Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have shown strong performance this year, attributed to dollar weakness and improved economic policies [1] Group 1 - The fund manager highlights that the strength of emerging markets is partly due to the depreciation of the dollar [1] - Better economic policies in these markets have also contributed to their robust performance [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.33% at a 2-week low, influenced by the strength of the yen and expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - The US Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 4-month low of 48.2, weaker than the expected increase to 49.0, indicating economic contraction [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The dollar is under pressure due to speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, which is seen as bearish for the dollar [2] - Hassett's nomination could raise concerns about Fed independence, as he supports President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Policy - The EUR/USD is up by +0.32% at a 2-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and hawkish comments from ECB officials [4] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that Eurozone interest rates are currently in a good place, indicating a divergence in central bank policies [4][5] - The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 49.6, marking the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months [5]

January WTI crude oil (CLF26) today is up +0.62 (+1.06%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0316 (+1.73%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied to 1-week highs today as the decline in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1.5-week low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, the concern that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue supports crude prices.  Russian President Putin was vague when asked about US President Trump's proposal for ending the war, and European Commission Vice President Kallas said ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,046.64 tons of gold as of November 12, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.28 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the $4,200 per ounce mark, driven by a weak dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 12, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings stand at 1,046.64 tons, marking an increase of 0.28 tons from the prior day [7]. - The gold ETF holdings have increased for two consecutive trading days [7]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On November 12, spot gold prices reached a high of $4,211.59 per ounce before closing at $4,195.46, reflecting a gain of $68.84 or 1.67% [7]. - Gold prices experienced a brief sell-off, dropping below $4,100 per ounce, but quickly rebounded, establishing $4,100 as a support level for the week [8]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar and heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside concerns over the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which may have reduced GDP growth by 1.5% to 2.0% [7][8]. - Market sentiment is influenced by disappointing employment and consumer confidence data, which have contributed to the bullish trend in gold as a non-yielding asset [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with the path of least resistance pointing upwards. Any pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities [8]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,250 and $4,300, while short-term support is at $4,161 and $4,100 [9].

Group 1 - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant rally, recently surpassing $126,000, driven by new demand sources and its fixed supply [2] - U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.9% over the past year, prompting investors to seek scarce assets like Bitcoin [4][5] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken over the next 12 months, benefiting Bitcoin and traditional hedges like gold, as investors look for safety from currency-related issues [5][6] Group 2 - Corporate treasuries and digital asset treasury companies are increasingly adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, contributing to its demand [7] - Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with approximately 640,031 bitcoins, and its chairman is committed to purchasing more regardless of price [8] - Bitcoin is being utilized as a hedge against inflation and is also being acquired by digital asset treasury companies, especially as asset managers create Bitcoin exchange-traded funds [9]

Market Trends - Bitcoin's role in the "debasement trade" is more narrative than reality as investors seek to hedge against a weaker dollar [1]

Economic Overview - The US national debt has reached $37.88 trillion as of October 2, 2025, increasing by $2.2 trillion since October 2024, which translates to $283,098 per household [1] - The average interest rate on total marketable debt is 3.415%, leading to $241.26 billion in interest payments over the past year [1] Asset Movements - Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 and gold reached a record $3,924.39 per troy ounce, indicating a significant shift towards alternative assets [2] - The US dollar has declined over 10% year-to-date, losing 40% of its purchasing power since 2000, prompting investors to seek safety in Bitcoin, gold, and silver [2] Debt Projections - If the current growth rate continues, the US national debt is projected to hit $38 trillion by December 9, 2025, with each additional trillion accumulating in approximately 169 days [3] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts net interest as a share of outlays to rise to 13.55% in fiscal year 2025 and 14.11% by 2027 [3] Market Correlation - The correlation coefficient between gold and the S&P 500 reached a record 0.91 in 2024, indicating that these assets moved in tandem 91% of the time [4] - The S&P 500 has increased by 40% over six months, adding $16 trillion in market capitalization, while the Nasdaq 100 has seen six consecutive monthly gains [4] Precious Metals Rally - Gold has increased nearly 47% year-to-date in 2025, driven by over 1,000 tons of central bank purchases, particularly from China and India, alongside Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - Analysts note a pattern of dollar debasement against alternative reserve assets, similar to trends observed after the global financial crisis [5]

Market Trends & Economic Indicators - The market is highly sensitive to economic data, especially job-related reports like the ADP report, as the Federal Reserve aims to be data-dependent [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards cuts occurring this month [2] - A declining dollar, although recently rebounding, is down double digits year-to-date, impacting different sectors uniquely [6] Investment Strategies & Sector Focus - Investors are using options to hedge against potential market downside, indicating a cautious approach [2] - The firm favors tech, AI, power, and resources (driven by tech), and healthcare sectors, as they are expected to be less affected by potential shutdowns [3] - The firm has been overweight on gold as a strategy to absorb market shocks and volatility [3] - The firm suggests exploring opportunities outside the US, such as China Tech and Japan, considering potential political changes [4] - Emerging markets, particularly Brazil, are attractive due to cheaper valuations and global dynamics [7] - Opportunities exist in commodities like platinum and copper, which tend to benefit emerging markets [8][9] Company Strategy & Outlook - The firm emphasizes focusing on quality companies that are more resilient to dollar weakness, especially in sectors like tech with significant overseas sales and low debt [7] - The firm is playing the power and resources trade globally, driven by the increasing demand for resources related to AI and server farms [9] - Potential government stimulus in China could provide a boost to commodities [10]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have reached 1.5-week highs, driven by a decline in the dollar index and concerns over Russian oil exports due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks [2][3] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is tightening global oil supplies, with significant damage to Russian oil infrastructure impacting crude processing rates [3][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil is up by 1.08 (+1.71%) and October RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0209 (+1.04%) [1] - A decrease in crude oil stored on tankers, which fell by 7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels, is also supporting oil prices [5] Economic Indicators - Strong US economic data, including a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales and a 0.2% rise in manufacturing production, is bullish for energy demand and crude prices [4] Geopolitical Factors - The war in Ukraine is leading to potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could further reduce global oil supplies [6] - Recent drone attacks on Russian refineries have significantly curtailed crude-processing runs to 4.98 million barrels per day, marking the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years [3]

Group 1 - UBS investment strategists indicate that rate cuts, dollar weakness, and political risk are favorable for bullion [1] - The commentary includes insights on S&P 500 price targets, highlighting market expectations [1] - There is a noted skepticism regarding AI developments within the market [1] Group 2 - Emerging markets are discussed in the context of current investment strategies and potential opportunities [1]