_Before trading options, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options here: https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document_ Tony discusses the current trade peace and the rise in US and Japanese bond yields. He then shares a trade idea for an AI-powered software company and looks back to a recent trade for a video communications company. Questions? Drop them below 👇 and we’ll reply right in the comments. - For more about In the Money: https://w ...

Market Overview - The current stock market environment is markedly different from historical trends, necessitating investors to be vigilant about global market movements to capitalize on opportunities and avoid losses [1][2] - Investors should focus on a broader range of asset classes rather than solely tracking indices like the S&P 500 to avoid being misled by daily market fluctuations [2] Company Analysis: NVIDIA - NVIDIA's stock price is currently at $135.36, reflecting a 3.10% increase, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $195.95 [3][4] - The forward P/E ratio of NVIDIA is no longer aligned with its historical performance, indicating potential trouble for investors as it suggests a lack of confidence in future earnings growth [5][6] - Analysts have noted that higher bond yields could negatively impact NVIDIA's future earnings due to tighter financing conditions, which may lead customers to reduce capital expenditures [11][12] Comparison with Other Assets - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF is currently priced at $206.23, showing a 1.81% increase, and may offer a better risk-to-reward setup compared to NVIDIA [7][8] - Small-cap stocks have underperformed relative to NVIDIA and the S&P 500, but they present an opportunity for recovery and less volatility in adverse market conditions [8] Bond Market Insights - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is priced at $85.47, with a yield of 4.42%, indicating rising yields as bond prices decline [10][11] - The increase in bond yields necessitates a reevaluation of stock market valuations, particularly for high-growth companies like NVIDIA [11][12] Energy Sector Considerations - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is currently at $82.34, having underperformed the S&P 500 by up to 20% over the past year, suggesting a lack of anticipated business and consumer activity [14] - A potential shift in monetary policy may lead to a rotation from expensive stocks to smaller businesses that benefit from lower bond yields [15]

Market Overview - Market indexes showed resilience against high bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield at +5.05%, the highest in 18 years, but moderated from previous spikes [1] - Major indexes finished flat, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 remaining unchanged, while the Nasdaq closed up +53 points (+0.28%) [2] - Despite being in the red over the past five trading days, the indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month [2] Quarterly Earnings Summary - **Workday (WDAY)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.23 per share on $2.4 billion in sales, beating previous figures of $1.99 per share and $2.22 billion. However, shares fell -5% due to steady guidance and reduced capex spending [3] - **Deckers Outdoor (DECK)**: Earnings of $1.00 per share exceeded the Zacks consensus of 57 cents, with revenues of $1.02 billion surpassing expectations of $988.6 million. Shares dropped -11% due to lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and full-year guidance held back due to tariff issues [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Surpassed earnings expectations with $11.65 per share against a consensus of $10.89, and revenues of $7.75 billion exceeding the $7.54 billion forecast. Shares rose +5% following a significant increase in next-quarter guidance driven by Credit Karma growth [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Beat earnings estimates by 4 cents with $1.47 per share on $4.98 billion in revenues, slightly above consensus. Same-store sales were flat but improved from a projected decline. Shares fell -9% due to lower next-quarter earnings guidance attributed to tariff pressures [5] - **AutoDesk (ADSK)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.29 per share, beating the anticipated $2.14, with revenues of $1.63 billion slightly above the forecast of $1.61 billion. Shares gained +5% due to positive next-quarter guidance [6]

The stock market dropped sharply on Monday as tariff concerns, a falling dollar, and rising yields hit the stock market. Consumer goods companies look like they're facing a very uncertain year. The most notable moves on Monday came in home improvement retail, consumer retail, and fashion. Home Depot (HD -2.22%) dropped 3.6% on Monday, Lowe's Companies (LOW -2.83%) was down 2.8%, Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT -2.23%) fell 2.6%, and Deckers Outdoor (DECK -1.93%) had dropped 2% by market close. The bond market is e ...

Economic Indicators - The January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report shows Personal Income increased by 0.9%, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.4% [2] - Personal Spending decreased by 0.2%, contrasting with an expected increase of 0.1% and a prior month's increase of 0.7% [2] - Real Spending also declined by 0.5%, marking the lowest spending figures in nearly four years, while the Savings Rate rose from 3.5% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Metrics - The PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for both headline and core metrics, aligning with expectations [4] - Year-over-year, the headline PCE decreased to 2.5% from 2.6%, and core PCE decreased to 2.6% from an upwardly revised 2.9% [4] - These figures are viewed positively as they indicate a reduction in inflation pressures, which is favorable for the Federal Reserve [5] Trade and Inventory Data - The January Trade Deficit reached an all-time low of -$153 billion, down from -$122 billion the previous month, indicating significant trade imbalances [6] - Advanced Retail Inventories showed a slight improvement, decreasing by 0.1%, while Advanced Wholesale Inventories increased by 0.7% [7] Bond Market Trends - Bond yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield dropping from 4.77% to 4.26%, and the 2-year yield falling from 4.40% to 4.06% [9] - This decline in yields suggests a cautious outlook on economic growth and may indicate potential for future interest rate cuts [10]