Shoppers rushing to get the best Black Friday deals. Should retailers expect to see bigger instore crowds compared with online. Well, joining us now is Lightseed founder and CEO Dax Dilva.Lightseed is a payment processor company helping businesses manage sales, inventory, and omni channel commerce. Dax, it's great to have you on. Welcome.>> Thanks. Uh, thanks for having me on. >> So, what are you seeing so far this Black Friday weekend.>> I think there's a lot of enthusiasm for for a Black Friday Cyber Mond ...

Core Insights - Retailers are adapting to the affordability crisis this holiday season by adjusting pricing strategies and focusing on lower-priced items to attract consumers [1][3][7] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has dropped to 51 points in November, marking the second-lowest score since 1952, indicating significant economic concerns [2] - The decline in sentiment is attributed to worries about jobs, affordability, and tariffs, leading consumers to prioritize value and essential spending [4] Retailer Strategies - Retailers are increasingly investing in lower-priced items and adjusting their product assortments to cater to budget-conscious consumers [3] - Target has lowered prices on thousands of everyday food and essential items to help families manage their budgets amid declining sales and profit guidance [4][5] Market Conditions - Companies like Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing reduced demand for larger home improvement projects due to consumer uncertainty, while Sally Beauty Holdings reports shoppers are leaning towards value, especially among low-income consumers [6] - Retailers are ramping up promotional efforts to attract cautious consumers, emphasizing affordability and value in their marketing strategies [7]

Consumer Spending & Market Trends - Overall consumer spending declined, but high-end consumer spending remained resilient [3] - The top 40% of the company's customer base experienced double-digit per capita revenue growth in the last quarter [4] - Expectation of continued trend of buying high-end ready-to-wear and fine jewelry [5] - "Silent luxury" (high-end, logo-free products) has been popular, but there's a potential comeback of color and embellishment [7][8] E-commerce & Trade Landscape - Changes in policies for goods made in Europe, Asia (China, India) impacted consumer sentiment [9][10] - De Minimis was not a big threshold for the company's high-end business, as most shipments were over 800 USD [11] - Stability in stock markets, real estate, and commodities has driven positive consumer sentiment [11] Inventory & Supply Chain - Maintaining a balance between demand and inventory levels is crucial to avoid discounting in the luxury industry [12][13] - There was oversupply in 2023, but the industry has since improved calibration between supply and demand [13] - Full-price business has picked up tremendously over the last eight quarters, indicating healthy margins [13]

here with her top retail plays into year end is Bernstein's Anisha Sherman. Anisha, great to uh great to have you on. Before we get to some of your favorites, I wonder what you're hearing from some of the companies that are recently reporting the retail industry uh about the tone of spending, the the pace of discounting and things like that into the into the final four weeks here.>> Sure. Thanks for having me on. So, we are in the thick of retail earnings at the moment.We've had a lot of big prints. We've g ...

Retail Industry Overview - Retail earnings reports indicate that comparable store sales and traffic have exceeded expectations, with notable Q3 performance driven by pricing strategies [2][3] - Retailers across various segments have increased prices in response to tariffs, experiencing less price resistance than anticipated, which has positively impacted comparable sales [3] Consumer Sentiment and Guidance - Retailers targeting middle and lower-income consumers are cautious due to declining consumer sentiment, leading to conservative Q4 guidance [4] - There is a noticeable bifurcation in consumer sentiment between higher and lower-income groups, affecting retail strategies [7] Company-Specific Insights: Burlington Stores - Burlington is identified as the smallest and lowest quality player in the off-price retail sector, facing challenges compared to competitors like TJX and Ross Stores, which are more established [5] - Burlington's recent performance showed a modest increase in comparable sales (+1%), while competitors reported significantly higher growth (+6% to +7%) [6] Investment Outlook - The market is expected to favor companies perceived as safer investments amid consumer risk, particularly those catering to higher-income consumers, such as TJX [7][8] - TJX is viewed as a strong investment option due to its quality and resilience in the current market environment [6][8]

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment has significantly declined, reaching a record low of 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, and down 29% year-over-year [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economy's health has led investors to favor low-beta, defensive stocks, particularly in the consumer staples sector [1][2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported a final reading of 51 for consumer sentiment in November, slightly up from a preliminary reading of 50.3 [4] - The decline in consumer sentiment is attributed to a slowing labor market and high inflation, which pressures consumer spending [6] - Long-term inflation expectations decreased from 3.9% in October to 3.4% in November [5] Investment Focus - In the current market environment, investors are advised to consider low-beta stocks with high dividend yields and favorable Zacks Ranks to mitigate market volatility [2][3] - Recommended stocks include: - **Entergy Corporation (ETR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.9%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.63, and a dividend yield of 2.73% [9] - **CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 9.3%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.60, and a dividend yield of 2.22% [13] - **John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 18.1%, Zacks Rank 1, beta of 0.37, and a dividend yield of 1.28% [15] - **Universal Corporation (UVV)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 2.4%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.73, and a dividend yield of 6.19% [16]

Core Insights - Best Buy raised its profit and sales expectations ahead of the holiday shopping season due to a strong third quarter performance, with comparable-store sales increasing by 2.7%, marking the largest gain in four years [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of offering a broad range of products across various price points to attract a diverse customer base, particularly lower-income shoppers [2] - Despite economic uncertainties and inflation, consumer spending remains resilient, with shoppers focusing on value rather than just the lowest prices [2][4] Company Performance - Best Buy's strong quarterly results indicate a positive trend, with sales driven by categories such as computing, gaming, and mobile phones [1] - The company has managed to absorb some inflationary pressures and has diversified its supply networks to mitigate the impact of tariffs, applying price increases to only a limited number of products [4] Consumer Behavior - The top 40% of U.S. consumers are responsible for two-thirds of overall consumption, while the remaining 60% are more cautious in their spending, focusing on essential purchases and seeking the best deals [5] - Shoppers are willing to spend on innovative products and replacements for older gadgets, indicating a willingness to invest when necessary [3][5] Economic Context - The retail environment is influenced by broader economic factors, including tariffs and consumer sentiment, which have been affected by recent government shutdowns and inflation [3][4] - Employment trends are being closely monitored, particularly for consumers living paycheck to paycheck, as this demographic's spending behavior is crucial for overall retail performance [6]

Core Insights - The Consumer Sentiment Index averaged 58.7 through the first 11 months of 2025, indicating it may be the worst year on record for consumer sentiment, surpassing the previous low of 59 in 2022 due to high inflation [1][7] - In November, the index recorded a measurement of 51, the second lowest in history, reflecting significant consumer concerns about the economy [2][7] - Wall Street analysts expect a 20% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year, but this optimism may be misplaced given the weak jobs market and rising inflation [3][10] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in April to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years [3] - Job additions averaged 123,000 per month from January to April but dropped to 39,000 from May to September, the lowest five-month average since 2010, excluding the pandemic [4] - CPI inflation increased from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, with estimates suggesting it remained at 3% in October and November [4][8] Market Valuation - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that equity prices are highly valued, with the S&P 500 trading at 21.5 times forward earnings, above the 10-year average of 18.7 [6][11] - Despite a recent decline of over 4% from its record high, the S&P 500 still trades at a premium, raising concerns about potential market corrections [11] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of GDP, is expected to decline due to widespread pessimism, potentially leading to lower forward earnings estimates from analysts [9] - Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, up from 3% in September, indicating growing consumer frustration with high prices and stagnant incomes [8] Investor Sentiment - Bullish sentiment among investors dropped from 45.9% to 32.6% in recent weeks, reflecting a decrease in optimism regarding stock market performance [13] - If the economic fallout from tariffs leads to downward revisions in earnings estimates, the current bull market may be at risk [14]

Core Insights - The American consumer is showing signs of caution as they approach the holiday season, influenced by a softening job market and persistent inflation [1][6] Retailer Performance - Target Corp. reported earnings indicating a reduction in prices at the expense of profits, with customers pulling back on nonessential purchases like apparel and home goods [2] - Home Depot Inc. saw a decline of over 5% in its stock, the largest drop since March, after it lowered its outlook due to homeowners delaying big-ticket purchases [2] - Walmart Inc. experienced a stock rally, but its growth was primarily driven by grocery sales and mid-tier customers seeking bargains, reflecting consumer skittishness [3] Consumer Sentiment - Reports from various retailers, including Gap Inc., Ross Stores Inc., and TJX Cos., indicate that consumers are increasingly questioning discretionary purchases and opting for essentials to manage their budgets [4] - Wealthier Americans, who have traditionally supported economic growth, are also becoming more cost-conscious, as highlighted by a significant drop in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge [4] Economic Implications - The persistence of high prices and weakening incomes is causing frustration among consumers, which poses challenges for an economy reliant on consumer spending [5] - Concerns are rising that corporate revenue growth may slow and profit margins could be squeezed as consumer sentiment declines and the economy softens [7] - Retailer stocks have been lagging behind the broader market, particularly as lower-end consumers face inflationary pressures and a challenging job market [7]

Core Insights - The dollar index reached a 5.5-month high but ended the day with a slight increase of +0.03% due to mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials and consumer sentiment data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's US November consumer sentiment index was revised upward by +0.7 to 51.0, surpassing expectations of 50.6 [3] - The US November S&P manufacturing PMI decreased by -0.6 to 51.9, aligning closely with expectations of 52.0 [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for a rate cut in the near term, citing increased downside risks to employment and eased upside risks to inflation [4] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed that maintaining steady interest rates is appropriate for now, given the likelihood of sustained elevated inflation [4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that further rate cuts would be difficult unless clear evidence of faster-than-expected inflation decline or a cooling labor market emerges [5] Market Expectations - The market is pricing in a 66% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will implement a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [5]