Group 1: AI Sector Developments - Nvidia's potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI has reportedly collapsed, indicating a rift between two major players in the AI industry [3][7] - OpenAI is exploring other significant investments, with a valuation of approximately $830 billion to fund next-generation AI models, raising concerns about circular deals within the AI ecosystem [3] Group 2: U.S. Government and Monetary Policy - The U.S. federal government is confirmed to shut down at midnight due to Congress's failure to pass appropriations legislation, affecting various agencies and services [4][7] - Larry Kudlow has endorsed Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve, suggesting a potential shift towards lower interest rates, which could be influenced by productivity gains from AI [5][7] Group 3: Housing Market Dynamics - President Trump has sparked debate by expressing a desire to keep housing prices high while advocating for lower mortgage rates, raising questions about the feasibility of improving affordability without reducing home prices [6][7] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - Saudi Arabia is concerned about President Trump's threats against Iran, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [9] - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has reiterated her presidential ambitions, highlighting the volatile political landscape in Venezuela [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment environment is perceived as lacking in opportunities, leading to a strategy of accumulating cash and waiting on the sidelines for better prospects [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company has expressed a cautious approach to investing, indicating a preference for holding cash rather than making new investments at this time [1]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of knowledge expansion and engagement in the investment community as a means to improve investment decisions [1]. Group 2: Company Engagement - The company is actively involved in discussions about geopolitics and macroeconomics, which informs its investment perspectives [1]. - There is a focus on companies that are part of the company's portfolio, highlighting a selective interest in specific stocks [1].

Group 1 - Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives are expected to face inquiries regarding their investment opportunities in Venezuela during analyst calls [1] - The focus on Venezuela may overshadow discussions about their actual quarterly earnings [1]

Gold prices continued to surge to new record highs as the yellow metal cleared $5,600 per ounce on Thursday. Gold had surged past the $5,000 threshold for the first time this Monday, marking a weekly... ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments are expected to decline to 810 million units in 2026, down from 817 million units in 2025, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth [1] - The primary reason for this decline is the shortage of memory supply and skyrocketing prices, leading smartphone manufacturers to lower their procurement plans for 2026 [1] - The price increase of memory has approached or even exceeded the cost of smartphone display panels, limiting the room for AMOLED manufacturers to offer substantial discounts in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The current memory supply tightness and price surge are directly attributed to the surge in demand from AI servers, which prioritize storage capacity for high-margin products, tightening supply for the entire consumer electronics chain [4] - An overlooked factor contributing to this situation is the escalation of geopolitical tensions, alongside the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which has weakened the dollar and attracted speculative capital into dollar-denominated commodities markets, including gold, silver, copper, and semiconductors [4] - The combination of industrial and financial attributes of these products, along with investors' demand for hedging against inflation, has further amplified price elasticity, leading to a revaluation of basic material pricing, which transmits input inflation to midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors [4]

Performance Summary - The portfolio achieved a return of 5.7% in the second half of 2025, resulting in a total return of +10.2% for the calendar year and +76% since inception in Canadian dollars net of fees [2][3] - Realized gains since inception are reported at +71.4%, with unrealized gains at 4.6% as of December 31, 2025 [3][35] - The portfolio's exposure by strategy bucket shows a significant concentration in Special Situations Equity at 35.9% for FY 2025, while Core Value Equity stands at 47% [4] Geopolitical Landscape - The investment landscape is undergoing dramatic shifts due to geopolitical changes, impacting competitive intensity and market size [7][8] - The corporate strategy of relying on low-cost supply chains is being challenged, leading to downward pressure on returns on capital [8] - Despite these changes, the opportunity set for fundamental value investors is not shrinking, but rather evolving [9][11] Portfolio Changes - In the second half of 2025, the company sold positions in Protector, Ryanair, and Alimak, marking the exit from all initial positions since inception [13] - The average return across the initial investments was 2.0x money with a 16% IRR, with no losses recorded on any investment [14] - The portfolio is now more concentrated, with the three largest positions comprising 37% of capital and the five largest making up 57% [19] Investment Cases for Major Holdings - **Burford Capital**: The company has seen an increase in book value per share and cash proceeds from litigation, with a fair value estimate of approximately 3x the current price [24][26] - **Borr Drilling**: The fundamentals have improved, with run-rate EBITDA increasing from $100 million to $500 million, and a fair value estimate of about 3x the current price [25][30] - **GetBusy PLC**: The management's ability to extract value from its US asset is crucial, with a fair value estimate of 2-4x the current price [27][30] - **Fever-Tree Drinks PLC**: The joint venture with Molson Coors is expected to accelerate commercialization, with a focus on recovering margins [28][30] - **Bolloré and Compagnie de L'Odet**: The simplification of the holding structure is ongoing, with potential for significant value creation over time [29][31] Business Update - The company has onboarded new investors aligned with its values and is utilizing AI to enhance business operations and insights [32]

Core Insights - Geopolitics, natural disasters, and AI are identified as key issues facing Asian insurers in 2026 [2] Group 1: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitics was highlighted as a significant risk at the beginning of 2025, and this assessment has proven to be accurate [2]

Core Insights - Gold has surpassed the $5,000 threshold and is projected to reach $5,500, a level previously deemed unattainable [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The price of gold has shown significant growth, moving from a previously considered high of $4,000 to now exceeding $5,000 [1]

Accessible version Global Economic Weekly Geopolitics takes over Davos Global Letter: Geopolitics takes over Davos While it is too early to tell, the current geopolitical order may be evolving significantly. Traditional US allies like Canada seem to be considering a diversification and risk management strategy for US relations. In our view, amid higher geopolitical tensions, influence over strategic resources and geographies, especially choke points, is at stake. Greenland tariffs were suspended, and the us ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts predict that spot gold prices, which recently reached a record high of over $5,000 per ounce, are expected to rise further towards $6,000 this year due to increasing global tensions and robust demand from central banks and retail investors [1] Group 1 - Spot gold prices hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday [1] - Analysts anticipate gold prices to climb towards $6,000 this year [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to mounting global tensions and strong demand from central banks and retail [1]