Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is the most popular way to measure economic growth. Actions that the president takes while in office can influence GDP growth, as can events such as recessions, pandemics, or wars. https://t.co/hxe1hUAhnO ...

Joining us now for more is Olria Hoffman, Bchardi, CIO of America's and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. It's great to see you, Olri. >> Great to be here.>> Talk to me a little bit about your thesis about what is the momentum behind the stocks on this tear and what fuels it higher. Yeah, we have been selectively bullish before in the US, especially around technology and artificial intelligence, but now we think the macro picture is turning and things are going to be brighter on the h ...

Economic Growth & Policy - China aims to maintain "reasonable" economic growth while drafting the next five-year development plan [1]

Core Insights - Asia-Pacific economies performed better than expected in the first half of the year, indicating resilience in the region's economic performance [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautions that the full impact of U.S. tariff increases is still uncertain, which could affect future growth [1] - A slowdown in growth is anticipated, suggesting potential challenges ahead for the Asia-Pacific region [1] Economic Performance - The Asia-Pacific region showed stronger-than-expected economic results in the first half of the year, reflecting a more robust economic environment than previously forecasted [1] - Despite the positive performance, the IMF highlights that the ongoing trade tensions and tariff hikes from the U.S. could pose risks to sustained growth [1] Future Outlook - The IMF's warning about the unclear effects of U.S. tariffs suggests that businesses and investors should remain vigilant regarding potential economic headwinds [1] - A projected slowdown in growth indicates that while the region has fared well so far, future economic conditions may become more challenging [1]

Earnings Season Performance - 86% of companies beat earnings expectations, which is in line with the average [3] - Strong results are seen across the board, but big upside moves are not necessarily observed, suggesting multiples may have reached a point where they can't push much higher [4] - Earnings have been a key reason for market resilience, with upward revisions of earnings estimates increasing profit estimates and providing an environment for multiple expansion [1] - Multiples tend to decrease when estimates are cut, indicating that valuations can remain high as long as numbers continue to be revised upwards [2] Bond Market and Economic Signals - Ten-year Treasury yields are below 4%, raising questions about whether the bond market is signaling concerns about equity and credit or reflecting expectations of quantitative easing or contained inflation [5][6] - The context of why the ten-year yield is falling is crucial; a falling yield due to a bad economic scenario implies lower earnings and valuations, while a falling yield due to an aggressive Fed or reduced Treasury issuance could still be beneficial for risk assets [8][9] - Fed GDP now is at 39% [5] Market Concentration and Potential Catalysts - The U S represents 30% of the global stock market, almost 50% now [10] - Concentration risk has been a topic for over a year, and past peaks of concentration (Nifty 50, tech bubble) were followed by lost decades of returns for equities [11][12] - A catalyst is needed for the concentration to unwind, and earnings growth of the "Magnificent Seven" is identified as a potential catalyst [12]

India's Talent Reverse Brain Drain - India is transitioning from a talent-exporting nation to an attractive destination for talent and opportunities [9] - Professionals and students are returning to India, indicating its growing importance as a hub for innovation and extended headquarters [9] - India's rapid economic growth, especially in technology, science, and research sectors, is a key factor driving this talent return [10] - The booming startup ecosystem, with over 160,000 registered startups, is creating opportunities and welcoming the diaspora back to India [13] - Visionary policies like Startup India, Make in India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat are encouraging professionals abroad to return and build their careers in India [15] Global Capability Centers (GCCs) - The number of GCCs in India has grown significantly, from a few in the early 2000s to approximately 1,700 today, and is projected to reach 2,200 by 2030 [16][17] - GCCs are evolving from back-office operations to innovation powerhouses, focusing on product development, analytics, and strategy [18] - The professionals and diaspora are taking on significant roles in running these GCCs in India [19] Factors Contributing to Reverse Brain Drain - Improved infrastructure, research facilities, modern education institutes, and healthcare are attracting talent back to India [19] - The availability of amenities and a lifestyle comparable to those abroad is also a factor in the return of talent [20] - Restrictive immigration policies and political uncertainties in some developed countries are contributing to the reverse brain drain [23] Educational Institutes and Innovation - Institutes like IIT Madras have incubated over 100 startups and filed over 400 patents, while IIT Kanpur has incubated over 400 startups [24] - A complete ecosystem is being built with thousands of incubators across the country, fostering innovation and attracting talent [25]

Financial Outlook - Lloyds raised its outlook for net interest income [1] Economic Forecast - Lloyds forecast UK economic growth would be slow [1]

Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The Fed needs reform, particularly regarding Quantitative Easing (QE), which is considered not stimulative and a cause of wealth inequality [1] - The Fed's large staff and control over markets are criticized, suggesting it's part of the "deep state" [1] - The Fed is skeptical of allowing others to participate in short-term markets, specifically stablecoins, and is slow to change [1] - A 50 basis point cut (0.5%) in the Fed Funds Rate is suggested for the next meeting, as the Fed is behind the curve [4] - Current short-term interest rates are at 415 basis points (4.15%) [3] Fiscal Policy & Taxation - The world needs more growth, which could be achieved through tax cuts in countries like Japan and the US [1] - High marginal tax rates (e.g., 45% in Japan) and VAT taxes are seen as detrimental to economic outlook [1] - Capital gains taxes in the US are too high, locking up unrealized gains and reducing market dynamism [1] - Lowering the capital gains rate to 10% for a limited time could create a government windfall [1] - Taxing wealth can lead to capital flight, as seen in Britain and Washington state [1] Economic Growth & Energy - More energy use is correlated with higher per capita income, advocating for more fossil fuels and less focus on renewable energy [1] - Increased energy production in the US is necessary for competition with China [1]

Indonesia’s central bank is poised to lower borrowing costs for a fourth straight month as part of its pledge to go “all out” in buoying economic growth https://t.co/VdV06qkqo1 ...

Golden Visa Program Status - Several European countries, including Spain, the Netherlands, and Ireland, have discontinued their golden visa programs, while Portugal's program remains active [1] - Portugal revamped its golden visa program in 2023 due to concerns about rising house prices attributed to foreign investors [1] Investment and Economic Impact - Portugal's golden visa program offers routes to citizenship through a €500,000 investment in domestic funds or a €250,000 donation to cultural heritage projects [2] - The Portuguese golden visa program is significantly cheaper than the US equivalent, which requires a $5 million investment [2] - A museum in Kamul, Portugal, has raised over €20 million through golden visa donations [3] - Applications for Portugal's golden visa program surged by 72% in 2024, reaching nearly 5,000, an all-time high [4] - The program has generated more than €7 billion up to 2023 [4] Economic Performance and Criticism - Portugal's economy is growing at twice the rate of the Euro zone average [5] - Critics argue that the funds generated by the golden visa program should be directed towards other sectors in need, such as hospitals and schools [4][5]