have different scales and quantities of convertible bond holdings. For example, Fuguo Jiuli Stable Allocation has a relatively concentrated holding, while Huashang Fengli Enhancement has a large number of holdings but a small average holding per bond [73]. - **Industry, Rating, and Price Preferences**: Different high - performing funds have different preferences in terms of industry, rating, and price. For example, Fuguo Jiuli Stable Allocation prefers convertible bonds in the power equipment, banking, and pharmaceutical industries, while Huashang Fengli Enhancement prefers high - priced and manufacturing - related convertible bonds [74]. 3.3 How to Analyze Non - public Fund Convertible Bond Investments? 3.3.1 Starting from the "Top Ten Holders" of Individual Bonds - **Investor Classification**: Convertible bond investors are divided into 11 major categories and 24 sub - categories based on the names of bondholders. The top ten holders' data accounts for about 40% of the convertible bond market, and public funds, pension products, etc. frequently appear in the list [86][87]. - **Data Representativeness**: The data of the top ten holders is representative for analyzing the convertible bond investment preferences and characteristics of various investors. After excluding the "repurchase pledge special account" and "company - related institutions", the data (referred to as "top ten holders 2") can more objectively present the data conclusions [88][89]. 3.3.2 Preliminary Exploration of Non - public Fund Institutions' Convertible Bond Investments - **Industry Distribution of Convertible Bond Holdings**: As of the end of 2024, "private asset management" institutions hold more convertible bonds in the power equipment industry but less in pro - cyclical industries. "Securities self - operation" has a relatively high proportion of holdings in the steel, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment industries. "Insurance" has a relatively dispersed convertible bond portfolio [97]. - **Rating and Price Distribution of Convertible Bond Holdings**: "Private asset management" and "QFII" have a higher tolerance for low - rated convertible bonds. "Insurance" and "securities self - operation" have a relatively high proportion of AAA - rated convertible bonds. In terms of price, "private asset management" has a high proportion of convertible bonds below 100 yuan, while "insurance", "social security funds", and "QFII" mainly hold convertible bonds in the 110 - 120 yuan range [97][98].
固收:强预期高估值,转债如何赚取超额?
2025-08-19 14:44
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the convertible bond market and its relationship with the stock market, highlighting the performance of sectors such as electronics and AI, which are expected to drive further valuation increases in convertible bonds [1][4][23]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The stock market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, rising from 1.5 trillion to over 2 trillion daily, indicating new incremental capital entering the market [4][5]. 2. **Convertible Bond Valuation**: Current valuations of convertible bonds are high but are expected to potentially break historical highs due to strong market sentiment and increased buying from public funds [3][4]. 3. **Investment Shifts**: As some bank convertible bonds near maturity, funds are likely to flow into sectors like photovoltaic and chemical industries, which are seen as new destinations for bank incremental capital [5][23]. 4. **Investor Composition**: The proportion of major institutional investors has not significantly increased, while the share of individual and general institutions has decreased, indicating a shift towards private equity and brokerage participation [6]. 5. **Performance of Strategies**: Stock-oriented strategies have performed the best, with gene allocation strategies in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals showing strong results, while high yield and low allocation strategies have underperformed [7][8]. 6. **Convertible Bond Premiums**: Stock-oriented convertible bonds have a relatively balanced premium compared to other types, suggesting potential for further increases in valuation [9][23]. 7. **Absolute Return Strategies**: Investors are focusing on low-crowding indicators to identify under-the-radar convertible bonds, as well as high alpha strategies that emphasize low premium rates [10][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Sector Recommendations**: Recommended convertible bonds include those from the chemical sector such as Hangyang and Feng Er, as well as small-cap stocks like Keshun and Qifan Tianeng, which are expected to show excess return potential [2][11]. 2. **Banking and Steel Recommendations**: In the 90-120 yuan valuation range, banks like Industrial Bank and steel companies like Youfa are highlighted for their potential upside despite recent price adjustments [12][13]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the stock market remains strong, with expectations that convertible bond valuations will continue to rise as the stock market does not appear to have reached an extreme [9][23]. 4. **Future Trends**: The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of convertible bonds in relation to stock market movements, particularly in sectors with strong growth potential like AI and high-end manufacturing [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the convertible bond market and its interconnections with broader market trends and sector performances.
专题研究 | 二季度基金转债持仓:集中度下降,加仓小微盘
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 08:50
Group 1 - In Q2 2025, funds reduced their convertible bond holdings by 10.06 billion to 262.13 billion, but the proportion of convertible bonds held by funds increased by 0.83 percentage points to 39.45% [1][4] - The primary category of funds that increased their convertible bond holdings was the first-level bond funds, which added 6.16 billion, while second-level bond funds, mixed bond funds, and flexible allocation funds reduced their holdings [7][8] - The trend of passive holdings in convertible bonds continued to rise, with the proportion increasing by 0.36 percentage points to 16.24%, reaching a new high [4][9] Group 2 - In terms of industry, funds mainly increased their holdings in basic chemicals, non-bank financials, electronics, and automotive convertible bonds, while significantly reducing their holdings in bank, machinery, and power equipment convertible bonds [2][16] - The concentration of fund holdings in individual convertible bonds decreased, with significant reductions in bank convertible bonds due to the risk of forced redemption [17][22] - The funds actively increased their positions in sectors with technological breakthroughs and policy support, such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [20][22] Group 3 - The aging trend of convertible bond holdings continued, with the proportion of bonds with less than two years remaining increasing by 0.45 percentage points to 24.97% [16][18] - The first-level bond funds saw a significant increase in scale, with a 10.62% rise to 850.23 billion, while their convertible bond holdings increased by 9.26% [10][7] - The overall market for convertible bonds shrank significantly due to the accelerated exit of existing bonds, leading to a passive reduction in holdings by funds [4][9]
基金转债持仓季度点评:25Q2固收+基金持仓,转债供不应求
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-24 13:36
Performance Insights - In Q2 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 3.52%, outperforming pure bond funds which had returns of 0.96%[1] - The overall performance of typical fixed income + funds surpassed that of pure bond funds following a rapid market recovery after a sharp decline[1] Fund Size and Positioning - In Q2 2025, the size of convertible bond funds decreased by 3.67% (CNY 36 billion) to CNY 948 billion, while first and second-tier bond funds increased by CNY 800 billion and CNY 385 billion, reaching CNY 8,487 billion and CNY 8,077 billion respectively[2][20] - The convertible bond fund's position increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points to 91.41%, while first-tier bond funds saw a minor decrease of 0.11 percentage points to 8.54%[24] Market Dynamics - The decline in convertible bond positions was primarily due to passive reductions, as fund managers struggled to find suitable investment opportunities amidst high demand and rising prices[3][26] - The high valuation of convertible bonds has weakened the common low-price investment strategy, leading to a constrained capacity for bottom-layer investment strategies[3][26] Sector Allocation - Public funds focused on increasing allocations in financial securities and mid-to-low priced cyclical consumer sectors, while reducing holdings in banks and other sectors facing forced redemption[4][37] - The top holdings included financial sector bonds, with significant increases in holdings of bonds from banks and non-bank financial institutions[4][37] Investment Strategy - The demand for convertible bonds remains strong, suggesting a continued bullish stance as long as underlying stocks do not show a downward trend[4] - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, combining large-cap bank stocks with policy-driven domestic demand sectors and undervalued technology growth stocks[4]