Q3 2025 Performance - Celanese reported Q3 2025 Free Cash Flow of $375 million[9] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $1.34[9] - Adjusted EBIT for Engineered Materials was $200 million, and for Acetyl Chain was $187 million[9] Q4 2025 Outlook - Celanese anticipates an Adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $0.85 - $1.00 for Q4 2025[14] - The company projects Adjusted EBIT guidance for Engineered Materials to be between $165 million and $175 million, and for Acetyl Chain to be between $165 million and $180 million[15] Strategic Actions and Financial Health - Celanese is on track to achieve a Free Cash Flow target range of $700 million to $800 million for FY2025[27] - The company has a strong liquidity position, including $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, along with a $1.75 billion undrawn revolving credit facility[33] - Celanese plans to use the net proceeds from the Micromax divestiture, valued at approximately $500 million, to pay down debt[22] - Celanese expects cost reduction actions to deliver $120 million in cost savings in 2025, with potential incremental opportunities of $50 million - $100 million[38]

Operational Performance - Sales volume reached 3.2 million tons for pulp, compared to 3.3 million tons in 2Q25 and 2.6 million tons in 3Q24[6] - Paper and packaging sales volume was 372 thousand tons, up from 348 thousand tons in 2Q25 and 295 thousand tons in 3Q24[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was R$5.2 billion, down from R$6.1 billion in 2Q25 and R$6.5 billion in 3Q24[6] - Operating cash generation was R$3.4 billion, compared to R$4.1 billion in 2Q25 and R$4.4 billion in 3Q24[6] - Cash cost ex-downtimes decreased to R$801/ton, from R$832/ton in 2Q25 and R$863/ton in 3Q24[6] Financial Management - Liquidity stood at US$6.5 billion, up from US$5.9 billion in 2Q25 and US$5.7 billion in 3Q24[7] - Net debt remained at US$13.0 billion, consistent with 2Q25 and slightly up from US$12.9 billion in 3Q24[7] - Leverage increased to 3.3x in US$, compared to 3.1x in both 2Q25 and 3Q24[7] Paper and Packaging Business - US operations recorded positive performance since acquisition[8] - Paper sales in Brazilian operations (domestic) reached 200 thousand tons in 3Q24, 173 thousand tons in 2Q25 and 186 thousand tons in 3Q25[9] Pulp Business - Production volumes were fully sold in the quarter[11] - Average net price in the export market was $670/ton in 3Q24, $555/ton in 2Q25 and $524/ton in 3Q25[12] Financial Strategy - Liability management extended the average term of debt without increasing the average cost, maintaining it at 5.0% p.a. in US$[16,18] - Cash flow hedging strategy covers 64% of the FX gap with a notional value of US$6.0 billion[21]

RT Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)JPMorgan predicting bitcoin at $170k in next 6-12mo, says perp deleveraging is behind us and that's it undervalued vs gold historically, which implies "significant upside next 6-12mo" https://t.co/CaVVWH6L42 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predict Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, supported by recent market corrections and comparisons to gold [1][4]. Market Correction and Deleveraging - The crypto market has corrected approximately 20% from recent highs, with the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures now largely over [2]. - The ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization has normalized, indicating a stabilization in the market [2]. ETF Redemptions and Market Sentiment - Recent ETF redemptions were modest compared to strong inflows earlier in October, suggesting a resilient market [3]. - Concerns regarding the $120 million Balancer exploit briefly affected sentiment but did not lead to lasting structural stress [3]. Price Target Justification - JPMorgan's $170,000 target for Bitcoin is based on its volatility relative to gold, with the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio dropping below 2.0 [4]. - To align with private-sector gold investment of approximately $6.2 trillion, Bitcoin's market cap of $2.1 trillion would need to increase by about 67% [4]. Institutional Interest and Market Outlook - The recent correction has improved Bitcoin's long-term setup, making volatility-adjusted returns appear more favorable [5]. - Bitcoin is viewed as undervalued relative to gold, with a potential strong recovery phase anticipated in the next six months [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 revenues of $409 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.8% on a pro forma basis, with adjusted EBITDA of $118.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29%, which is an improvement of 130 basis points compared to the previous year [25][26] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.30, reflecting a 15.4% increase year-over-year, driven by greater scale and lower interest expenses [26][34] - The retention rate improved to 97%, up from 96% in Q2, indicating strong customer satisfaction and loyalty [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 9% growth in combined upsell, cross-sell, and new logo revenues in Q3, with a strong performance across various verticals [25][29] - The healthcare vertical experienced a slight decline due to uncertainties with Medicare and Medicaid funding, but this was offset by growth in other sectors such as retail, e-commerce, and transportation [9][10] - The company signed a significant five-year contract renewal with a top customer, expected to generate over $100 million in total revenues, with a portion guaranteed through minimum annual commitments [7][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue growth continued for the sixth consecutive quarter, with the U.K. showing strong performance and improving trends in the APAC region [10] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with hiring growth consistently flat, influenced by factors such as government policies and economic uncertainty [10][11] - October order volumes showed positive trends, aligning with Q3 performance, indicating stable hiring activity among enterprise customers [52][53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its FA 5.0 strategy, focusing on enhancing its product offerings and improving client retention through technology and customer-centric approaches [6][20] - The integration of the Sterling acquisition is progressing ahead of schedule, with increased synergy targets raised from $50 million to a range of $65-$80 million [19][28] - The company is strategically investing in AI and digital identity solutions to address emerging risks and enhance customer value propositions [12][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about long-term industry dynamics, particularly in healthcare, despite current challenges [10][11] - The company anticipates that base growth will remain slightly negative into 2026, but expects overall revenue growth through upsell, cross-sell, and new logos [11][32] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a flexible cost structure and a diverse revenue mix to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties [37] Other Important Information - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, positioning itself as a leader in the digital identity space [15][24] - The company has hosted multiple user conferences globally to engage with customers and gather insights on their needs and industry risks [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about upsell/cross-sell and new logos going into Q4 and 2026? - Management expects Q4 contributions from new logos and upsell/cross-sell to be in line with or better than historical averages, with a strong pipeline of large deals [39][40] Question: Do you see traditional employment background checks being disintermediated by AI? - Management views AI as a beneficial tool rather than a competitive threat, emphasizing its role in enhancing digital identity checks and reducing identity fraud risks [42][44] Question: Can you provide more details on the $100 million contract renewal? - This contract includes guaranteed minimums, which management sees as a trend for future contracts, aiming to increase stickiness with clients [45][46] Question: What are the expectations for synergy realization in 2026? - Management anticipates significant synergy realization over the next year, with a target of $65-$80 million, and expects EPS accretion to continue as synergies are realized [58][59]

Q3 2025 Performance Highlights - Revenues reached $409 million, a 3.8% year-over-year growth assuming the Sterling acquisition occurred on 1/1/2023[20, 22] - Adjusted EBITDA was $118 million, resulting in a 29% Adjusted EBITDA Margin[20] - Adjusted Diluted EPS was $030[20] - Adjusted Operating Cash Flow reached $805 million after adjusting for $81 million of Sterling acquisition and integration costs[22, 52] Synergy Realization and Financial Outlook - $52 million in run rate synergies were actioned as of September 30, 2025[44] - The company is targeting total run rate synergies of $65 million to $80 million within two years post-closing[43, 77] - Full year 2025 revenue guidance is refined to $1535 billion to $1570 billion[61] - Full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is refined to $430 million to $440 million, with an approximate 28% margin[61] Strategic Focus and Growth Drivers - Retention reached 97%, up from 96% in Q2[23, 41] - Go-to-market success resulted in combined new logo, upsell, and cross-sell contribution of 9%[41] - The company is focused on FA 50 strategy, actioning best-of-breed product and platform approach to accelerate new logo, upsell and cross-sell, and enhance customer value proposition[17]

Core Insights - The decline in Bitcoin futures is attributed to deleveraging activities, indicating a significant reduction in leveraged positions within the market [1] - On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin appears to be cheaper than gold, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in the cryptocurrency sector [1] Group 1 - Deleveraging in Bitcoin futures has led to a notable decline in its value [1] - Bitcoin's current pricing, when adjusted for volatility, shows it is more affordable compared to gold [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin recently broke below its 200-day moving average, influenced by macroeconomic headwinds, but there is potential for a rebound according to market analyst Tom Lee [1][2] - The recent decline coincided with significant deleveraging in the crypto market, particularly highlighted by the event on October 10th, which was noted as the largest in history [2][3] - Despite the current market challenges, broader financial indicators suggest a positive outlook for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, with historical trends indicating a constructive environment following a strong stock market performance [3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown and a hawkish Federal Reserve are identified as key factors exerting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [2] - The strength of the U.S. dollar is also recognized as a significant macro headwind for the crypto market [2] Sentiment and Predictions - Retail sentiment remains bullish, with prediction markets indicating a 64% chance for Bitcoin to revisit $115,000 before potentially dropping to $85,000, and a 63% chance for Ethereum to reach $4,500 before falling to $2,500 [4] - Recent trading data shows Bitcoin and Ethereum prices at $103,214 and $3,403, reflecting increases of 1.3% and 2.6% over the past 24 hours, respectively [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $177 million, a $14 million increase compared to Q2, driven by a 24% increase in copper concentrate sales at Tucumã and stronger copper and gold prices [17] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $77.1 million in Q3, with adjusted net income attributable to owners of the company at $27.9 million, or $0.27 per share [17] - Liquidity position at quarter end was $111 million, including $66.3 million in cash and cash equivalents [18] - Net debt leverage ratio improved to 1.9 times at the end of Q3, down from 2.1 times in Q2 and 2.5 times at the end of 2022 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated copper production set a record in Q3, with significant contributions from Tucumã, which saw a nearly 20% increase for the second consecutive quarter [10] - At Caraíba, plant throughput levels reached a quarterly volume record, with a decline in grade as expected due to a strategic shift in ore sourcing [11] - Tucumã's production increased by 19% in Q3, driven by a ramp-up in throughput, while Xavantina's production rose by approximately 17% due to mechanization efforts [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to sell between 10,000 and 15,000 tons of gold concentrate during Q4 2025, with operating costs estimated at approximately $300-$500 per ounce of gold [5] - The average quarterly production of gold at Xavantina was 7,000 ounces in the first half of the year, with a production of nearly 7,000 ounces in October alone [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging its balance sheet and expects to accelerate this process through gold concentrate sales [6][18] - A significant emphasis is placed on operational excellence, health and safety, and optimizing production across all operations [9][10] - The company is also advancing long-term growth initiatives at Furnas, with ongoing drilling and technical work to support future development [15][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing transformation and improvements across operations, with expectations for Q4 to be the strongest production quarter of the year [10][12] - The company is addressing inflationary pressures in Brazil through various initiatives, including foreign exchange hedging [22][24] - Management highlighted the importance of mechanization and operational improvements in driving productivity and safety [41][46] Other Important Information - The company has commenced shipping gold concentrate, resulting in its first invoice, and expects to continue this momentum into Q4 [5][19] - A foreign exchange hedge program was in place with a total notional position of $290 million, resulting in a realized gain of $2 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: On Xavantina, regarding the remaining 80% of the gold concentrate that has not been sampled yet, what assumptions can be made? - Management indicated that while excitement exists about the potential volume, it is too early to provide specific estimates for the remaining concentrate [20][21] Question: Have there been any significant labor contractor inflation pressures in Brazil? - Management acknowledged inflationary pressures in Brazil but noted efforts to mitigate these through longer-term contracts and hedging strategies [22][24] Question: What is the timeline for sampling the remaining gold concentrate stockpile? - Management stated that the focus is on selling the current volume before continuing sampling, with updates expected quarterly [33][34] Question: How is the company addressing the tailings filtration circuit at Tucumã? - Management confirmed ongoing improvements and the addition of a mobile filter press to enhance capacity [36][37] Question: What are the expectations for mining rates and grades at Xavantina moving into next year? - Management highlighted significant increases in mining rates and grades due to mechanization, with expectations for continued high performance [41][44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSN achieved a 26% growth in EBITDA, reaching BRL 3.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27%, marking a quarter-on-quarter gain of 330 basis points [5] - The company's leverage ratio decreased to 3.1 times from 3.5 times at the end of the previous year, indicating improved financial discipline [5][14] - Adjusted cash flow was negative at BRL 815 million, an improvement from the previous quarter's negative BRL 1.4 billion, reflecting the impact of high interest rates and working capital consumption [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In mining, CSN shipped over 12 million tons for the first time, with a 5% increase in sales volume compared to the previous quarter, and a 57% growth in EBITDA to over BRL 1.9 billion [6][20] - The cement segment recorded the second-largest sales volume in CSN's history, with over 3.6 million tons sold, achieving an EBITDA of BRL 388 million and a margin of 29% [10][23] - The logistics segment reached a record EBITDA of BRL 550 million with a margin above 35%, driven by increased cargo handling efficiency [10][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel market remains pressured by imported materials, with CSN being the only company to show growth in freights and EBITDA despite adverse conditions [7] - The cement market showed resilience with increased consumption, particularly benefiting from the Minha Casa Minha Vida program and high employment levels in the real estate sector [9][21] - The company noted a recovery in iron ore prices, which positively impacted profitability, with prices above $100 per ton [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CSN is focused on operational efficiency and cost control, with a strategy to maximize production while maintaining competitive pricing [27][28] - The company is pursuing strategic projects, including the CSN Infrastructure Project, which aims to enhance liquidity and reduce leverage [34][37] - Management emphasized the need for protective measures against imported goods to support local production and competitiveness [29][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the steel industry's recovery, citing improved price dynamics and anti-dumping measures [9][41] - The company anticipates continued operational improvements across all segments, with a focus on maintaining strong EBITDA margins [34][46] - There is an expectation for the fourth quarter to show improved performance, with a target of returning to double-digit EBITDA margins [43][54] Other Important Information - CSN reported a 13% increase in working capital compared to the previous quarter, reflecting improved commercial accuracy [13] - The company achieved the lowest steel production costs in four years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][19] - CSN's ESG initiatives have been recognized, with significant advancements in safety, environmental sustainability, and diversity [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on leverage and divestment strategy - Management confirmed a deleveraging process, reducing leverage from 3.5 to 3.1 times, and highlighted the importance of strategic projects like CSN Infrastructure for future liquidity [33][34] Question: Insights on commercial strategy and fourth-quarter outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by high competition and import penetration but emphasized a focus on value over volume, with expectations for improved margins in the fourth quarter [38][39] Question: Addressing cash burn and financial initiatives - Management reported a reduction in cash burn from BRL 4 billion to BRL 800 million, attributing this to better operational results and cost controls [44][45] Question: Updates on anti-dumping measures and market conditions - Management expressed optimism regarding upcoming anti-dumping measures, particularly for galvanized products, and noted a robust demand in the domestic market despite high import levels [50][52]