Time now for money, power, politics. And tonight, we start with this headline from the New York Times. Quote, "Trump is winning his trade war. What will it mean for the actual economy?" We've seen him use his leverage to announce new trade deals around the world that include big tariff rates, levels that would have seemed unimaginable 6 months ago.Let's be clear, Trump is remaking the world economy around tariffs, something he has been talking about for more than a decade. He's defying expectations. And rig ...

Interest Rate Expectations and Fed Policy - The market anticipates a September rate cut with approximately a 65% probability [5] - The Fed's potential rate cut is linked to successfully navigating tariff impacts and observing inflation reports [3][6][7] - Current interest rates at 45% (implied 45%) are considered above restrictive in real terms (approximately 2%), suggesting a potential need for a rate cut [3] - The Fed is expected to provide clarity on the conditions (what), timing (when), and reasons (why) for potential rate cuts, particularly concerning tariff impacts [5][6] - Market implied inflation expectations are rangebound and consumer inflation expectations have decreased from previous highs of 6% to 7%, potentially giving the Fed leeway to cut rates if these trends continue [7][8] Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - Short-term market exuberance is noted, with the market up 30% from April lows, leading to high valuations and overbought conditions in public markets [9] - Near-term, the current moment may not be the ideal buying opportunity, but long-term investors should consider earnings growth, margins, and valuations [10] - Private markets are exhibiting meaningfully lower valuations, higher margins, and higher earnings growth compared to public markets [11] Impact of Rate Cuts and Capital Markets - A rate cut would be welcomed, especially for private market participants, as rates have already decreased by about 1% [4] - Constructive capital markets are likely to drive an uptick in M&A activity, which has already rebounded in June [12]

Japan’s central bank should raise rates when its policy board meets this week, and failure to do so will weaken the yen and exacerbate inflation, said Suntory CEO Takeshi Niinami https://t.co/U0V3U2XwvL ...

When someone ask me how I feel about inflation ... https://t.co/YCiW4VepZq ...

So we have a Fed meeting and then we have a jobs report. Let's start with the Fed meeting. The decision itself, not expecting too many fireworks there.But as always, there's a lot to talk about in that press conference, Julia. Absolutely. There's a lot going on.Of course, Chair Powell will put on his best poker face and reassuring voice and tone, which he's very, very good at, and say that, look, that things are there's a lot of disruption going on so far. You know, you've got a little bit of creeping highe ...

Economic Outlook - Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, has been flat from December to May, showing a slight negative trend of -0.21% [3] - The American consumer has been a key driver of GDP, accounting for 70% [4] - The flatness in consumer spending could be due to consumers frontloading imports in anticipation of tariffs [4] Fiscal Policy & Debt Management - The Treasury plans to update on how it intends to finance the nation's debt [5] - The current administration criticized the prior administration for timing the issuance of debt in the bond market [6] - The federal debt has significantly increased due to the current budget bill [7] - An increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio by one point tends to add approximately two basis points to the interest rate [8] Impact of AI - There's hope that AI will generate enough productivity growth to offset some of the financial pressures [9][10] - Historically, technological changes have not had the dramatic productivity-enhancing effects that are being claimed for AI [11] - Relying on AI to solve federal budgeting issues is considered reckless [11]

Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The week includes the Jolt survey, consumer confidence data, and the Fed survey [2] - ADP number is expected to be on the low side, with 82,000 expected [3] - GDP adjustments are anticipated due to import handling [3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator will be released [4] - Non-farm payrolls are expected to be 102,000, but previous reports have surprised to the upside [4] - The Fed meeting and announcement are significant, with potential dissents from Waller and Bowman [5] - There's a very low probability (2.1%) of a Fed rate cut in July, but a 66% probability for September and 63% for December, indicating expectations of two cuts this year [6][7] Tariffs & Economic Impact - The removal of crazy high tariffs and uncertainty about tariffs is noted [9][10] - The focus shifts to the economic impacts of tariffs, including potential inflation and weakened growth [10] - The stock market's reaction to these economic factors is being observed, with some suggesting a potential disconnect between the stock market and the economic outlook [10][11]

Our next guest among those who've said publicly that Fed chair pal should resign as he faces continuing criticism from the president over his policy decisions. Muhammad Alerian is Alon's chief economic adviser. He joins me now.It's nice to see you. Welcome. >> Thank you, Scott.I want to debate this because I'm trying to get my arms around this notion that the Fed share should resign with the markets booming, the economy strong, credit calm, and the only potential issue has nothing to do at all with his own ...

Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, him to lower interest rates. Other than that, what can I tell you? The presidential field trip that pitted the White House's numbers against the Fed chair's facts. It was like almost like a sitcom, that little moment. This was a little crazy watching it yesterday. Where does Chairman Jay Powell go from here? a White House adviser who was at this extraordinary meeting at the central bank, OM Director Russell Vote joins us. ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - A weaker dollar is generally beneficial for manufacturing and S&P 500 revenues, with approximately 30% of S&P 500 revenues originating from abroad [2] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase inflation by roughly 05 percentage points over the next 9 months, posing a challenge given existing inflation levels [3] - The M2 money supply is growing at its fastest rate since 2022, indicating substantial liquidity seeking assets and yield [4] - The debate centers on whether recent sentiment improvements are sufficient for continued S&P 500 growth, considering headwinds from tariffs and student loan payments restarting [5] Labor Market Dynamics - The consensus expects 100,000 new jobs next Friday, which is still steady job growth [7] - Private sector job growth has slowed down in recent months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7] - Deportations running at an annualized rate of approximately 1 million people could reduce job growth [7] - The break-even level for long-run non-farm payrolls is estimated to be around 70,000, lower than the 200,000 in 2023 and 2024 [9] Inflation and Pricing Pressures - The market is actively debating inflation, with the expectation of a 27% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading next week [10] - There is an expectation of a meaningful increase in inflation over the next several months, particularly in imported goods like footwear, apparel, toys, and tools [11] - Companies are currently paying approximately $400 billion annually in tariffs, impacting either consumers through higher prices or companies through lower earnings [14] - Retailers, particularly those affected by tariffs, are expected to experience margin pressure and potentially lower sales [16]