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Group 1 - The article discusses the expertise of a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [1] - The firm employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to identify hidden value in public equities, particularly in micro and small-cap companies [1] - The analyst has a strong academic background, holding an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics, and has specialized training in valuation and financial modeling [1] Group 2 - The research has been featured on multiple platforms, indicating a broad reach and recognition in the industry [1] - The firm also covers related sectors such as consumer discretionary, food & beverage, and casinos & gaming, showcasing a diverse analytical approach [1]

分组1 - The analyst assigned a hold rating to Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL) in June due to high valuation at 19x NTM PE, despite a positive view on the company's fundamentals [1] - The company has demonstrated strong fundamentals and is viewed positively for its long-term growth potential [1] 分组2 - The investment approach focuses on value investing principles, emphasizing the purchase of quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value [1] - The strategy involves holding investments for the long term to allow for compounding of earnings and shareholder returns [1]

Core Insights - Costco continues to demonstrate strong performance, outpacing traditional retail competitors and expanding its global footprint [1][2] - The company reported an 8% revenue increase to $86.2 billion, slightly exceeding estimates, with comparable sales rising 6.4% [4] - Earnings per share increased by 11% to $5.87, surpassing consensus expectations [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter reached $86.2 billion, up from $79.9 billion a year ago, slightly above the estimated $86.1 billion [4] - Comparable sales, adjusted for foreign currency and fuel prices, rose 6.4%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 5.9% [4] - Gross margin improved to 11.13%, an increase of 13 basis points year-over-year [5] - Membership income grew by 14%, with paid memberships increasing by 6.3% to 81 million [5] Membership and Expansion - Costco's recent warehouse expansions have allowed for increased sales of high-priced discretionary items [5] - The company has introduced extended store hours for executive members, which has led to an uptick in membership upgrades [6] - Membership renewal rates remain high, with a 92% renewal rate in North America and 90% worldwide [9] Market Position and Valuation - Despite strong earnings, Costco's stock fell by 0.8% in after-hours trading, reflecting its stable nature and low volatility [7] - The company does not provide forward guidance, contributing to a stable but potentially stagnant growth outlook [8] - Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 51.8, indicating a premium valuation compared to other retailers, which may limit future stock growth [9][10]

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Market Sentiment & Valuation - The market is debating whether an AI-fueled bubble exists, with some valuations appearing stretched due to hype and speculation [1] - Some argue the rally is justified by solid earnings and upbeat guidance from companies, suggesting fair valuations [2] - Macro tailwinds, such as potential Federal Reserve easing and cooling inflation, are providing a boost to stocks [3] Potential Risks & Red Flags - Concerns exist that the AI rally may be outpacing actual earnings, with some unprofitable tech companies experiencing significant gains [3] - The rally remains concentrated in a few mega-cap tech companies, indicating limited broader market participation [4] - Strategists are watching for classic signs of a bubble, where promise outweighs the ability to deliver [3][4]

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Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential for investment decisions [1] - Smart capital allocation and insider ownership are key factors [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are prioritized [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are critical for success [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth are sought after [1] - Market penetration in high-growth industries is a focus area [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is necessary for long-term viability [1] - A strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway are essential [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is a priority [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered [1] - Ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential is a key strategy [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are allocated to high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are made in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

President Trump signing an executive order meant to keep Tik Tok running in the United States. Vice President JD Vance says the deal values Tik Tok's US business at 14 billion and under the terms a new joint venture company will oversee Tik Tok in America with China based Bite Dance retaining less than a 20% stake. Uh but there's been no indication yet that the Chinese government has made uh the legal changes with the algo and all that necessary for a deal to go through.Joining us uh is our own Aean Jeffs a ...

Summary of New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) - **Industry**: China Education - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: US$47.00 - **Current Price**: US$50.98 (as of September 24, 2025) - **Market Capitalization**: US$85,111 million - **Fiscal Year Ending**: May 2026 Key Points and Arguments 1. **1QF26 Revenue and OPM Guidance**: Management expects to exceed the high end of its previous revenue guidance (up 2-5% year-over-year) and OPM guidance (0-0.5 percentage points year-over-year) due to better-than-expected overseas revenue, which is projected to decline between -5% to 0% year-over-year, compared to previous guidance of -5% [2][4][9] 2. **F2026 Outlook**: The company aims to improve shareholder returns by returning no less than 50% of GAAP net profit over the next three years, with 50% allocated to dividends and the remainder to share buybacks [4] 3. **Earnings Forecast**: Non-GAAP operating profit is forecasted at US$586 million (11.1% OPM) and non-GAAP net profit at US$549 million (10.4% NPM) [9] 4. **Revenue Breakdown**: High school revenue is expected to grow by 10-12% year-over-year, while K9 revenue is projected to increase by 20% year-over-year, indicating a re-acceleration in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 [9] 5. **Cost Control Measures**: Management anticipates that cost control efforts and improvements in K9 and profitable East Buy will help offset the drag from the overseas business, leading to a stable OPM year-over-year [9] 6. **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 14% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [10] 7. **Market Risks**: Potential risks include intensified competition, low visibility in revenue/earnings from live-streaming e-commerce, and possible regulatory changes affecting high school and non-academic tutoring sectors [12] Additional Important Information - **Earnings Growth**: The company is expected to achieve an 8.4% earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from fiscal 2026 to 2029 [4] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has a 52-week range of US$87.11 to US$40.70, indicating significant volatility [6] - **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team including Eddy Wang, CFA, and Gary Yu, Equity Analysts at Morgan Stanley [5] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding New Oriental Education & Technology, highlighting its financial outlook, strategic initiatives, and market conditions.