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Inflation and Pricing Trends - Food at home index increased by 03% in May, contrasting with a decrease of 04% in April [1] - Supply and demand issues, rather than tariffs, are significant contributors to cost increases, particularly concerning herd sizes which are at a 40-50 year low [4] - Increased fuel, labor, and energy prices are putting pressure on suppliers [17] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are impacting small suppliers, with a 10% tariff on bananas being split between the importer and the company, each absorbing 5% [7] - Specific tariffed items include bananas, pineapples, wines, and champagne from Europe [6][7] - Some products like avocados and salmon are not subject to tariffs [7] Consumer Behavior and Savings - Customers are generally feeling confident, and the company has not yet raised prices due to tariffs [3] - The company avoids raising prices because even a small increase (e g, from $499 to $509) can decrease sales [13] - Customers can save by checking specials, using apps, and trying private label products, which can offer savings of around 20% [14][15] - Sampling demos in stores can double or triple sales of an item [16] Local Produce and Supply - Local produce and fruits/vegetables are currently in season, providing good opportunities [9] - The US relies on imports for tropical fruits like pineapples and bananas due to limited domestic growing regions [11][9] - Lobster prices have decreased in the US due to high tariffs on US exports to China, resulting in ample domestic supply [8] Food Recalls - Food recalls are unpredictable and require quick reaction to clear shelves and notify customers [12]

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a firm floor for Brent crude prices in the range of $55-60 and WTI prices in the range of $50-55 [5] Core Insights - Global oil demand increased by 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in May, averaging 103.6 million barrels per day (mbd), although this was 250 kbd below expectations [5] - Total liquid inventories globally built by 10 million barrels (mb) in May, with crude oil stocks rising by 3 mb and oil product inventories increasing by 7 mb [5] - The report anticipates a 2.6 mbd surplus in crude oil by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rising OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [5] Oil Market Analysis - Front-month crude prices remain resilient despite accelerated OPEC supply hikes [5] - Five conditions are identified for crude prices to reflect year-end weakness, with expectations that only two will occur: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [5] - Limited potential for run increases due to refinery closures in the US and Europe, capacity constraints in Russia, and export restrictions in China [5] Agricultural Market Insights - The USDA's June 12 WASDE report is viewed as a major bullish event risk for CBOT Corn prices, with a significant increase in US corn export targets [6] - US wheat export sales remain competitive, prompting an increase in old crop US wheat exports [6] - A tighter US cotton balance is expected due to rising export demand [6] Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The European natural gas market is influenced by supply factors following the decline in Russian pipeline flows, with a focus on demand dynamics [7] - The report introduces a European natural gas demand and storage tracker to monitor weekly demand and storage dynamics in key regions [7] LNG Trade Forecast - Global LNG trade in May 2025 reached 47.4 billion cubic meters (Bcm), with a year-to-date volume of 244.8 Bcm, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year increase [8] - The forecast anticipates a growth of around 5% in global LNG trade for the full year 2025, reaching 589 Bcm [8] Commodity Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest declined by 3% week-over-week, driven by outflows in the gold market and weakness in energy prices [9] - Cumulative flows for 2025 have returned to 10-year average levels [9] Rig Activity Trends - The downward trend in US rig activity continues, with a decrease of nine oil rigs this week, particularly in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins [10] - The pace of rig attrition in the Permian is surpassing earlier projections, leading to a downward revision of 2025 Permian crude and condensate output [10] Price Forecasts - The report provides quarterly and annual price forecasts for various commodities, including WTI and Brent crude, natural gas, base metals, and precious metals [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodities sector, but it discusses various market dynamics and price expectations for oil and other commodities. Core Insights - Global oil inventories are increasing, yet prices remain stable, with market opinions divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. Prices are expected to remain within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end [3][6] - A global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd), likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance [3][6] - Despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm price floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range [3][6] - Most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, are producing at or near maximum capacity following a price hike in July [3][6] - The U.S. administration may begin repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as early as August [3][6] - U.S. shale wellhead breakeven prices are estimated at around $47 WTI, assuming zero return [3][6] Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker - Global oil demand improved from the previous week, driven by a rebound in U.S. oil consumption, tracking approximately 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) monthly expansion, yet remains 250 kbd below expectations [10] - Total liquid inventories globally edged up slightly, with crude oil stocks falling by 1 million barrels while oil product inventories increased by 2 million barrels [10] - Month-to-date, global liquid inventories have risen by 63 million barrels, with crude oil stocks up by 67 million barrels [10] Commodity Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 2.5% week-over-week (WOW) to $1.46 trillion, driven by inflows and rising prices across precious metals and crude oil [9] - Contract-based inflows reached $20 billion WOW, marking the highest aggregate inflows for 2025 at $90 billion year-to-date, surpassing 10-year average levels [9] Price Forecasts - WTI Crude prices are forecasted to average $57 per barrel in Q4 2025, while Brent Crude is expected to average $61 per barrel in the same period [12] - Platinum prices are projected to rise to an average of $1,200 per ounce in Q4 2025 and reach $1,300 per ounce by Q2 2026 [11]

Watch the bond market. The bond market is the basis. It's the backbone of all markets.It is the risk-free meaning defaultree probably default-free um interest rate that determines what all asset returns are going to be. And when there is a breakdown of the supply demand picture for the bond market, you see a certain type of market action, you see long rates rising relative to short rates. You see the currency go down.You see gold go up because there's a movement out of that bond market because there's a sup ...

| 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/04/24 | 6220 | - | 6035 | 275 | -102 | 84 | 31466 | | 2025/04/25 | 6230 | - | 6010 | 256 | -167 | 18 | 31666 | | 2025/04/28 | 6260 | 6220 | 6070 | 283 | -37 | 148 | 32026 | | 2025/04/29 | 6260 | 6210 | 6055 | 324 | 41 | 226 | 32927 | | 2025/04/30 | 6260 | 6185 | 6035 | 373 | 88 | 273 | 33024 | | 变化 | 0 | -25 | -20 | 49 | 47 | 47 | 97 | | 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 从业资格号:F03110419 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) 涨跌 指标 4月28日 ===== 19/20 ====· 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ====== 22/23 ====== 22/23 - 23/24 - 24/25 大连 2500 615 -454 2000 天津 575 1500 -444 1000 515 日照 -314 500 43%豆粕现货基差 515 张家港 -304 -500 (对主力合约) 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 09/21 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 10/27 11/27 08/77 M9-NI 东莞 715 -104 _==== 2019/20 ------ 2021/22 - -- 2022/23 == 2024/25 1000 湛江 715 -154 800 600 防城 815 -4 400 200 广东 菜粕现货基差 -181 43 -200 04/24 05/25 03/ ...

Report Title - South China Glass and Soda Ash Data Weekly Report 20250426 [2] Core Views - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure due to weak demand and high mid - upstream inventory. The price may continue to be under pressure, and short - term fluctuations may increase. Variables such as ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement need to be tracked [3][4]. - For soda ash, although there will be more maintenance in May, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a long - term surplus. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. Demand has a slight improvement, but there is a risk of the photovoltaic industry returning to an over - supply situation [5][6]. Glass Analysis Supply - At the end of April, the daily melting volume of glass may slightly decline to 156,000 tons. Three production lines are planned to shut down at the end of April, and one new line was ignited in April [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 heavy boxes (+0.61%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.25%. The inventory days are 29.4 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The inventory structure shows that upstream factory warehouses are accumulating inventory while mid - stream is reducing inventory [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are: - 153 yuan for natural gas, + 145 yuan for coal - made gas, and - 38 yuan for petroleum coke. The increase in the price of imported petroleum coke in Hubei has pushed up costs by 80 - 100 yuan [3]. Demand - As of April 15, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory of raw glass is 11.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [3]. Strategy - Due to weak demand and high inventory, the glass price has dropped significantly. Future price trends depend on ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [4]. Soda Ash Analysis Supply - The weekly production is 755,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 17,800 tons), including 339,100 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 5,300 tons) and 416,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 12,500 tons). Maintenance is expected to increase in May [5]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.691 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,300 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 338,500 tons (a decrease of 44,700 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.0295 million tons, with a total de - stocking of 180,000 - 190,000 tons from March to April [5]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of double - ton soda ash by the combined soda process is + 255.5 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is 17.5 yuan/ton. Profits have improved week - on - week due to the decline in raw material prices [5]. Demand - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is increasing, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash inferred from float and photovoltaic glass has improved. However, the photovoltaic industry may return to an over - supply situation after the end of the rush - installation period [6]. Strategy - From May, maintenance is expected to increase, and supply disturbances will also increase. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. The overall supply - demand pattern remains in long - term surplus, and price fluctuations may increase [6].