Well, let's go from chips to the credit markets. Wall Street's watching closely as the Treasury hits the market with its latest 30-year bond auction. Investors are parsing demand for long-term debt amid rising deficits, shifting rate expectations, and of course, the economic outlook is uncertain.Rick Santelli joins us now from Chicago. Rick, what do you have. >> Yeah, you know, there is a lot to unpack there.Let's start at the beginning and let the charts do some talking. If you look at twos and tens since ...

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Japan’s opposition parties played down concerns over plans to cut taxes that have contributed to recent rises in bond yields ahead of Sunday’s upper house election. https://t.co/qekmOwRWYF ...

An intramarket sector spread is used to compare the bond yields of different companies in the same industry. Learn how it can help you understand the market. https://t.co/t0FBywgkxk ...

Market Trends - Germany's 30-year bond yields reached the highest point since 2023 [1] - Investors are selling long-end debt due to concerns over tariffs and extra government spending [1]

Ghana’s domestic bond yields extended declines on Thursday after the West African nation reported inflation dropped to the lowest in more than three years. https://t.co/B3v0xhdVjF ...

Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. On today's show, the US agrees a trade deal with Vietnam, cutting tariffs on Vietnamese exports from 46% to 20%. Stocks in Asia fluctuate on the news, after the S&P 500 set yet another record. Traders now look ahead to the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a 12-month S&P 500 return forecast of 10%, targeting a level of 6500 [2][3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 rose by 2% this week, driven by a delay in EU tariffs and a favorable US court ruling regarding tariffs [2][3]. - Rising bond yields, particularly the nominal 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.4%, are a significant concern for equity investors [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the relationship between bond yields and equities is influenced more by the drivers of yield changes rather than the absolute level of rates [2][7]. - Elevated bond yields are expected to constrain potential S&P 500 valuation expansion, with a 100 basis point change in real Treasury yields correlating to a 7% change in S&P 500 forward P/E [2][27]. - Most S&P 500 debt is fixed-rate with maturities beyond 2028, minimizing the risk to earnings from elevated bond yields [32][33]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The nominal 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to end 2025 at 4.5% and slightly increase to 4.55% in 2026, reflecting below-trend economic growth and above-target inflation [18][19]. - The report indicates that the market's focus on US fiscal outlook remains critical, especially following recent legislative developments [19][21]. Equity Performance - The report highlights that equities typically perform well when bond yields rise due to improved growth expectations, but struggle when yields increase due to fiscal concerns [7][14]. - The S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value, supported by strong corporate fundamentals, particularly among large-cap stocks [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid stocks with weak balance sheets, as these have underperformed compared to those with strong balance sheets [40][41]. - The report suggests rebalancing baskets of Weak Balance Sheet and Strong Balance Sheet stocks, as well as Interest Rate Sensitive stocks, which have outperformed amid rising bond yields [40][41].

_Before trading options, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options here: https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document_ Tony discusses the current trade peace and the rise in US and Japanese bond yields. He then shares a trade idea for an AI-powered software company and looks back to a recent trade for a video communications company. Questions? Drop them below 👇 and we’ll reply right in the comments. - For more about In the Money: https://w ...

Market Overview - The current stock market environment is markedly different from historical trends, necessitating investors to be vigilant about global market movements to capitalize on opportunities and avoid losses [1][2] - Investors should focus on a broader range of asset classes rather than solely tracking indices like the S&P 500 to avoid being misled by daily market fluctuations [2] Company Analysis: NVIDIA - NVIDIA's stock price is currently at $135.36, reflecting a 3.10% increase, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $195.95 [3][4] - The forward P/E ratio of NVIDIA is no longer aligned with its historical performance, indicating potential trouble for investors as it suggests a lack of confidence in future earnings growth [5][6] - Analysts have noted that higher bond yields could negatively impact NVIDIA's future earnings due to tighter financing conditions, which may lead customers to reduce capital expenditures [11][12] Comparison with Other Assets - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF is currently priced at $206.23, showing a 1.81% increase, and may offer a better risk-to-reward setup compared to NVIDIA [7][8] - Small-cap stocks have underperformed relative to NVIDIA and the S&P 500, but they present an opportunity for recovery and less volatility in adverse market conditions [8] Bond Market Insights - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is priced at $85.47, with a yield of 4.42%, indicating rising yields as bond prices decline [10][11] - The increase in bond yields necessitates a reevaluation of stock market valuations, particularly for high-growth companies like NVIDIA [11][12] Energy Sector Considerations - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is currently at $82.34, having underperformed the S&P 500 by up to 20% over the past year, suggesting a lack of anticipated business and consumer activity [14] - A potential shift in monetary policy may lead to a rotation from expensive stocks to smaller businesses that benefit from lower bond yields [15]