We do want to turn back now to the today's big news on the economy. I'm joined now by NBC News senior White House correspondent Garrett Hake and CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leeman and Thomas Hanik, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He's now a distinguished senior fellow at the Meritus Center at George Mason University.Thank you all for joining us. Really appreciate it. Garrett, let me start with you.The president has not been shy at all about trying to pressure the Fed to ...

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

Thank you. Colobby Smith with the uh New York Times. Um two of your colleagues called for a quarter point cut today and I'm wondering what aspects of their argument were most compelling to you and how you're weighing their views against those um on the committee who as of the June forecast uh were in the camp of the Fed holding interest rate study uh for the remainder of the year.Um and and just in terms of the the June SEP in particular, is that still the best representation of where the core of the commit ...

🇺🇸 Powell: What we see now is the very beginning of tariff inflation. https://t.co/wWtDf6BeVH ...

to our panel on this. So, we got what we expected, Francis. We got no cut.Okay. We got two descents from Fed governors. First time since 1993, before you were born even.Okay. I wish this this descent happened. What is Jerome Powell going to do at the next few meetings.Cuz he's on his way out and his legacy is I don't want to say on the line, but what he does is kind of how we're going to remember him because that's how things work. I might take a step back and say there's so much focus right now on Chair Po ...

What else are the most important things that we that you need to hear. With us now is Kelly Kowolski, head of investment strategies at Mass Mutual. Kelly, good to have you on set. Good to meet you.Hey, Brian. Thank you. What do you What do you want to What do you want to hear. What do your clients and customers need to hear today.Well, I think what the market is really looking for is the openness to a September cut, which is seems to be sort of a tossup right now if you look at what bond markets are pricing ...

Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The biggest public misunderstanding about the Fed is the idea that lower interest rates are a reward for good economic behavior, rather than a tool to manage the economy [1][2][3] - The economy is confusing, with mixed signals from unemployment and inflation indicators, making a strong case for a rate move difficult [4][5] - There's no clear case for the Fed to move rates, and anyone confident about the correct move isn't paying attention [5] - The Fed's "transitory" inflation call was conceptually correct but numerically off, and criticisms of the Fed being behind the curve were wrong [7][8][9] - Politicizing the Fed is a clear intention, with potential for "Turkey-style" economic policy if political constraints were absent [13] Trade & Tariffs - The long-term effect of Trump's tariffs is estimated to reduce GDP by 04%, which is significant but not catastrophic [18][19] - Markets may be correctly concluding that the trade situation will settle down into a world of high tariffs, leading to a slightly poorer economy but not a depression [20][21] AI & Technology - AI, or rather large language models, are not truly "thinking" but statistically predicting responses based on existing knowledge [24][25] - Significant job displacement due to AI is possible, as many jobs don't require deep thinking [25] - It's possible to believe that some AI stock prices are in a bubble while also acknowledging that AI is a seriously important new technology [23]

Financial Performance & Guidance - Manderly's earnings and revenue exceeded estimates, but the company anticipates a 10% reduction in EPS due to cocoa cost inflation [1] - Excluding chocolate, the rest of Manderly's business is growing mid-single digits [2] - Chocolate prices globally are expected to increase by 30-50% over a 2-year period [2] - Last year, chocolate prices rose 15-20%, with a similar increase expected this year [3] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have surged by approximately 400% in the last two years [3] - Demand for chocolate is expected to decrease by 6-7% due to price increases [8] - Early indications suggest a potentially banner cocoa crop, which could lead to an oversupply and potentially lower cocoa prices [9] - A worst-case scenario of crop failure could necessitate further price increases and product downsizing [8][10] Consumer Behavior & Regional Differences - Consumers are under pressure and anxious about the future, particularly in the US, where they are carefully managing their spending [5] - Lower-income social classes are experiencing the most significant shifts in shopping behavior [6] - Business in Asia and Europe experienced double-digit growth [11] - European consumers feel more confident than North American consumers, partly due to automatic salary increases linked to inflation in some European countries [12][13] Business Strategy - Only 30% of Manderly's business is in chocolate, mitigating the impact of cocoa price volatility [10] - 75% of Manderly's business is outside of North America, providing a more balanced consumer base [10] - Local production in Europe helps to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations on consumers [12]

Interest Rate & Economy - President Trump suggested the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates following a 3% GDP growth, arguing there's no inflation and it would help people buy or refinance homes [1] - The real estate industry benefits from lower interest rates [2][7] - There's a debate on whether interest rates should be lowered, considering inflation is currently under control [3][4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation remains a mystery, as predicted price increases haven't materialized [5] Real Estate Market - Outside of New York City, rents are down in many places due to overbuilding, especially in the Southeast and Southwest [6] - Lower interest rates would help increase the supply of housing, making it more affordable for consumers [8] - LFrack organization is actively developing in Jersey City (with 20,000 people living there) and Miami (projected 5,000 apartments) [13] - Unlocking 40,000 to 50,000 rent-stabilized apartments could immediately make rents more affordable in New York City [16] Political & Policy - There's discussion about the potential impact of a socialist mayor on New York City, a center of capitalism [14] - Trump's negotiation style involves starting at a high point to make the best deal [11]

🇺🇸 Trump reacts to 3% Q2 GDP: “Too Late must now lower the rate. No inflation! Let people buy and refinance their homes!” https://t.co/RqDBRVsXXM ...