Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Kriti Gupta and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." Chapters: 00:00:00 - MLIV 00:00:07 - Oil Prices Dropping Fast 00:01:03 - US Dollar Headed Lower 00:01:34 - Can Fed Cut Rates? 00:02:38 - Bond Market Up -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit http://www. ...

Market Concerns & Inflation - Markets were initially concerned about the Middle East situation, particularly potential Strait of Hormuz closure or energy infrastructure damage, which could significantly increase inflation [1] - Oil prices potentially rising above $100 per barrel due to Strait closure could push inflation back above 5% and gas prices above $5 per gallon [2] - Easing Middle East tensions are causing oil prices to decline, suggesting a more positive inflation outlook and potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2][8] - Lower energy prices could offset some inflationary impact from tariffs [2] - Markets are currently more relieved by developments in Iran than concerned about upcoming tariffs [3] Federal Reserve & Tariffs - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is maintaining a "wait and see" approach regarding tariffs [4] - Recent economic data, including weaker economic surprise indexes, decelerating job growth, and friendly inflation prints, may be pushing the Federal Reserve towards easier monetary policy and another rate cut [5] - The final tariff terms, implementation, and pass-through to inflation are still unknown [6] - The debate now includes more voices on the dovish side, which is net bullish for investors [7] Market Sentiment - Market recovery is driven by optimism regarding no further escalation or potential resolution in the Middle East [8] - Lower energy prices are bullish for the markets [8] - Market pricing is heavily influenced by day-to-day news [9]

U.S. equities were higher at midday as concerns oil prices would spike because of the U.S. attack on Iran diminished. https://t.co/cgZT44lV1N ...

I guess if you take away the worst case scenario, that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. A couple of things to consider, though. One, Ali McCrossin RBC said over the weekend that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that, quote, The worst is behind us.Now, the other factor to consider here, irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not happen with Iran is the demand side. So there's been a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling by other countries within the West as well ...

I think the best traders of oil are the Chinese. And so they're the real, you know, the power underneath this all is that is their buying of Iranian crude. They put the bid on oil. They put the bid on Iranian oil so that they're the main buyer by far.You know, 80% of Iranian oil is a lot of it actually goes to Malaysia and then is re flagged. So you see that Malaysia exports more oil to China than it produces oil. So it's obviously smuggled.And basically the other manipulation is the White House turning the ...

LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING US IS STEPHEN SHORCK. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT THEY WILL LAST.IT WILL DEPEND ON FURTHER ESCALATION AND HOW LONG THE HOSTILITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION OF A WAIT AND SEE. THE MARKET HAS PRICED IN GREATER VOLATILITY.WHAT WE SAW BEFORE LAST THURSDAY WAS A MARKET SWITCHING INTO THE BRENT AND WTI BEGINNING IN 2026 HAD SWITCHED TO A MARKET WHERE PRICES FOR JANUARY WERE CHEAPER THAN FEBRUARY AND SO FORTH. THIS IS A CLASSIC FUNDAMENTAL TELLTALE THAT THE MARKET IS PRICING I ...

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Supply - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, with approximately 20% of the world's oil flowing through it [1] - A material disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact global oil supply [1] - Iran has the potential to disrupt or restrict oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even without a full closure [2][3] Potential Impact on Oil & Fuel Prices - Any restriction or anxiety regarding oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly affect oil prices [3] - Increased oil prices would likely translate to higher fuel prices for consumers [3] Iran's Options for Disruption - Iran could harass shipping or direct ships into its territorial waters as a means of disruption [2] - A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would be difficult to sustain for a long period, potentially upsetting allies like China [2]

The straight of Hormuz is a narrow stretch of water that links the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. About a fifth of the world's oil flows through it. That's the world's produced oil, the world's consumed oil.It has to go through that waterway. It's largely unavoidable. And so any kind of material disruption would be a big issue.Iran has always said that it could close the straits if threatened, if the situation demanded it. It would be very difficult for Iran to do that and certainly very difficult f ...

Joining us now to talk about the market implications of uh the war between Israel and Iran. Marco Papich, macro and geopolitical analyst at BCA research. So far, not not even in the oil markets, not a huge uh um effect at this point. What could that change, Marco? What would change that? Well, I think the only thing that really matters is Iran's level of willingness to interdict energy supply transiting through Straits of Hormuz. That is ultimately the only thing that investors are watching. So whether US a ...

President Trump left the G7 meeting early to focus on the conflict between Israel and Iran. And the president says he's looking for something uh in his words better than a ceasefire. Joining us now, former Biden senior adviser Amos Hawkin.He's a managing partner at TWWG Global. And I assume you uh Amos, and it's good to see. I I assume you have a pretty good idea of um how the world is supplied right now with oil.And you can explain why we did see a little a move higher, but we certainly didn't see the any ...