Core Insights - US inflation may be quietly rising as companies gradually pass higher import costs onto consumers, with a focus on upcoming consumer inflation and retail data [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in June, the highest increase in five months, with a year-over-year increase projected at 2.9%, marking the first rebound since January [1][2] - Analysts anticipate cumulative inflation pressure as companies adjust pricing in the second half of the year, despite limited tariff transmission reflected in June data [2] Inflation Dynamics - The transmission of price changes is uneven, with certain goods experiencing tariff impacts while service prices remain soft, indicating a mixed inflation landscape [2] - Consumer sensitivity to prices is heightened due to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth, complicating retailers' decisions on price increases [2] - The tug-of-war between corporate pricing strategies and consumer resilience adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with upcoming meetings set to consider these inflation trends [2] Retail Sales Data - Following the CPI report, the US Commerce Department will release June retail sales data, which is expected to show a slight rebound after two months of decline [3] - Weak consumer spending aligns with a cooling job market, and lackluster retail sales data could support the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy [3] - Together, the CPI and retail sales data will provide insights into the current state of the US economy at the intersection of inflation and growth, particularly in light of the evolving tariff policies [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Midea, Gree, Haier, and Hisense, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the white goods sector [27][28]. Core Insights - The white goods industry is expected to show resilience with a projected revenue growth of +9% and net profit growth of +11% year-over-year for the covered companies in 2Q25, driven by domestic demand and trade-in programs [1][25]. - Midea is highlighted as the leading player in the market, benefiting from a diversified revenue base and strong profitability, while facing manageable competition from smaller players [1][6]. - The report anticipates that domestic demand will become a more significant growth driver, particularly supported by trade-in programs and promotional events like "618" [1][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to accelerate in 2Q25, following a brief slowdown earlier in the year, with trade-in programs resuming and promotional events boosting sales [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to disburse trade-in subsidies starting in July, which is expected to stabilize funding and support growth [1][5]. Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in the online channel is noted, particularly from smaller players like Xiaomi, which may impact revenue growth and margins for these companies [1][4]. - Despite the competition, the report suggests that the risk of a full-blown pricing war is limited, as premium products continue to grow faster than entry-level offerings [1][4]. Company Performance Expectations - Midea, Haier, and Gree are expected to report approximately 10% revenue growth and 10%-12% net profit growth in 2Q25, while Hisense is projected to face more challenges due to a slowdown in its central AC business [4][24]. - The report fine-tunes earnings forecasts for the covered companies, adjusting estimates by -6% to 2% to reflect recent operational data [4][21]. Price Target Revisions - Price targets for the covered companies have been revised down by -11% to 2% to reflect changes in earnings per share (EPS) and target multiples [21][27]. - Midea is expected to maintain its leading position due to its diversified revenue streams and strong market presence, while Gree is anticipated to benefit from strong domestic demand for air conditioning [6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].

Group 1 - OPEC+ is accused of accelerating production increases as a "scam," suggesting that the apparent negative impact on the market may conceal deeper strategies [1] - There is a misinterpretation in the market regarding supply signals, which presents an opportunity for savvy investors to position themselves ahead of the summer demand surge [1] - Hedge funds are betting on a continuous rise in the U.S. stock market for July, indicating a strategy to capitalize on potential market highs while constructing a defensive position [1]

I want to start with this data and maybe we can spend some time on a palace intrigue later on. Jobless claims, initial claims lower than expected, continuing claims higher than expected and creeping higher over the past few months. From your vantage point, president title, how much weight would you put on one versus the other.And what's the labour market picture look like in your point of view, your opinion. Well, the labor market is shaping up to be solid and the data today confirmed that. Now, continuing ...

CORPORATE OVERVIEW April 2025 MARINE PRODUCTS CORPORATION FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS NON-GAAP DISCLOSURE Certain statements and information included in this press release constitute "forward- looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements include statements that look forward in time or express management's beliefs, expectations, hopes or strategies. In particular, such statements include, without limitation: our plans to begin ...

Core Insights - Boston Scientific (BSX) has raised its full-year 2025 guidance for net sales growth to approximately 15-17% on a reported basis and nearly 12-14% on an organic basis, reflecting strong first-quarter results and ongoing momentum in key growth areas [1][8] - The company reported an organic sales growth of 18% in the first quarter, exceeding the guided range of 14-16%, with adjusted EPS at $0.75, a 34% year-over-year increase [2] - The Cardiology segment saw a significant sales increase of 31%, driven by products like WATCHMAN and AGENT drug-coated balloon, while the Electrophysiology business experienced a remarkable 145% year-over-year growth [3][8] Financial Performance - Full-year adjusted earnings per share are now expected to be in the range of $2.87-$2.94, up from the previous estimate of $2.80-$2.87 [1] - The company anticipates a $200 million tariff impact in 2025, primarily in the second half, but plans to offset this through organic sales growth and discretionary spending reductions [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Edwards Lifesciences and Stryker have also adjusted their sales forecasts, with Edwards maintaining an 8-10% growth forecast and Stryker raising its guidance to 8.5-9.5% organic growth [5][6] - Boston Scientific's stock has outperformed the industry, gaining 33.4% over the past year compared to the industry's 8.8% growth [7] Valuation Metrics - Boston Scientific currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 33.19X, which is above the industry average of 20.83X [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade for truckers, suggesting a lessened probability of recession and a resilient consumer [12]. Core Insights - The inbound traffic from China to the US has shown slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEUs, indicating a potential moderation in the China surge [1][3]. - Year-over-year growth for laden vessels from China to the US accelerated to the high teens, despite the recent sequential decrease [3][19]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity/orders due to uncertainty [6][9]. - The report suggests that if the economy does not fall into recession and tariff issues stabilize, retailers may face inventory shortages leading to a surge in orders in the second half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Trade Patterns - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that the data can be volatile but informative over a multi-week basis [4][5]. - The recent data indicates that traffic from China to the US is outpacing that of Asia, ex-China, with a +16% year-over-year increase for TEUs [3][25]. Freight Demand and Container Rates - Container rates have shown a sequential drop of -2%, potentially foreshadowing a demand drop post the initial surge from China [3]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles increased by +23% sequentially, reflecting the volatility of shipper decisions [37]. Economic Outlook and Inventory Trends - The report highlights that logistics managers' inventory levels are expanding upstream while compressing downstream, indicating a potential mismatch in supply and demand [68][73]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows higher inventory costs, reflecting increased storage costs as inventory builds before moving to consumers [74]. Port Activity and Shipping Volumes - Major ports in the US experienced a -10% year-over-year decline in volumes, with a significant drop of -22% sequentially from April to May [53][59]. - The report notes that the Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) are seeing a strong relationship between inbound volumes and TEU growth from Asia [58][61].

M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as our outlook, and we expect t ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for the Property & Casualty (P&C) sector in North America [5] Core Insights - The impact of tariffs is expected to introduce more volatility in loss reserving, particularly affecting property lines of business [1][2] - Companies with significant exposure to property reserves, such as Allstate, Progressive, Hanover, and Travelers, are likely to experience greater reserve fluctuations due to tariff and inflation pressures [2][23] - The overall P&C industry reserves have been growing above 5% since 2022, with expectations of less favorable reserve releases in the future due to increased uncertainty from tariffs and inflation [11][14] Summary by Relevant Sections Loss Reserving Analysis - The report indicates that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by tariff disputes and inflation fears, is likely to lead to increased fluctuations in overall P&C reserving estimates [7][11] - Historical data shows that initial reserve estimates have faced challenges during periods of economic uncertainty, with the need for reserve strengthening anticipated [7][11] Homeowners Insurance - Claim severity trends for homeowners insurance may increase due to tariff impacts, leading to higher initial loss picks for future accident years [10][30] - The report does not expect significant adverse reserve development for homeowners insurance due to its short-tailed nature, although overall IBNR reserve levels are expected to rise [10][30] Auto Physical Damage - Auto Physical Damage reserves are expected to develop favorably, supported by higher rates and improved profitability, despite potential tariff impacts on repair costs [41][42] - The report notes that while initial loss picks may spike due to tariffs, the overall impact is viewed as manageable [41][42] Commercial Multi-Peril - The report highlights that Commercial Multi-Peril (CMP) reserve development may see a wider range of outcomes as the market transitions, with increased conservatism in loss picks due to social inflation [12][51] - Historical trends indicate that CMP reserves have been affected by hard and soft market cycles, complicating future reserving forecasts [49][52] Overall Industry Trends - The P&C industry is expected to face elevated headwinds for several years, particularly as personal auto enters a more competitive environment and inflation pressures resurface [11][12] - The report emphasizes that companies relying on favorable property reserves to offset adverse casualty reserves will be more vulnerable to the impacts of tariffs and inflation [23][24]