WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday it is wrong to put too much emphasis on the strength of equity and corporate credit markets in assessing monetary policy that he feels remains too restrictive and is heightening the risk of a downturn. "Financial markets are driven by a lot of things, not just monetary policy," Miran said on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, in explaining why he dissented last week against a quarter-percentage-point rate cut in favor ...

Key TakeawaysPfizer (PFE) has launched a second federal antitrust lawsuit against Metsera and Novo Nordisk (NVO), alleging anticompetitive practices in the burgeoning $150 billion obesity drug market.Eaton (ETN) is set to acquire liquid cooling specialist Boyd Thermal for $9.5 billion, a strategic move to capitalize on the surging demand from AI data centers.Fed Governor Miran reiterated his view that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is too restrictive, advocating for more aggressive 50 basis point int ...

How did you approach the committee meeting just last week and what was the argument for 50 basis points. So I approached it the same way we approached the first one, which is that I think that the Fed is too restrictive. I think that neutral is quite a ways below where current policy is.And given my rather more sanguine outlook on inflation than some of the other members of the committee. I don't see a reason for keeping policy as restrictive for a long period of time as we are. The longer you keep policy r ...

How did you approach the committee meeting just last week and what was the argument for 50 basis points. So I approached it the same way we approached the first one, which is that I think that the Fed is too restrictive. I think that neutral is quite a ways below where current policy is.And given my rather more sanguine outlook on inflation than some of the other members of the committee. I don't see a reason for keeping policy as restrictive for a long period of time as we are. The longer you keep policy r ...

Investors continue to be concerned about the government shutdown. Earnings and geopolitical worries might be reflected on Monday's trade. Private reports on manufacturing and service sector activity and private sector employment might be the focus this week. In the Asian trading session, gold edged higher, while the dollar eased from a near three-month high. Oil prices rose after OPEC+ decided to hold production steady in early 2026.Asian shares finished positive, while European shares are trading mostly u ...

Uh now to the Fed and uh what investors should expect from the central bank. We've been talking about the Fed all morning. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us with the latest.Hey Steve. Hey, good morning Andrew. Friday brought out a chorus of Fed hawks and some doves with Fed communications sounding increasingly chaotic.Beth Hammock from Cleveland. Uh Lori Logan from Dallas. Jeffrey Schmidt from Kansas City.All three opposed that October cut and cast doubt on whether they would support a Decembe ...

Economic Outlook - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed concerns that economic growth and investment could lead to inflationary pressures, voting against a recent 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Economic data indicated that the U.S. Chicago PMI rose to 43.8 in October, surpassing expectations of 42.3 [2] Corporate Earnings - Wall Street's major equity averages closed higher, with Amazon.com (AMZN) surging over +9% after positive Q3 results and solid Q4 guidance [3] - Twilio (TWLO) saw a +19% increase following better-than-expected Q3 results and above-consensus Q4 guidance [3] - Brighthouse Financial (BHF) jumped over +24% amid reports of Aquarian Holdings' advanced talks to take the company private [3] - In contrast, DexCom (DXCM) fell more than -14% after concerns about potential revenue growth shortfalls in 2026 [3] - The S&P 500 is expected to see an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3, marking the smallest rise in two years [6] Market Sentiment - December S&P 500 E-Mini futures are up +0.42%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up +0.57%, indicating positive sentiment driven by strong tech earnings and easing U.S.-China trade tensions [5] - Investor focus is on upcoming corporate earnings reports from notable companies including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Palantir (PLTR) [4][6] Federal Reserve Commentary - A range of Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, with particular attention on their views regarding the economy and labor market [7] - Fed futures indicate a 69.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 34th day, potentially delaying the publication of key economic data, including the U.S. jobs report for October [8] - Investors are focusing on private-sector data releases, such as the ADP employment report, due to the shutdown [8] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.62%, with automobile stocks leading gains following reports of resumed shipments from Dutch chipmaker Nexperia's China facilities [10] - Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, in line with expectations, indicating stagnation in manufacturing activity [11]

Debasement Trade Overview - The debasement trade involves rotating out of fiat currencies into assets like stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate due to concerns about the declining purchasing power of cash and government bonds [4] - The core idea is that investors prefer owning productive or scarce assets over holding fiat currencies that are perceived to be losing value [4] - Debasement doesn't necessarily mean hyperinflation or currency collapse, but rather persistent deficits and a policy bias towards managing debt [12] Asset Class Implications - US stocks benefit as owning businesses becomes more attractive when cash is perceived to be melting, particularly those driving economic growth [5] - Gold serves as a traditional hedge against money printing and a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty, recently reaching all-time highs [7][8] - Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold with a limited supply of 21 million, gaining mainstream acceptance through ETFs [9][10] - Real estate is considered a physical, scarce asset that provides essential shelter, maintaining high prices despite fluctuating mortgage rates [11] Drivers of the Debasement Trade - Fiscal dominance, where large government deficits and rising debt servicing costs constrain central bank monetary policy, is a key factor [14] - US net interest costs on debt are projected to exceed defense costs in 2025, signaling a significant burden [16] - Global debt stands at over 235% of GDP, driven by public borrowing, making the debasement trade feel rational [18] Bull Case for Continuation - History suggests governments tend to rely on policies that lower real rates to manage heavy debt, a concept known as financial repression [22] - Structural flows, such as US ETF flows projected at $14 trillion in 2025 and automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans, support equity markets [23][24] - Central banks' consistent gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicate a long-term reweighting [27] Counterarguments and Nuances - Market moves may be driven by market cycle exuberance and sentiment rather than solely by debasement concerns [35][37] - Concentration in a few mega-cap stocks can explain market highs without relying on a macro thesis [38] - Liquidity conditions, such as the Fed's pivot on rate hikes and potential end to quantitative tightening, may be a more significant factor [40]

Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates for the second time was viewed as the right move, prioritizing inflation control over unemployment concerns [1][2] - The Fed signaled a return to data dependence, avoiding commitment to further rate cuts [2] - Losing credibility around inflation, especially with massive deficits and political pressure, poses a greater risk than a potential slowdown [3] - Disagreements within the Fed, reflected in dissents, highlight the confusion in the economic picture [9][10] - The Fed will stop the roll off of the balance sheet as of December 1st [11] Inflation and Tariffs - Arguments suggesting that inflation is near the 2% target if tariffs are excluded are viewed skeptically, reminiscent of the "transitory inflation" idea [6][7][8] - Cherry-picking components that have risen is not considered a sound method for analyzing inflation [9] US-China Relations - Avoiding a spiral into massive confrontation and economic conflict with China is a positive outcome [16] - The impact of US-China relations on the US economy will not be determined by soybean sales [17] - Technology, particularly competition in artificial intelligence, remains a key issue in US-China relations [17] - Export controls on advanced microchips between the US and China present a difficult set of issues, balancing national defense with technological development [19][20]

Key Points Bitcoin investors have more macro factors to digest when attempting to value the world's largest cryptocurrency. Macro moves may matter more to Bitcoin than other smaller altcoins with their own independent catalysts. Here's what to make of recent moves in the currency market, and how they affect Bitcoin. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › It's been a volatile week for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), with the world's leading cryptocurrency currently down more than 1% on the week. However, ...