Market Overview - The market is experiencing volatility due to renewed trade tensions, particularly influenced by Trump's social media posts [1][3] - There is a prevailing "buy the dip" mentality among retail traders, indicating a strong desire to re-enter the market despite minor weaknesses [4] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields are currently in a holding pattern, with both 2-year and 10-year yields trading in tight ranges due to a lack of significant economic data [6][7] - The absence of timely data, such as the September jobs report and inflation reports, is contributing to uncertainty regarding Fed policy expectations [6][8] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a rate cut in the near future, but there is uncertainty about the economic outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2026 [7][17] - There is a discussion around quantitative tightening (QT) and its implications, with expectations that the end of QT may be approaching as the Fed aims to normalize its balance sheet [15][17] Trade Relations - The potential meeting between Trump and Xi is seen as a critical factor that could alleviate market fears regarding tariff escalations [11][12] - The market has become accustomed to expecting de-escalation following initial trade tensions, which may influence investor sentiment [9][10]

Monetary Policy - Quantitative Tightening (QT) 将在未来几个月结束 [1] - Quantitative Easing (QE) 将会紧随其后 [1] Market Outlook - 行业认为这对另类加密货币 (altcoins) 是极大利好 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction campaign may conclude soon, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon, impacting various markets including cryptocurrencies and gold [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion in mid-2022 to approximately $6.6 trillion, with a reduction of about $2.4 trillion since then [2][3]. - Powell indicated that the Fed has no intention of reverting to its pre-COVID balance sheet size of $4 trillion, as non-reserve liabilities are now about $1.1 trillion higher than before the pandemic [3]. - The Fed's ability to pay interest on bank reserves is under threat from Congress, which Powell warned could undermine the central bank's control over interest rates [1][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Gold prices reached a record high near $4,200, reflecting a 59% increase year-to-date, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [2]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP data indicating a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, and Powell noting that both layoffs and hiring remain low [4]. - Powell acknowledged rising downside risks to employment, suggesting a likely quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting on October 28-29 [2][4]. Group 3: Critiques and Future Outlook - Powell faced criticism regarding the timing of quantitative easing during the pandemic, admitting that the Fed could have acted sooner [4]. - There are emerging signs of tightening liquidity conditions, which could potentially hinder economic growth if reserve reductions continue [3].

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday said that the central bank could soon reach a point where its long-running program to reduce the balance sheet size would need to end. Yet, BTC continues to trade in the red with derivatives pointing to persistent bearish sentiment. “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” Powell said in prepared remarks for his speech at the National Association for ...

Bitcoin is up 750% over the last 3 years (wow) as the Fed tightened monetary conditions.Fed Funds: 0.25% → 5.5% → 4.25%Balance Sheet: $9T → $6.5TNow that QT is ending and the Fed's policy rates are coming down to sub-3%, BTC now has the tailwinds of easing at its back. https://t.co/NbhLHz6A65Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti):Bitcoin managed to rise from $18,000 to $126,000 as the Fed reduced its balance sheet.What do you think happens now that it's ending?🟢🟢🟢🟢 ...

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the end of the central bank’s long-running effort to shrink the size of its holdings, widely known as quantitative tightening, or QT, may be coming into view. Given the central bank’s long-running goal of leaving enough liquidity in the financial system to allow for firm control of short-term rates and normal money market volatility, Powell said “we may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a ...

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy overall "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday. He noted that at policymakers will take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to any further interest rate cuts as they balance job market weakness with the fact that inflation remains well above their 2% target. Powell also said the end of the central bank's long ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may soon conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) efforts, which have been in place since 2022, as liquidity conditions in the financial system are being closely monitored [1][2]. Group 1: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Overview - QT aims to reduce the excessive liquidity added during the COVID-19 pandemic, with large-scale purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds previously stabilizing markets [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from around $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since the initiation of QT, as bonds are allowed to mature without replacement [5]. - There are indications that liquidity conditions are tightening, evidenced by firming repo rates and temporary pressures on specific dates [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed's ample reserves regime has been effective for monetary policy implementation and financial stability [6]. - The extent to which the Fed can continue to shrink its holdings remains uncertain, but officials believe there is still sufficient liquidity to proceed with QT without disrupting money markets [5]. - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed's interest-paying powers to ensure effective rate control and avoid significant market stress [6].

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy overall "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday. He noted that at policymakers will take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to any further interest rate cuts as they balance job market weakness with the fact that inflation remains well above their 2% target. Powell also said the end of the central bank's long ...

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the end of the central bank’s long-running effort to shrink the size of its holdings, widely known as quantitative tightening, or QT, may be coming into view. Given the central bank’s long-running goal of leaving enough liquidity in the financial system to allow for firm control of short-term rates and normal money market volatility, Powell said “we may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a ...