Job numbers may be soggy, but Americans are still spending, retail sales look solid and stockmarkets keep hitting all-time highs. The country’s economic picture is surprisingly strong https://t.co/GB8dCW6KMY ...

In the rosiest scenario artificial general intelligence will arrive and usher in a new world of economic growth of perhaps 20% a year.More mundane scenarios should also be considered, however https://t.co/R7bD5mWwlb ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals with strong GDP growth and record stock market highs contrasted by weak job reports and rising inflation [1] - President Trump's tariffs are causing concerns regarding their impact on consumer prices, GDP growth, and the labor market [1] GDP Growth and Economic Projections - Tariffs could lead to a GDP growth decline of approximately 0.9 percentage points by 2025, with long-term effects potentially reducing annual real GDP by about 0.6% [3] - A long-run GDP drop of around 6% is projected, along with wage reductions of roughly 5% [3] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariffs are expected to raise inflation by about 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026, reducing household and business purchasing power [4] - Tariffs are described as functioning like taxes, leading to higher business costs that are typically passed on to consumers [4] Labor Market Trends - There is a sustained slowdown in job creation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August 2025 and a decline of 12,000 manufacturing jobs [5] - Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating ongoing job losses in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and construction [5][6] Financial Market Reactions - Stock markets reacted sharply to the announcement of broad tariffs in April 2025, with significant declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [7] Revenue vs. Economic Costs - While tariffs are generating significant federal revenues, economic models suggest that the losses in GDP and wages outweigh these gains [8]

The CBO now expects higher inflation and unemployment this year and slower economic growth, after taking into account Trump’s tax law, tariffs and lower net immigration https://t.co/fgp8YwEKhh ...

India’s inflation accelerated for the first time in ten months in August, though low enough for the central bank to keep the door open for rate cuts if economic growth takes a knock https://t.co/WLd5GwrfgR ...

Recent report from Moody's states that 33% of states in the US they are already in recession territory. It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. It makes sense the economic growth happening in these areas because of the tech sector.But the fact that we're not seeing growth in other states, that's less than ideal. So, add in the fact that the S&P 500's price to book value is now higher than it was in the 20 ...

Investors appear poised to shift their focus, worrying about economic growth, rather than whether inflation will allow the Fed to cut borrowing costs. ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB governing council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged [1][21] - The ECB will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance [3][22] - The ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path [4][22] - The ECB stands ready to adjust all instruments within its mandate to ensure inflation stabilizes sustainably at the 2% medium-term target [23] Inflation Outlook - Headline inflation is currently around the 2% medium-term target [1] - ECB staff projects headline inflation averaging 21% in 2025, 17% in 2026, and 19% in 2027 [2] - Inflation, excluding energy and food, is expected to average 24% in 2025, 19% in 2026, and 18% in 2027 [2][13] - Annual inflation edged up to 21% in August from 2% in July [10] Economic Growth - The economy grew by 07% in cumulative terms over the first half of the year [5] - The economy is projected to grow by 12% in 2025, revised up from the 09% expected in June [2] - The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower at 1%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 13% [3] - The unemployment rate was 62% in July [6] Financial Conditions - The average interest rate on new loans to firms moved down to 35% in July from 36% in June [20] - The cost of issuing market-based debt was unchanged at 35% [20] - Loans to firms grew by 28%, slightly more strongly than in June, while the growth of corporate bond issuance rose to 41% from 34% [20] - The average interest rate on new mortgages was again unchanged at 33% in July, while growth in mortgage lending picked up to 24% [20]

Fitch Ratings may downgrade Poland’s sovereign score if the country fails to stabilize its government debt level or maintain economic growth momentum https://t.co/htmvVBv69D ...

Summary of European Central Bank Update / Briefing September 11, 2025 Key Points on the ECB and Economic Outlook ECB Interest Rates and Inflation Projections - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with inflation currently around the 2% medium-term target [2][11] - Headline inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, while inflation excluding energy and food is expected to average 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2][7] - The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from 0.9% expected in June, with a slight decrease in growth projection for 2026 to 1% [2][4] Economic Resilience and Consumer Spending - The economy grew by 0.7% in cumulative terms over the first half of the year, driven by strong domestic demand [4] - The unemployment rate was reported at 6.2% in July, which is expected to boost consumer spending as people save less of their income [4][6] - Investment is expected to be supported by substantial government spending on infrastructure and defense [5] Risks and Challenges - Risks to economic growth are now considered more balanced, with recent trade agreements reducing uncertainty [8] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, remain significant sources of uncertainty [8] - The outlook for inflation is uncertain due to the volatile global trade policy environment, with potential for both lower and higher inflation depending on various factors [9] Financial and Monetary Conditions - Short-term market rates have increased, while longer-term rates have remained stable [10] - The average interest rate on new loans to firms decreased to 3.5% in July, with corporate borrowing costs continuing to decline [10] - Growth in loans to firms was reported at 2.8%, and corporate bond issuance rose to 4.1% [10] ECB's Approach to Monetary Policy - The ECB will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine monetary policy stance, without pre-committing to a specific rate path [3][11] - The Governing Council emphasizes the importance of assessing incoming economic and financial data to inform interest rate decisions [3][11] Additional Insights - The ECB is focused on ensuring that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target in the medium term, with a commitment to adjust instruments as necessary [11] - The introduction of a digital euro and the completion of the Savings and Investment Union are highlighted as critical for future economic stability [6] Conclusion - The ECB remains vigilant in monitoring economic conditions and is prepared to adjust its monetary policy as needed to maintain stability and support growth in the euro area [11]