Moody’s says sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth will accelerate this year and next, supporting a stable credit outlook despite high costs and weak revenues https://t.co/B6Ws3MkNTQ ...

Economic Outlook - American economic growth has slowed [1] - Data analysis reveals reasons for optimism despite the slowdown [1]

Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - The Senate confirmed Stephen Meyer as a temporary Fed member, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his dual role in the White House [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, with speculation about a possible 50 basis point cut depending on economic projections [4][6] - The summary of economic projections will be crucial in determining future rate movements and inflation expectations [5][8] Market Reactions and Trends - Equity markets are moving higher as yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds decline, indicating a favorable rate environment [6][7] - The dollar is weakening, reaching its lowest point since July, which typically signals aggressive rate cuts [7] - Gold prices are hitting record highs, driven by its role as an inflation hedge and the ongoing purchases by central banks [10][11] Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - There are concerns about labor market weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [20] - The potential for persistent inflation remains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation for positive economic outcomes [15][16] Oracle and TikTok Deal Speculation - Oracle's stock is experiencing upward momentum due to speculation about its involvement in a potential TikTok deal, positioning it as a key player in US-China trade discussions [26][28] - Other social media stocks, such as Meta, are not facing significant downward pressure, indicating a broader market optimism [29]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Economic Growth Forecast - Spain's government and central bank increased economic growth forecasts for 2025 [1] - Spain is recognized as the region's top major performer following a strong second quarter [1]

Global equities are likely to rally even higher as a jump in economic growth expectations is keeping stock bulls firmly in control, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett https://t.co/tZ21goU1kP ...

Group 1: China’s Economic Initiatives - China is rolling out policies to invigorate service consumption and tourism, including issuing 5-year multiple-entry visas to a broader range of individuals and extending business hours for tourist attractions and museums [2][3][9] - The country aims to expand pilot programs in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract global capital and open up the economy [3][9] - China plans to promote international sporting events, targeting a total scale of the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion) by 2030, as part of its strategy to make domestic demand the primary engine of economic growth [3][9] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Stance - The ECB is maintaining a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, with Governing Council member Scicluna stating that there are no planned cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4][9] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Ford Motor Company is set to cut 1,000 jobs at its Cologne plant in Germany in early 2026 as part of a broader restructuring effort across Europe, with a total workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 employees by 2027 [5][9]

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

Economic Outlook - Investors are concerned about slowing job growth and tariff-related costs [1] - Investors anticipate that tax cuts and falling interest rates will stimulate economic growth [1]

China’s retail sales and factory output grew last month at the slowest pace this year, deepening concern over the health of the world’s second-largest economy: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/7koGsfWb3T ...