Core Viewpoint - The banking sector shows resilience amid market volatility and concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs, with significant capital inflows and a wave of share buybacks from bank executives signaling confidence in asset quality [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Capital Inflows - On April 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.16%, with a net inflow of 9.58 billion yuan into the banking sector, making it one of the top five industries for capital inflow that day [1]. - Despite the positive market movement, concerns about bank stocks persist due to the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Regional Differentiation in Tariff Impact - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the banking industry exhibits significant regional differentiation, with banks like Qingdao Bank reporting limited exposure to U.S. trade, while coastal banks with high foreign trade dependence, such as Ningbo Bank, saw stock price declines exceeding 8% [2]. - Economic structure differences explain this regional disparity, as state-owned banks and those focused on domestic demand have a retail business share exceeding 40%, while some coastal city commercial banks have over 30% of loans to foreign trade enterprises [2]. Group 3: Policy Support and Loan Composition - Policy measures are providing a buffer against regional risks, with consumer loans accounting for 6.9% of new loans in 2024, allowing banks with a retail focus to offset declines in foreign trade lending [3]. - Qingdao Bank reported an 18% growth in consumer loans for 2024, significantly outpacing the growth of corporate loans, indicating a strategic shift to bolster resilience against external shocks [3]. Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - A recent wave of share buybacks in the banking sector includes announcements from Huaxia Bank and Jiangsu Bank, reflecting confidence in asset quality and a belief that the current price-to-book ratio of 0.57 offers a safety margin [4]. - Despite some institutions not recognizing long-term investment value in Huaxia Bank, its stock outperformed the industry index by 3.2 percentage points over ten trading days, indicating active market interest [4]. Group 5: Valuation and Dividend Strategies - Shanghai Bank's commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years, along with similar announcements from other banks, marks a shift from passive defense to proactive management of market valuation [5]. - This strategy aims to address the long-standing undervaluation of bank stocks, which have been trading below net asset value [5]. Group 6: Defensive Attributes and Interest Margin - The banking sector's defensive characteristics were reaffirmed during market volatility, with bank stocks experiencing a decline of only 4.67% compared to a 12.5% drop in the ChiNext Index [6]. - Qingdao Bank reported a net interest margin of 1.73%, ranking eighth among 23 A-share listed banks, while the six major banks saw a narrowing decline in interest margins to within 10 basis points [6][7]. Group 7: High Dividend Strategy - The current dividend yield of the banking sector, compared to the 10-year government bond yield, has created a rare investment opportunity, with the spread reaching 220 basis points [7]. - For instance, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has a dividend yield of 5.68% with a price-to-book ratio of 0.59, suggesting a potential upside of 35% if valuations revert to historical averages [7].