Netflix unveils its first-quarter results Thursday afternoon. The report will kick off a rather momentous earnings season for media amid churning stock markets and recession jitters prompted by the Trump administration’s global tariffs. Traditionally the company that fires the starting gun for entertainment and tech numbers every three months, Netflix may be a calming place to start this time. As tariffs cast a pall across business sectors including media, the streaming giant may be Wall Street‘s top stock ...

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, April 6. Click here to get your hands on our critically-acclaimed 18- pick stock report.It feels too strange to begin Chart of the Week without addressing the elephant in the room, which is the past week’s intense oscillation that has taken place on Wall Street. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has taken global trade by storm -- and not always in a good way. On Monday, April 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) suffered its ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock markets are experiencing extreme volatility due to the imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about a potential global trade war and its impact on the U.S. economy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The baseline tariff of 10% was imposed on all imports starting April 5, 2025, with rates reaching as high as 145% for certain countries like China [2][3]. - The S&P 500 index is currently in correction territory, having declined by 8.6% year to date, and was trading close to bear market levels last week [5]. Group 2: Featured Stocks - A selection of stocks that have provided double-digit returns year to date includes American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK), Exelon Corp. (EXC), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO), all carrying a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [6]. Group 3: American Water Works Co. Inc. (AWK) - AWK is benefiting from contributions from acquired assets and military contracts, with new water and wastewater rates enhancing performance [7]. - The company is expanding its operations through both organic and inorganic initiatives, with 17 pending acquisitions expected to add 24,200 customers [9]. - AWK has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate [10]. Group 4: Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Exelon's investments are aimed at strengthening its transmission and distribution infrastructure, with initiatives in grid modernization expected to enhance service reliability [11]. - The company anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.2% and 6.4%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12]. Group 5: CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from increasing electricity demand driven by the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [13]. - The company has an expected revenue and earnings growth rate of 3.2% and 8%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.6% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 60 days [16]. Group 6: The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is experiencing growth due to higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [17]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PGR are 16.1% and 10.9%, respectively, with a 1% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last seven days [18]. Group 7: Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - BRO's growth trajectory is supported by a compelling portfolio and strategic initiatives that enhance its capabilities and geographic reach [19]. - The company has projected revenue and earnings growth rates of 8.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [20].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for U.S. Lodging C-Corps and Timeshares has been downgraded due to weaker consumer demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and negative impacts from U.S. airlines, leading to a reduction in 2025 RevPAR forecasts by approximately 125 basis points [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A 45% probability of a U.S. recession is assumed, although not fully factored in, with a focus on asset-light companies that have global exposure and less reliance on U.S. resorts [2] - The preference is for stocks with more global diversity, lower U.S. resort exposure, asset-light business models, and stronger prospects for non-RevPAR and ancillary revenues in a choppier macro environment [3] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that lodging revenue growth is cyclical, with significant downturns during previous recessions, where business demand impacts leisure travel first, and premium chains experience larger RevPAR declines than economy chains [4] - Hotel C-Corps have transitioned to asset-light, fee-based business models over the past decade, which have shown resilience during downturns, as franchise revenues tend to perform better than owned/leased or timeshare revenues [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH) was upgraded from Sell to Buy, with a price forecast lowered from $141 to $138, due to its defensive position driven by franchise revenue structure and strong balance sheet [6] - CHH is less affected by current macroeconomic challenges compared to other U.S. lodging companies, with improving trends in consumer purchase intent and performance among lower-income segments [7] - Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell, with a price forecast lowered from $150 to $110, due to higher macro sensitivity and significant exposure to China [8] - Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) and Marriott International Inc (MAR) were downgraded from Buy to Neutral, with price forecasts lowered from $296 to $235 and from $313 to $245, respectively, due to macro volatility and consumer pressures impacting macro-sensitive segments [9][10] - Both HLT and MAR have strong business models but face high valuations compared to historical cycles, with consensus estimates for IMF and non-RevPAR fees considered too optimistic [11]

Warner Bros Discovery will not be selling its Polish network TVN. Following a strategic review, WBD management has decided to keep the broadcaster in its ranks, according to a note sent today to staff from Kasia Kieli, Head of WBD Poland and CEO at TVN, and Gerhard Zeiler, President of International at WBD. “That review has been completed, and WBD has concluded that the best path forward is retaining ownership of TVN, continuing to support our business, our strategy and the incredible journalistic work of ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported a 15% increase in first-quarter profit, driven by record revenue in equities trading and improved fixed income results [1][2] - The bank's profit rose to $4.74 billion, or $14.12 per share, compared to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, a year earlier [2] - Market volatility and uncertainty over tariffs are influencing investor sentiment and economic projections [1][6] Financial Performance - Equities trading revenue surged by 27% to a record $4.2 billion as investors adjusted their portfolios in response to new tariffs [5] - Fixed income, currency, and commodities trading revenue increased by 2% to $4.4 billion [5] - Investment banking fees fell by 8% to $1.9 billion in the quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead [6] Market Context - The S&P 500 index has dropped approximately 9% year-to-date, reflecting broader market turbulence [6] - Concerns over tariffs and trade barriers are leading to caution among corporate clients, which may limit growth in the coming months [6][10] - Goldman's shares have decreased by 12% since the announcement of tariffs, while competitors JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also seen declines [8] Asset Management - Revenue from Goldman's asset and wealth management division fell by 3% to $3.68 billion, despite managing a record $3.17 trillion in assets [9] - The bank set aside $287 million for credit losses, a decrease from $318 million the previous year [10] Executive Compensation - CEO David Solomon received an $80 million stock bonus to remain in his position for another five years, alongside a similar retention bonus for President John Waldron [11] - There is pushback from proxy advisers regarding the perceived excessiveness of these compensation packages [14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a recession is increasing due to tariff policies, which could lead to a worldwide economic slowdown as prices rise significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco operates in the consumer staples sector, focusing on essential products, which typically perform better during recessions [3]. - The company's revenue forecast for the next 12 months is $1,024.03, indicating a 6.29% upside from the current price of $963.41 [4]. - Food accounts for approximately 54% of Costco's total revenue, with gasoline contributing an additional 12% [4]. - Costco's Kirkland Signature brand is priced about 20% lower than national brands, providing a competitive edge during economic downturns [5]. - Despite exposure to non-food items (26% of revenue), Costco's strong membership renewal rate of 91% during the pandemic helps mitigate risks [6]. Group 2: Dollar General - Dollar General is also positioned in the consumer staples sector, focusing on low-cost essentials, which is advantageous in recessionary periods [7]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for Dollar General is $94.75, reflecting a 6.33% upside from the current price of $89.11 [8]. - Consumables make up 82% of Dollar General's total revenue, including essential items like food and personal hygiene products [9]. - The company's strategy of maintaining low price points makes it a favorable option for consumers during tough economic times [10]. Group 3: TJX Companies - TJX operates in the consumer discretionary sector but employs an off-price strategy, selling brand-name goods at significant discounts [11]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for TJX is $135.76, indicating a 5.88% upside from the current price of $128.22 [12]. - TJX has historically outperformed during recessions, with shares rising 30% in the 2001 recession while the S&P 500 fell [13]. - Analysts have identified TJX as a top pick for potential recession resilience, despite underperforming the S&P 500 in 2020 [14].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a tariff plan by the president has led to a significant drop in the stock market, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the United States according to many experts [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The stock market has experienced a considerable decline following the president's tariff announcement [1]. - Experts believe that the probability of a recession in the United States has sharply increased due to the market's reaction [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the likelihood of a recession, contributors from Fool.com discuss stocks that they would consider buying at this time [1].

11 April 2025 | 9:59PM BST GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagf ...

Core Insights - The stock market has experienced significant volatility following President Trump's announcement of severe tariffs, with a majority of stocks remaining in the red despite a subsequent pause on some levies [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded a 6% loss from April 2 through 2:45 p.m. EDT on the following Friday, marking both its largest daily percentage gain since 2008 and its steepest daily percentage loss since 2020 during this period [2][3]. - Approximately 90% of the 500 stocks listed on the S&P have declined since the tariff announcement, reflecting concerns over a potential recession and international business dealings [3]. Sector Analysis - Healthcare stocks have shown resilience, with UnitedHealth Group leading gains at 15%, driven by an unexpected increase in Medicare Advantage plans [4]. - Other healthcare companies like Elevance Health and CVS Health also saw stock increases of 3% and 2%, respectively [4]. - Non-healthcare stocks that performed well include discount retailers such as Ross Stores (up 7%), TJX (up 3%), and Walmart (up 3%), as well as defense contractors like General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin, which saw increases ranging from less than 1% to 5% [5][6]. Underperformers - The worst-performing stocks since April 2 include Charles River Laboratories (down 34%), Warner Bros. Discovery (down 25%), and several energy companies like APA Corporation and Devon Energy, which saw declines of 30% and 26% respectively [7]. - Among companies valued at $100 billion or more, energy giants Chevron and ConocoPhillips, along with Texas Instruments, Bank of America, and Bristol-Myers Squibb, also faced significant losses [7]. Volatility and Market Sentiment - The S&P has experienced at least 1.5% movement in six of the seven trading days following the tariff announcement, indicating heightened volatility [8]. - The "magnificent seven" tech stocks, including Apple and Tesla, have largely declined, with Apple and Tesla both down 12%, attributed to their reliance on revenue from China [9]. - Market volatility is characterized by an average intraday move of 5% for the S&P, positioning April among the four most volatile months in the last 46 years [10].