October Nymex natural gas (NGV25) on Friday closed down -0.051 (-1.74%). Oct nat-gas prices on Friday added to Thursday's sharp losses and dropped to a 3-week low.   Nat-gas prices fell Friday on negative carryover from Thursday when the EIA reported that nat-gas inventories rose +90 bcf in the week ended September 12, above expectations of +81 bcf and well above the five-year average for this time of year of +74 bcf.  That brings current US nat-gas inventories to +6.3% above their 5-year seasonal average ...

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a significant decline, closing down by 5.19% due to a larger-than-expected increase in inventories [1] - Cooler weather forecasts for late September are expected to reduce demand for natural gas from electricity providers [2] - Increased U.S. natural gas production has contributed to bearish market conditions, with production forecasts for 2025 being raised [3] Inventory and Production - The EIA reported a rise of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending September 12, exceeding market expectations of 81 bcf and the five-year average of 74 bcf [1][6] - U.S. dry gas production was recorded at 107.2 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The EIA's updated forecast indicates a 0.2% increase in U.S. natural gas production for 2025, now estimated at 106.63 bcf/day [3] Demand and Market Conditions - Lower-48 state gas demand decreased to 74.0 bcf/day, a decline of 0.8% year-over-year [4] - Electricity output in the U.S. rose by 0.83% year-over-year to 81,346 GWh for the week ending September 13, indicating some support for gas prices [5] - As of September 16, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 87% [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices experienced a slight decline, closing down by 0.10% due to expectations of a larger-than-average build in weekly inventories [1] - Forecasts for late summer heat in the US are expected to boost natural gas demand, which may limit inventory buildup ahead of the winter heating season [2] - Increased US natural gas production has been a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast [3] Inventory and Production - The consensus anticipates a rise of 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending September 12, surpassing the five-year average of 74 bcf [1] - US dry gas production reached 106.0 bcf/day, marking a 5.0% year-over-year increase, while demand was 73.3 bcf/day, up 0.6% year-over-year [4] - The EIA reported a 71 bcf increase in inventories for the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations and indicating adequate supply levels [6] Demand Factors - Electricity output in the US rose by 0.83% year-over-year to 81,346 GWh for the week ending September 13, supporting natural gas prices [5] - Forecasts indicate warmer temperatures across the US, particularly in the north-central region, which is expected to increase natural gas demand for electricity generation [2]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have declined to a one-week low due to a higher-than-expected increase in weekly stockpiles, with inventories rising by 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 5, surpassing expectations of 68 bcf and the five-year average of 56 bcf [1][6] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a near-record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day from the previous estimate of 106.40 bcf/day [3] - As of Thursday, US (lower-48) dry gas production was reported at 107.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.0% [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 71.7 bcf/day, showing a slight decline of 1.2% year-over-year [4] Weather Impact - Forecasts indicate warmer weather in the US, which is expected to increase natural gas demand from electricity providers due to higher air conditioning usage [2] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase in US electricity output of 1.03% to 83,003 GWh for the week ending September 6, and a 2.97% increase to 4,264,559 GWh over the past 52 weeks [5] Inventory Levels - As of September 5, natural gas inventories were down 1.3% year-over-year but were 6.0% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 80% full as of September 9, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 86% for this time of year [6]

Group 1 - October Nymex natural gas prices closed down by $0.088, a decrease of 2.82%, due to expectations of increased US gas inventories in the near term [1] - Seasonal pipeline maintenance along the Gulf Coast is expected to lead to a decline in natural gas exports, which will increase supplies in storage [1] - The EIA's weekly report anticipates a rise of 69 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending September 5, surpassing the five-year average increase of 56 bcf [1] Group 2 - Warmer weather forecasts in the US are expected to limit the downside for natural gas prices, as increased demand from electricity providers is anticipated due to higher air conditioning usage [2] - Forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and East for the period of September 15-24 [2] Group 3 - US natural gas production has recently been a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day [3] - Current US natural gas production is near record highs, with active rigs reaching a two-year high [3] Group 4 - US dry gas production was reported at 107.2 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.9% [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 70.6 bcf/day, showing a year-over-year decrease of 2.0% [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 14.4 bcf/day, down 5.8% week-over-week [4] - US electricity output rose by 1.03% year-over-year to 83,003 GWh for the week ending September 6, and increased by 2.97% year-over-year to 4,264,559 GWh over the past 52 weeks [4] - Natural gas inventories increased by 55 bcf for the week ending August 29, aligning with market consensus and above the five-year weekly average of 36 bcf [4] - As of August 29, natural gas inventories were down 2.2% year-over-year but 5.6% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supplies [4] - European gas storage was reported to be 79% full as of September 7, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 86% [4]

Back. Dom Chu has today's ETF edge. Dom, tell us more.>> All right, so Judge, raw oil and nat gas are the subject to headline volatility in these days. But if you still want exposure, but with some more stability, energy energy infrastructure might actually be the way to go. Joining me now is Paul Bayaki, the head of fund sales and strategy over at SSNC Alps Advisors.Uh Paul, this is an interesting trade right now. The Aaran MLP ETF is celebrating its 15th anniversary this month. What is that ETF and how do ...

Group 1 - Natural gas prices are currently range bound due to excessive production, with recent production levels reaching 112.5 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, slightly above past daily highs of 111 bcf [1] - The increase in production has significantly impacted storage levels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [1]