QT ends, cuts loom - Are we Back or Not? https://t.co/WZKLywj5ge ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with a majority of investors anticipating a quarter-point reduction in the upcoming policy meeting [22][23][24] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 191,000 for the week ending November 29, down from 218,000 the previous week, marking the lowest level since September 2022 [21][22] - Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist believes the market is not pricing in enough Fed rate cuts for the next year, suggesting that more aggressive cuts are necessary [23][24] 分组2 - Netflix is reportedly in the lead to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, indicating a significant strategic shift for the streaming giant [3] - Meta's shares have risen as the company plans to implement significant cuts in its metaverse units, continuing its transition towards artificial intelligence [3][49] - The market is currently experiencing conflicting signals, with strong earnings figures being overshadowed by concerns over economic data and inflation [11][12][22] 分组3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with no cuts anticipated in the near future despite inflation concerns [29][34] - Structural reforms in Europe are deemed necessary for economic growth, with calls for reducing red tape and improving the business environment [32][34] - The ECB's quantitative tightening measures are being closely monitored, with potential risks associated with liquidity distribution across the Eurozone [36][37] 分组4 - Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations are viewed as part of a maturing market cycle, with expectations for a more constructive macro backdrop for cryptocurrencies [52][66] - Regulatory clarity in the US is driving increased demand for digital asset infrastructure, with banks preparing to integrate blockchain technologies [69][70] - The debate around stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is ongoing, with differing views on their impact on traditional monetary systems [71][74]

Core Insights - Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing a rally, with prices increasing approximately 6.2% over the past week to around $3,176, which is about 35% below its all-time high of approximately $4,946 reached in August [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of about $140.2 million on December 3, with BlackRock's ETHA product attracting roughly $53 million [2] - The ETH/BTC trading pair has broken a three-month downtrend, indicating a potential capital rotation back from Bitcoin into Ethereum [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - BitMine, an Ethereum treasury firm, purchased an additional $150 million in ETH, increasing its stock by about 15% in December and targeting a total of 5% of the ETH supply [4] - Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, believes the crypto market is stabilizing and anticipates a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10, which could favor risk assets like ETH [5] Group 3: Technological Upgrades - The Fusaka hard fork is set to go live, aiming to reduce transaction costs on layer-2 chains and enhance user experience, with a potential increase in Ethereum's blob capacity by up to eightfold [6] - Ethereum Foundation researcher Alex Stokes highlighted that the new technique allows for scaling without compromising core values [7]

QT has officially ended. Next up: today’s PMI 👀🙏• PMI > 50 → economy expanding → risk-on → crypto tends to rise• PMI < 50 → economy slowing → risk-off → crypto weakens• PMI sharply low → rate-cut expectations grow → liquidity returns → crypto rallies https://t.co/luxOB6BJEVPoloniex Exchange (@Poloniex):🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve officially ends Quantitative Tightening (QT) .This means the Fed stops draining liquidity from the market — a historically bullish signal for risk assets like crypto. 📈🟢More liquidity → ...

Coinbase Institutional states that while the end of quantitative tightening and the Fed's return to the bond market have improved liquidity, which theoretically benefits the crypto market, Bitcoin remains under pressure. BTC has broken key bull market support, options sentiment has turned bearish, OG whales continue to sell, spot ETFs have seen significant net outflows, and treasury activity (DATs) has notably slowed. https://t.co/K1E8S6anXg ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has halted its balance-sheet runoff and shifted its policy to stabilize liquidity in response to market pressures, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on December 1, 2023, and will now reinvest maturing Treasuries and mortgage-bond payouts into Treasury bills to maintain ample reserves [1][3]. - A 25-basis-point rate cut was implemented, adjusting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first cessation of balance sheet reduction since 2022 [4]. - Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the decision was made once reserves exceeded the level necessary for smooth market functioning, as indicated by money-market signals [3]. Group 2: Impact on Cryptocurrency Market - The shift in Fed policy aims to stabilize liquidity and control short-term rates, but the cryptocurrency market remains cautious amid ongoing downward momentum [2][5]. - Bitcoin's recent trading activity showed volatility, with prices fluctuating between approximately $83,951 and $90,108, indicating market uncertainty [4][5]. - Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin dominance tends to peak shortly after the cessation of quantitative tightening, followed by a decline in dominance as altcoins begin to recover [6].

Market Analysis and Trends - The crypto market is showing strong impulsive moves, with Bitcoin up 726% and XRP up 767% [1] - The total crypto market cap has rebounded to over $3 trillion, adding nearly $40 billion in the last 4 hours and over $230 billion since a recent drop [2][3] - The Fear and Greed Index remains at 16, indicating extreme fear, suggesting potential for further upside [1] - The market is watching for Bitcoin to break over $91500 to confirm a strong reversal and a potential bottom [8] - XRP needs to close above $223 to break major resistance [10] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's ending of its three-year quantitative tightening (QT) program is seen as a major catalyst for the market rebound, injecting liquidity [21][39] - The Fed has also been injecting billions into the US banking system, with $135 billion in overnight repos [25] - The market anticipates the FOMC meeting in 8 days as another potential catalyst, already pricing in a rate cut [30][31] Exchange and Security Concerns - Bybit, a top crypto exchange, experienced a $14 billion hack, highlighting security risks [17] - iTrust Capital offers premium custody accounts with closed-loop systems to protect assets, allowing withdrawals only in USD linked to a US bank account [18] ETF Performance - Spot and leverage volume for ETFs is over $40 million, with Franklin Templeton at $7 million, Bitwise at $63 million, and Canary at $3 million [20]

Market Performance - Bitcoin has surged back above $90,000, trading at $90,339 after a 6.7% increase in the past day, marking its highest level since last week [1] - The trading volume for Bitcoin has more than doubled, exceeding $92 billion, indicating heightened market activity [3] - Ethereum has also seen significant gains, rising nearly 10% and briefly surpassing $3,000, while XRP increased by 7.3% to trade at $2.14 [3] Liquidation and Derivatives - The recent price rise has led to the liquidation of $157 million in Bitcoin short contracts and over $312 million across all crypto derivatives products [2] Federal Reserve Influence - Analysts suggest that the performance of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will be influenced by the outcomes of the Federal Open Markets Committee's meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The Federal Reserve recently injected $13.5 billion via overnight repos to address year-end liquidity issues, which is seen as a routine stabilization measure rather than a shift in broader policy [5] Fund Flows and ETFs - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP ETFs have rebounded, adding over $1 billion in the past week, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing $8.5 million in net inflows [6] - However, Ethereum ETFs experienced a slight pullback with $79 million withdrawn, and Solana funds had $13.5 million in shares redeemed [7]

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What does this mean? QE time? 😆The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has officially ended quantitative tightening (QT). https://t.co/EC9wQLeaxo ...